BY MICHAEL KATZ
Photos © Ed Mulholland/FightWireImages.com

While I can’t speak from personal experience, sometimes being the best at something entails unreasonable expectations. For example, it has been written, elsewhere, that even if Floyd Mayweather Jr. knocks Ricky Hatton from the ranks of the unbeaten Saturday, to go along with his earlier victory over future hall of famer Oscar de la Hoya, he should not be considered for fighter of the year because, after all, he was SUPPOSED to win these fights.

Mayweather, being generally regarded as the best boxer in the world, is SUPPOSED to win every fight. Logic thus dictates that the best boxer in the world can NEVER be fighter of the year.

Who says life has to be fair?

Maybe Mayweather doesn’t deserve any consideration for fighter of the year until he gets in a real fight. Maybe that too is unfair because one major reason he doesn’t get into the kind of scraps beloved by the blood-thirsty is that he is too superior to his opposition.

Besides, he flaunts his wealth, talks nonsense and says he’s better than Sugar Ray Robinson (well, yes, only because Ray has been dead 18 years, though I still think Mayweather doesn’t punch as hard). He’s so easy to root against, which of course makes terrific economic sense because Mayweather, despite an often crowd-displeasing style, has now become boxing’s biggest draw. In his home town of Las Vegas, he will probably encounter more fans at the MGM Grand this Saturday of the Manchurian challenger.

My gut feeling, though, is that Mayweather will leave with most fans on his side, at least until he opens up his mouth again.

Unlike most of my learned colleagues, especially on this side of Atlantic, I give Hatton a very real chance of ending a spectacular year with a spectacular upset.

Mind you, I said CHANCE.

The English pub-crawler, which is one of the reasons to root for him of course, has not only the style but the substance to give Mayweather a tough time. He is the don’t-take-no-for-an-answer aggressor in this fight, somewhat like Jose Luis Castillo, who gave the lightweight Mayweather two of his toughest tests back in 2002.

True, it’s been a while since we’ve seen the dazzling Mayweather against someone so much smaller. At 5-foot-8, with a 72-inch reach, Floyd will look like a giant welterweight against the 5-foot-6 junior welterweight champion with a 65-inch wing span. From the outside, with not only longer arms but faster hands, Mayweather figures to have an easy time. Hatton must slip inside those lightning jabs and blurs of combinations and, once in Mayweather’s kitchen, he may still have problems. Mayweather is not easy to hit even when he drops his hands and sticks out his tongue right in your face.

All this, of course, conspires to make Mayweather a lovely overlay as any kind of favorite below 3-1 (last time I looked, he was a bargain at minus $2.60). Hatton, at the buy-back rate of plus $2, should not be overly tempting.

But, yes, he does have a chance and it’s not because his brittle face can beat up Mayweather’s chronically fragile hands.

Hatton, with the supreme confidence of someone with a 43-0 record, has never been held at bay for very long. Of course, as Mayweather says, “the only reason Hatton is 43 and 0 is because he wasn’t fighting anyone – he hasn’t fought 43 Floyd Mayweathers because if he had, he’d be 0 and 43.”

Truly, Hatton’s two greatest triumphs were against the aged, Kostya Tszyu and a much diminished Jose Luis Castillo than the one who had come within a hair of upsetting Mayweather five years ago. Mayweather, who turns 31 in February, may be feeling more aches and pains these days, but he remains very securely in his prime.

That’s not prime beef, however. Mayweather is more sizzle. He did not carry his power up from 130 pounds – neither did de la Hoya, of course – and the question, as raised by Hatton, is does Pretty Boy have enough substance to keep the smaller man away.

That is the heart of the Hatton game plan, acknowledged by the underdog when he said he was more concerned about Mayweather’s power than his speed. The speed, he figures, he can somewhat neutralize, both with his own, and with his constant pressure. But what about Mayweather’s punching power, or lack thereof.

“I think you’ve got to stop me coming at your because I’ll keep coming all night unless you hurt me,” said Hatton. “And has Floyd the power to hurt me?

“I have no doubt at times he might lead me a bit of a merry chase and put me off with his speed and his wonderful boxing ability. But can he do it for 12 rounds and has he got the power to stop me? I mean, Kostya Tszyu couldn’t do it with that murderous right hand.”

Hatton cited how Castillo was able to crowd Mayweather and make a decent living there, especially in their first meeting. Castillo, the Englishman added, did not have the same quickness of foot, for moving side to side and creating new angles, that Hatton figures to see this week.

Mayweather’s Achilles heels may be in his feet. Yes, he is fast and I don’t recall seeing anyone better at escaping from the ropes. But despite his limited success on “Dancing With Stars,” he is not exactly Fred Astaire – or Pernell Whitaker – inside the ring. Often, he is almost too quick for his own good. He gets himself off-balance and that could allow Hatton some real opportunities.

There was a revealing glimpse during one of those “24/7” HBO hypes where Hatton was starting work on a bag and his astute trainer, Billy Graham, immediately shifted his eyes to the floor. Hatton is better than prime Castillo at shifting from side to side, especially in close, where he can bang away happily on Floyd’s body.

Moreover, for all of Mayweather’s denigration of Hatton’s resume, hasn’t exactly been facing a murderer’s row of opponents. Beating this year’s version of de la Hoya does not impress me; in fact, I expected Floyd to do it with a lot more panache than he showed. Last year, he had trouble early with Zab Judah and then outclassed Carlos Baldomir to gain the welterweight laurels. But before that, going back to a prime Castillo five years ago, these were his victims: Victoriano Sosa, Phillip N’dou, Chop Chop Corley, Henry Bruseles, the faded Arturo Gatti and the even more faded Sharmba Mitchell. No wonder there has been a movement in the land to dethrone him from his mythical perch as the best fighter pound-for-pound.

Hillary Clinton, I am told, feels both ways about it.

Not only is Mayweather coming down from toying with de la Hoya at junior middleweight, Hatton is making his second excursion up from 140 pounds and he was hardly impressive in winning a 147-pound title against Luis Collazo last year.

Mayweather seems more involved with peripheral matters. He has worked hard, and gives his “team” much credit, for leading him triumphantly across the line from star boxer to sports icon. He wants to forego his “Pretty Boy” nickname and use “Money.” Madonna could do a song about him (that is, if she’s still around).

I believe Mayweather will be focused enough on the matters at hand, though, to handle what I also believe will be his most difficult task to date. While his speed and skills could bust up Hatton’s face, I think the Englishman will take the favorite to places he’s never been before. And my guess is that Mayweather, who showed his true fighter’s grit when he immediately took a rematch with Castillo when many thought he lost the first bout, will pass spectacularly. I believe he’s more than just a Pretty Boy, I believe he’s about more than money.

I don’t think he’s another Sugar Ray Robinson, but hell, does that really matter considering the current price of crude oil?

But should he, as expected, get past Hatton, he can not “retire” again. A victory Saturday night will leave many of his critics still bitching about how he picks and chooses opponents for low risk at high rewards (no one calls him Stupid Boy). If he really wants to be talked about in the same sentences with the greats of the past, he has to clean the slate – and that means Miguel Cotto for starters.

And let me be the first to say it: Mayweather boxes rings around Cotto. But won’t it be fun to watch him go on the high trapeze where one slip could spell disaster?

PENTHOUSE: It’s been a while since the last blog and there are probably many deserving candidates, but my vote – and it’s my column, remember – is for (drum roll, please) the state of New Jersey. Put away those snickers. Let the land of Secaucus, Camden, Fort Dix and the Atlantic City Boardwalk rejoice. It has finally, after 22 years, dumped Larry (Hap) Hazzard as its boxing czar. Of course, the state which probably leads the nation in incarcerated mayors waited until Ol’ Hap began doing some positive things, like agreeing to use public money to pay for complete physicals for all fighters. But over all, while Hazzard was a world-class referee – though the late Dick Young properly called him a “hot dog” – he was an arrogant bully who demeaned not only the press but his own officials. I’ll never forget him challenging mild-manners Phil Berger of the New York Times to step outside the Waldorf-Astoria press conference and fight him. He was guilty a long time ago of glomming tickets from promoters and used his office to further the careers of relatives, including Larry Hazzard Jr., favored officials and favored promoters. In his last show, he had the infamous Eugenia Williams, she who thought Evander Holyfield had beaten Lennox Lewis at Madison Square Garden, judging again. Whenever someone would mention Larry Hazzard, boxing writers from the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, New York Times and Los Angeles Times would automatically say, “What an asshole!” If you mentioned Larry Hazzard Jr., the proper response was “What an asshole Jr.!” Screw Bernard Hopkins for standing up for him.

OUTHOUSE: Okay, Bob Arum did not direct Manny Pacquiao away from the long-awaited rematch against Juan Manuel Marquez – though he tried to stick him in with another from his stable, David Diaz. But Arum’s remarks following Joan Guzman’s clear-cut victory over another Top Rank representative, Humberto Soto, were his usual sickening bull. Arum said Guzman “ran” and did not deserve a chance at the Pac Man. That’s because Guzman’s boxing ability might give Pacquiao fits (though I believe the Filipino is better than Arum realizes, especially with his improved ability to cut off rings, which I am certain will happen when he spanks Marquez in the rematch). Arum also accused Pernell Whitaker of having a style unfavored by fans because Sweet Pea came so close to defeating the then Top Rank money machine, Oscar de la Hoya, there would be no danger of a rematch – though in a second fight, I believe de la Hoya would have improved enough to make sure his second victory was crystal clear. Hey, this is Arum being Arum, trying to avoid the fights most fans want to see so he can have his bread buttered on both sides. Who really deserves a spot in the loo, on the throne of course, is King Con. How dare this war-mongering boxing promoter, after I pay cash money for his over-the-hill November show of Ricardo Mayorga-Fernando Vargas (as opposed to his over-the-hill January show, which I now definitely will not buy, between Roy Jones Jr. and Felix Trinidad Jr.) sic “my friend and your friend,” George W on us purists? It’s one thing to support the troops, but quite another to promote the man who lied his way into a war that put those troops in danger. And by the way, Donald, it doesn’t matter that you wear camouflage, we’d know you anywhere as a man whose only time served was not for his country but for manslaughter.

Shame on you for such a miserable show, too. Terra Garcia, out 18 months since being dropped five times by Jose Antonio Rivera, came back as wobbly as ever and was taken out early in the third by Roman Karmazin in a rotten mismatch. The semifinal was palatable, if you like slaughters, only by the uncommon bravery of Jessie Feliciano, who took a terrible beating from Kermit the Frog Cintron, who said he fought with one hand after hurting his right in the opening round. Cintron thereby gets a pass on his Feb. 2 date with fellow 147-pound paper-holder, Paul Williams, who quickly found a new dance partner in Carlos Quintana from that deep welterweight talent pool. By the way, the pay-per-view announcers managed to somehow miss most of the punches Cintron was landing. The fight wasn’t close, though I’m sure after the opening blowout, they wanted it to be. The main event was an interesting farce – Vargas entered the ring for his promised “last fight” on legs apparently borrowed from Terra Garcia. Every Mayorga punch wobbled him. I hope Vernon Forrest, who looked quite sharp last weekend, even considering the opposition was Michele Piccirillo, the Italian who dates his fighting days back to the Roman Coliseum, gets his wish to beat up Mayorga.

Just shows that Gary Shaw can produce a show as bad as King’s, what with Antonio Tarver looking like a ghost of his former self while beating Danny Santiago, who somehow was in a Showtime main event, and Luis Maldonado hopelessly outclassed by Nonito Donaire. At least Donaire and Forrest looked good, even against their modest opposition.

DIS AND THAT: Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. should not be given much applause for stopping the undersized Ray Sanchez III. The kid, despite positive reviews elsewhere, looked to me as if he will never be a true contender – too slow. But there he was, pushed by Arum into the main event of a pay-per-view show that featured one current world champion (Ivan Calderon) and one two-time former champion (Jorge Arce).Young Chavez had problems whenever the much smaller Sanchez started to move. His reflexes are not sharp and while he delivers his punches well, I wonder just how strong they will be against a better level of opponent….Calderon is beginning to show slippage at age 32 and now fighting at 108 pounds. The undefeated Puerto Rican southpaw master is lucky that title fights are no longer at 15 rounds. His opponent, Juan Esquer of Mexico, a well-intentioned but limited plodder, was getting to him with his constant pressure. I gave Esquer the final three rounds to wind up with Calderon ahead 116-112….Arce looked pretty good, but then, most guys scoring first-round knockouts look pretty good, and he was fighting a long-in-the-tooth Thai, Medgden Sangsurat, who once knocked out the flyweight Manny Pacquiao the announcers were glad to remind us over and over. This was another case of Top Rank matchmaker Bruce Trampler doing spadework in digging up opposition….By the way, one of the announcers, making his debut as a live commentator, was my old editor at thehouseofboxing.com, Doug Fischer. He looked magnificent in suit and tie and I’m glad to see he did not cut his ponytail. Dougie, one of the nicest guys in the game, noted in his regular job at maxboxing.com that he was a bit nervous interviewing the fighters. He shouldn’t be. Outside of Larry Merchant, no one really does a good job of it on TV – there’s usually more pontificating than interviewing. No one asks probing questions (well, Jim Gray does, but sometimes he goes a bit too far). The problem is that the interviewer is not thinking like a reporter. For example, after the fight, as Doug was talking to Junior, he neglected the opportunity to ask Senior, who was standing there in the ring, what he thought of his kid. He might have asked the great fighter also how was rehab going….Jeff Lacy is the 5-1 favorite in the semifinal at the MGM Grand against Peter Manfredo and if successful, should wind up against the ready-to-be-had Antonio Tarver on a card featuring the top light-heavyweight (Bernard Hopkins’s “real” title notwithstanding), Chad Dawson defending against hardy perennial Glen Johnson….Elsewhere on Saturday night, Arthur Abraham is 20-1 to keep his slice of middleweight supremacy against Wayne Elcock of Birmingham (the one in England, where I was the first kid of my block to be married) in Basel and in Belfast, John Duddy is 4-1 over 36-year-old Howard Eastman (since Duddy can’t fight very much, Eastman at the 3-1 buy-back rate is tempting)….With the announcement of Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez II joining Israel Vazquez-Rafael Marquez III in the opening quarter, it looks like 2008 could be another great year….But then, there are always the alphabets: the WBO has gone way past the OUTHOUSE in its machinations, the most recent of which was to deny Kendall Holt an immediate rematch with Ricardo Torres. Maybe if someone threw beer cans at them….