Daily Bread Mailbag: Ward-Kovalev, GGG-Brook, Broner, More

By Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards

The Daily Bread Mailbag returns with Stephen 'Breadman' Edwards discussing Sergey Kovalev vs Andre Ward, Gennady Golovkin vs. Kell Brook, Danny Garcia, Adrien Broner and more.

Bread,
 
When I’m in Philly we’ve got to get together schedule permitting.
 
Santa Cruz gets hit too much.
 
Kovalev WAS exposed a bit, he didn’t like that fight himself. All of the things that Chilemba did to him, Ward does better.
 
Ward’s a crisper but not power puncher, and his defense is much better. Kovalev didn’t like the body shots either, and nobody in the past has gotten to his body like that.  Chilemba landed those sneaky left hooks and right hands on Kovalev. If you look up sneaky in the dictionary you’ll see Andre Ward’s picture there. Virgil Hunter was watching this fight taking notes.
 
Brand is a brawler type fighter he’s not a big puncher but he’ll swarm Ward like Kovalev will try to do.
 
Brook is a good fighter and he’s getting his chance, he’s seasoned, but I did think he lost the first fight against Carson Jones or he wouldn’t have given Jones a rematch. Jones is a journeyman not a big name fighter. Brook will extend GGG until the 7th or 8th then it’ll be over. Brook isn’t the fighter that Kasim Ouma was. Ouma was an awkward southpaw, Brook is an ultra-linear orthodox fighter who stands up straight. He was able to clinch Shawn Porter, but he won’t be able to do that against a natural middleweight like GGG.
 
I agree with you about GGG in the sense that everybody says he’s a non-factor but yet they won’t fight him.
 
Postol will BEAT Bud Crawford! There will be a rematch. I love Crawford but he’s beginning to read his own press clippings and he’s not improving anymore. He gets hit a lot too.
 
Arreola ate himself out of the heavyweight picture and will take a beating against Wilder. Even though I think Wilder has no legs he’s got the great equalizer-punching power.
 
Smith will give Canelo a BIG run for his money, the outcome will be controversial.

Bread’s Response: Sure Rob. I can’t talk boxing with just anybody. You’re one of the few….

Santa Cruz does get hit but his volume has always hid his lack of D. In fact most volume punchers are that way.

I agree. If I was a Krusher bettor I would be scared to death. Ward can emulate Chilemba and put his sauce on it and cook the Krusher.

Brook may have won his fight with Jones mathematically but he lost the event, hence the rematch. What must be noted was the rematch was held at a higher weight. That tells me Brook thought he struggled to make 147. I say if Brook is not overwhelmed early he makes a fight of it.

No one except Andre Ward wanted to fight GGG. Period. Kell Brook is a GUN for taking this fight.

I know lots of people who are secretly taking Postol. I was very impressed at his performance vs Matthysse. But I always thought Matthysse was just slightly overrated.  Matthysse is an excellent fighter but no one remembers he was basically 50/50 with Zab Judah and Devon Alexander. Regardless if the fights could go either way or not they were super tight. A horror movie monster does not have to go 50/50 with those versions of Judah and Alexander….

However, I am very impressed with Postol. He has great balance. He fights a little chippy. He hits harder than his ko% suggest. He’s very long for the weight and he’s in his absolute prime. Terrance Crawford is my pick but this is a real fight for him. He has his work cut out for him and he can’t afford to take unnecessary punishment early. Postol punches with all knuckles and they will damage you cosmetically. Postol also knows how to control a lead. This is a great matchup.

I think Smith will last the distance. He seems strong and durable. But Canelo’s hand speed and judge friendly punches are going to be Smith’s undoing. Out of all of the young junior middleweights, Smith’s style fits Canelo’s style the best. That’s why he was picked…..

What the hell is wrong with the PBC? How could AB and DSG turn down 4 million to fight an old Manny? This would double the career paydays for both. Am I missing something? Broner is asking for a 10 million guarantee and Garcia dismissed 4 million.

Bread’s Response: Read this very carefully my friend. First off in these situations you must remain very objective. Now that you have cleared your mind let’s look at both cases separately.

First you have Broner. I think Broner is Top Rank’s top choice for good reason. Broner has a huge following on raunchy social media, he would gladly play the heel and Pacquiao would be the favorite to beat him. Broner understands that he’s the most marketable possible opponent so he’s trying to play it up. I haven’t paid too much attention to what’s going on but I will take your word for the 10 million dollar guarantee. In my opinion that’s a lot to guarantee Broner. Bernard Hopkins who was an all time great got 10 mill vs Oscar De La Hoya. And Canelo Alvarez got10 millt vs Floyd Mayweather. Broner is not in their leagues as of yet.

But and this is a big but, I think Broner has some serious leverage. No one wants to see Pacquiao vs Bradley 4 Or Pacquiao vs Marquez 5. Terrance Crawford is a terrific fighter but Broner has much more star power. Victor Postol has no real fan base. Jesse Vargas is also very good but he hasn’t caught on in the public yet. He’s Chris Algieri as far as star power. That’s Top Rank’s line up as far as in house options.

Broner understands this. That’s why he was the 1st choice. I don’t know what the PPV upside offer was. That’s important. If Broner could hype this fight up and him and Manny did 1 million buys he could be a very rich young man. I don’t know what the “upside” offer was and I would have to factor in what Tim Bradley and Brandon Rios got in their upside offer to determine if Broner made the right call.

There are ways they can get the fight done. Manny has a guarantee of 20 million that also has to be considered. I personally think Manny vs Broner does great numbers, 700k plus. There is no right answer because I don’t know all the details. I will say this though. Broner calling Bob Arum names and being disrespectful towards him is counterproductive to getting the fight done.

Everyone seemed to go crazy about the Danny Garcia negotiations. I never had an opinion or made or comment….I knew if there were negotiations they couldn’t have been but so long. Maybe a day or two. Now Arum comes out and says he never talked to Danny. So all of the people who went crazy and said Danny was a spoiled brat for not taking 4 million are now either calling Arum a liar or eating crow. There is so much that goes on behind the scenes that “we” don’t know about, unless you get a valid source or are part of the negotiations. The media is driven by their subjective preference. They don’t usually care about the truth, they care about what they want to be the truth.

Now let’s see how it plays out before we jump the gun. By seeing how it plays out let’s research the truth before we jump to conclusions.

Yo bro how do you think Wilder looked? What’s up with him hurting his hand. This is like the second or third time. Is it the gloves or the handwrap? Also what’s up with all of these female boxing experts on social media? I see you are careful with your comments but the only people I respect are you, Dougie, Max and the Lee Wylie dude who makes the videos. I’m not a sexist but I can’t take it any longer.

Bread’s Response: Wilder looked like Wilder to me. He did what he was supposed to do. Nothing more to really say about the fight.

I don’t know why he’s hurting hand. It could be several things.  He could simply punch too hard for his bones and ligaments to take . It could be the wrap but I don’t want to blame anyone. Wilder has an experienced corner I assume he gets a good hand wrap  before fights. He does wear MX Everlast gloves. They’re great gloves but they’re really soft. He may need a more therapeutic glove like the Everlast Protex or Power Lock. He also could have a lack of certain nutrients, which makes his bones brittle. Hopefully it gets corrected, Wilder has some huge legacy defining fights coming up.

What's up Bread?

How do you think Canelo Alvarez does against the following fighters at 160 (besides GGG as you have already stated that you see the fight as 65-35 in Golovkin's favor but Canelo is not upside down in the fight):

1. Daniel Jacobs
2. Billy Joe Saunders
3. Andy Lee
4. David Lemieux
5. Chris Eubank Jr.

As a side note, Saunders is the only guy on this list with two wins against the current ESPN top 10 (Andy Lee and Chris Eubank Jr.).

Peace,
William in West Palm

Bread’s Response: Good question. I think Saunders and Andy Lee have fought more top guys than the rest because they are the most vulnerable. Sometimes when a fighter has a better resume you have to look at the total picture. Sometimes that reason is because that fighter is good but not as good as some of the other options that are around. I think this is the case with Saunders and Lee.

I think Canelo vs Jacobs is 50/50. Jacobs is fast, big and can punch. But I actually think Canelo has a bit more experience vs elite fighters, he’s smoother and a better natural boxer. Good fight.

Canelo vs Saunders. I would slightly favor Canelo. Saunders can box his butt off but my gut tells me he’s peaked out.

Canelo beats Andy Lee.

Canelo vs Lemiuex is a shootout. I like Canelo. Better set of whiskers and all around skill.

Canelo vs Eubank. Tough fight to call. I think Eubank is improving. He also has a serious workrate and Canelo fights in burst. 50/50 again.

What's up Bread?

Let me start by saying congratulations to you and J-Rock for landing your long-awaited title shot this coming October.  I certainly wish you both the best against Charlo. 

My question and comment is in regards to Terrence Crawford's apparent vulnerability to overhand rights while in the southpaw stance.  I recently re-watched Bud's fights against Yuriorkis Gamboa, Hank Lundy, and Dierry Jean and all three opponents were able to land that shot fairly consistently before Crawford made his usual adjustments to turn the tide in his favor.  Do you think this is significant at all? Do you think that Terrence has been able to sit back and take inventory because he doesn't fear the opponents power? He appears to have a solid chin but I just wanted to get your take on whether there is something there that Postol could potentially exploit.  Viktor looks like more of a straight, 1-2 type of fighter so I can't wait to hear your take.

Peace,

William in West Palm

Bread’s Response: There is a difference between a straight right hand and an overhand right. Crawford does seem vulnerable early. Some fighters are just like that. They need a few rounds to gauge the incoming punches. Believe it or not Floyd Mayweather is a little bit like that but he’s better defensively than Crawford. But look at his fights vs Zab Judah, Shane Mosley and Manny Pacquiao. He got caught with hot stuff early only to make an adjustment and not be caught with it later.

I like Crawford to break Postol down and win the fight. Until Crawford goes down 2 or 3 times early or has to come from behind to score a stoppage to win I’m not going to label his slower starts as an Achilles heel. He adjusts pretty quickly in my opinion. 

Breadman,

Disappointed about the talk coming out from Arum that Adrian Broner passed up $4MM to fight pacquiao.   this bothers me on a few levels--I think it is a bad business and boxing move for Broner.    In terms of business, I go back to my negotiations class in business school--the threshold question is always what is your BATNA-best alternative to a negotiated agreement meaning what is your best alternative if you walk away.    Unless he has a deal to fight Mayweather, why walk away from $4MM, when you probably make $1MM to 1.3MM per fight.   you have to fight 3-4 times over two years to make what you are going to make in 36 minutes.   In terms of boxing, there is no bigger draw or opponent for him to fight (other than Mayweather) AND Pacquiao is beatable.    Also, in terms of fame, glory, and street "cred" there is no bigger name to fight other than Mayweather.   Finally, if you fight him close or even win, it sets up a lucrative rematch.   As I see it, it is the perfect platform, opportunity, opponent and payday out there and he walked away.    tell me why this doesn't make business sense.   I think people watched Floyd and try to be Floyd, but they aren't Floyd!    Arum tried to goad Floyd to fight the boogeyman Margarito for $8MM and put him on blast but Floyd had a great BATNA--he passed on this fight but his subsequent fight (either againt Baldomir or mosely) was for $8,000,001 but there is no 4,000,001 fight for Broner.

 My second topic is Deontay Wilder- I love his length, athleticism and personality.   however, I think he is beginning to practice bad habits.    his step jab is fast, accurate and powerful.   he could have beat Arreola with the jab almost single handedly, but I saw him pawing with it versus snapping it and only using it for offense.  with his length that jab could be the first line of defense as well as offense but because he didn't crank it out-arreola could get a lot closer than he should have without resetting.  As such, he had to spin out or step back---he was never at risk in doing this versus arreoloa but against longer heavyweights or bigger more athletic punchers(Anthony Joshua) he can get caught as he is backing out or spinning out.    He also needs to shorten up the hook he throws off the jab.   as athletic as he is I know he can do and with a tactician like breland I know he knows how, but it seemed he was focused on the show not practicing good behaviors.   what did you see?   

Bread’s Response: I can tell you are an educated person. You make a lot of sense. I don’t quite know if Broner made the right move because I don’t know all of the details behind the offer. Especially his upside to the PPV. But if he doesn’t have a 4 million dollar fight waiting in the wings and if his legal troubles curtail his career which they look they eventually will then he may have made a big mistake.

I want to add one thing about business class that I think you may like. Market value and past trends. I think it’s important to factor in Pacquiao’s guarentees vs Tim Bradley and Brandon Rios, and factor what they were paid in PPV back end proceeds. Those numbers to me are extremely important. Because if Adrien Broner was offered less than Bradley and/or Rios in either spot or if Pacquiao’s 20 million dollar guarantee was not in place for those fights, he can counter argue and say why the 20 million dollar trend with me and he can claim his market value is higher than Bradley’s and Rios’s.

I saw Wilder trying evolve. Chris Arreola is the perfect guy to practice things on in a real fight. He used his left hand more than he usually does. But you’re correct it’s no where near as educated as it could be. There are various jabs that can be used. Bait jabs, Rhythm jabs, Scoring jabs, counter jabs and defensive jabs. Wilder seems to throw the same jab every time which can be dangerous vs an elite fighter. Wilder is still learning and hopefully his jab becomes more educated. Because as you stated when he fights someone his height with his athleticism eventually that same jab will be timed.

I like Wilder. He earned my respect because he was willing to go to Russia to fight Povetkin. I also respect the fact that he’s enrolled in VADA. But he is very emotional and he does play to the crowd. I don’t find it offensive yet but I can see it coming back and haunting him one day.  

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