CompuBox Review: Judah-Matthysse, Guerrero-Escobedo

by Lee Groves/CompuBox

On paper, Saturday night’s crossroads battle between junior welterweights Zab Judah and Lucas Matthysse was worth salivating over. But in the ring, all it did was leave a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

Judah lost a grand opportunity to re-ignite the 140-pound star that shone so brightly a decade ago while Matthysse’s late-round rush left him asking what could have been had he started his finishing kick a round or two earlier. The judges found this race almost too close to call while fans and media were left to digest yet another scoring controversy.

Judges Joseph Pasquale and Hilton Whitaker saw Judah a 115-112 and 114-113 winner while Waleska Roldan had Matthysse leading 114-113. The final CompuBox numbers saw each man dominating his preferred categories. Judah ruled the jabs (87 of 496, 18 percent to 18 of 250, 7 percent) while Matthysse out-did his rival in power shots, at least in terms of volume (147 of 415, 35 percent to 63 of 138, 46 percent). The grand total reflected a slight lead for Matthysse as he went 165 of 665 (25 percent) to Judah’s 150 of 634 (24 percent).

A deeper look into the round-by-round stats confirmed what most eyes had seen – a fight played out in two distinctive parts. Over the first eight rounds, Judah piled up a 101-85 lead in total connects while throwing just seven more punches (423-416). Fighting with respectful caution, Judah averaged 43.9 jabs per round but only nine power shots per round and saw diametrically opposed results. Yes, Judah led 66-13 in jab connects but he landed just 18 percent of them while his 35 of 72 power punch performance translated to 48.6 percent marksmanship.

Matthysse’s attack in the first eight was balanced but largely ineffective. Throwing 24.8 jabs per round and 27.1 power shots per round, the Argentine landed just 6.5 percent of his 199 jabs but an encouraging 33.2 percent of his 217 power punches. In rounds, Judah held a 4-2-2 lead in overall connects and a 7-1 bulge in landed jabs while Matthysse enjoyed a sweep in power connects.

Rounds nine through 12 told a far different tale as Matthysse jammed eight rounds of work into his last four while Judah continued to cruise at the same speed.

Upping his overall punch rate to 62.25 from 52 and his power output to 49.5 from 27.125, Matthysse created gulfs of 80-49 in total connects and 75-28 in power connects in the last four while Judah decelerated from 52.875 to 52.75. Matthysse swept all four rounds in total connects and power shots while conceding the jab race to Judah 4-0 in rounds and 21-5 in connects.

Matthysse’s massive come-from-behind move and 10th round knockdown served to wipe out memories of the dreary eight rounds that preceded it, rounds that Judah appeared to control with his mobility and more-accurate-than-usual jab.

The PunchZone maps further amplified each man’s fight plan. Matthysse slowed Judah’s movement in the late rounds by hammering his body 99 times, 63 with left hands and 36 with rights while balancing out his connects to the head (16 with the left, 29 with the right while 20 connects targeted the chin). Meanwhile, Judah focused his attack on Matthysse’s head as his rights struck 67 times, his left 36 and 26 struck the chin. His long-range boxing limited his body attack as just 16 rights and four lefts hit the mark. Matthysse registered one low blow while Judah remained clean.

By nearly pulling off the upset before HBO’s cameras in the vital New York/New Jersey media market, Matthysse made his case for more important fights in the U.S. while the 33-year-old Judah must reassess his standing in boxing’s most talent-laden division.

*

In the lightweight co-feature, Robert Guerrero used two thunderous knockdowns in rounds three and six to post a well-received unanimous decision over Vicente Escobedo, who said before the fight a loss would prompt him to return to 130.

Guerrero, a former 126-pound champion who looks strong at lightweight, enjoyed only marginal edges in the final stats – 179-150 in total connects, 34-20 in jab connects and 145-130 in landed power shots. Escobedo was also slightly more accurate overall (31 percent to 29) and in power shots (42 percent to 41) but Guerrero ruled most of the rounds with superior volume (61.4 to 48.3 overall, 26.2 to 17.7 in jabs and 35.2 to 30.6 in power shots).

The margins were somewhat deceiving due to Escobedo’s rally in the final three rounds. Over the first seven, Guerrero out-landed Escobedo 110-89 overall and 88-81 in power shots but in the last three Escobedo closed Guerrero’s margins to 69-61 overall and 57-49 in power shots. Guerrero out-landed Escobedo in eight of the 10 rounds overall and 6-3-1 in power connects. Given the southpaw-orthodox pairing, the jabs were largely neutralized.

The PunchZone maps showed that Guerrero’s rights to the head were vital to his success as he struck that area 71 times as opposed to 37 times with the left and 30 to the chin. His 41 body connects were almost equally distributed as his lefts hit 20 times and his right 21 times.

Escobedo’s attack was more balanced. Of his 89 head connects 40 were produced by lefts, 37 by rights while 12 hit the chin. His 61 body punches were also distributed well as lefts produced 32 hits and rights registered 29 strikes. Neither landed a low blow.