By CompuBox (photo © Ed Mulholland/FightWireImages)
Both Joe Calzaghe (45-0, 32 KOs) and Roy Jones (52-4, 38 KOs) are considered among history’s greatest campaigners at 168 pounds. The Welshman recently concluded the third longest reign in terms of time in boxing history (10 years 353 days) by giving up his WBO super middleweight title while Jones produced some of his very best performances in defense of the IBF belt he held from November 1994 to October 1996.
On November 8 at Madison Square Garden, the careers of “Super Joe” and “Superman” will finally intersect when they meet for Calzaghe’s Ring Magazine light heavyweight belt and the defending champion is a 3-to-1 favorite to retain it. At age 36 Calzaghe is viewed as being at the zenith of a long and prosperous career while at 39 Jones is seen as being past his best but better than the nadir he reached after losing three consecutive fights in 17 months to Antonio Tarver (twice) and Glen Johnson. The intrigue of this fight can be captured in two questions: First, can Calzaghe bury Jones under an avalanche of punches and second, has Jones recaptured enough of his former self to turn back a man who hasn’t lost a single fight since his amateur days in the early 1990s?
To examine how this fight potentially will unfold, a look back at each fighter’s recent history will be discussed. On November 3, 2007 before more than 50,000 fans in Cardiff, Wales, Calzaghe cemented his status as the world’s best 168-pounder – and a future Hall of Famer – with a decision win over previously undefeated WBA/WBC counterpart Mikkel Kessler. The bout pitted a speedy southpaw with a quirky volume-punching style against a brutally effective textbook boxer-puncher and for the first six rounds the momentum shifted back and forth as each executed the best aspects of their games. During that stretch Calzaghe was 131 of 480 (27.3 percent, 80 punches per round) to Kessler’s 87 of 279 (31.2 percent, 46.5 punches per round) but while Calzaghe landed more jabs (74-41) and power punches (57-46) Kessler was more accurate with his hardest blows (46.5 percent to 29.8 percent).
With the result still in great doubt, Calzaghe was urged to raise his game in the final six rounds. That he did, and to great effect. In round seven through 12, Calzaghe throttled up to 88.3 punches per round, out-landing Kessler 154-86 overall, 63-11 in jabs (including 35-1 in the final three rounds) and 91-75 in power shots. What made the surge so stunning was that he dominated a Kessler who – with the exception of the jab numbers – was still operating at similar levels to the first six rounds. Kessler actually threw more punches per round (51) and upped his power punch output (75 of 160 as opposed to 46 of 99) and accuracy (46.9 percent to 46.5 percent). Despite that, Kessler ended up losing by 117-111, 116-112 (twice).
Against Kessler Calzaghe was 285 of 1,010 overall (28 percent) to the Dane’s 173 of 585 (30 percent) while pulling away in jabs (137 of 550, 25 percent to 52 of 326, 16 percent) and power shots (148 of 460, 32 percent to 121 of 259, 47 percent). He out-landed Kessler in 11 of 12 rounds overall and led 34-2 in the combined overall/jab/power punch breakdown.
On April 19, 2008 in Las Vegas Calzaghe made his long-awaited debut on U.S. soil against former middleweight and defending Ring light heavyweight champion Bernard Hopkins. Like Calzaghe-Kessler, this bout matched two deeply contrasting styles in terms of output and it was “The Executioner’s” task to spread sludge all over Calzaghe’s high-revving engine to the point that he could then break out his bag of tricks and frustrate his way to victory.
Hopkins gained an instant foothold by decking Calzaghe with a gorgeous counter right in the opening moments and in over the first five rounds he successfully slowed the challenger’s attack. While Calzaghe held significant numerical advantages over the first five rounds (75-39 in total connects, 12-3 in jabs and 63-33 in power shots), the key was that Calzaghe was held to 52.8 punches per round as opposed to the 70 he averaged in his other fights. Meanwhile, Hopkins was operating at 31.6 punches per round, a typical and comfortable pace for him.
From round six onward, the pace – and the fight – turned Calzaghe’s way. Calzaghe lifted his output to 63.3 punches per round and because Hopkins was forced to play catch-up he had to throw more often to keep pace (44.3 punches per round).
In those rounds Calzaghe was 157 of 443 (35.4 percent) to Hopkins’ 88 of 310 (28.4 percent) overall, 33 of 129 in jabs (25.6 percent) to Hopkins’ 8 of 64 (12.5 percent) and 124 of 314 in power shots (39.5 percent) to Hopkins’ 80 of 246 (32.5 percent).
Calzaghe was 232 of 707 (33 percent) overall, averaging 58.9 punches per round while Hopkins was 127 of 468 (27 percent) and averaged 39 punches per round. The Welshman predictably out-did Hopkins in jabs (45 of 224, 20 percent) to 11 of 93, 12 percent) and power shots (187 of 483, 39 percent to 116 of 375, 31 percent). He out-landed Hopkins in every round and led 33-1-2 in the categorical breakdowns.
Jones was once known for his phenomenal speed and incredible accuracy in terms of overall punches and power shots. In the 23 fights tracked by CompuBox that ended with his decision victory over John Ruiz, Jones averaged 44.3 punches per round overall with 45.9 percent accuracy while throwing 30.2 power shots that connected at an astonishing 55.1 percent rate. His opponents could only muster 37.1 punches per round with 26.9 percent accuracy overall and 20.7 power shots per round at a 33.8 percent rate. The plus-19 in overall percentage and the plus-21.3 in power shots show why Jones built a 49-1 (38 KO) record to that point.
The wheels began to come off once he agreed to fight mandatory challenger Antonio Tarver for the first time in November 2003, shedding 24 pounds from his in-ring weight against Ruiz and struggling to a majority decision against the gifted and fired-up “Magic Man.” CompuBox has tracked all seven fights during this part of Jones’ career – a period that resulted in a 4-3 (0 KO) record – and the numbers illuminate the differences between the Jones of his prime and the man who is fighting now.
Since beating Ruiz, Jones has averaged 33.6 punches per round overall (10.7 less than before) with 33.4 percent accuracy, 14.4 percentage points less than in his prime. He now averages 10.3 jabs per round, 3.8 fewer than before and 1.8 connects, 1.9 fewer than at his best. His 23.2 power attempts and 9.5 connects are seven and 7.1 less than before respectively, and while Jones’ power connect rate of 40.7 percent is still very respectable, it is still nearly 15 percent below his prime years.
His opponents, however, post dramatically better numbers these days because Jones no longer has the supernatural speed to inhibit them from launching their attacks. Their 49.8 attempts per round are 12.7 more than during Jones’ prime and the connect gap has turned from a plus-10.3 to a minus-2.7 from Jones’ perspective. The 0.7-jab connect edge Jones had at his best is now a two-jab deficit and the 9.6 power connect gap for Jones is a 0.6-punch deficit.
Jones’ recent performances against Prince Badi Ajamu, the previously unbeaten Anthony Hanshaw and a comebacking Felix Trinidad have been encouraging because he has shown flashes of the skills that made him a long-time pound-for-pound king and a sure-fire Hall of Famer. His bout against Hanshaw on July 14, 2007 in Biloxi, Miss., offered a revealing glimpse of how Jones might approach Calzaghe’s formidable numbers game.
Hanshaw threw the kitchen sink at Jones in the first three rounds as he went 33 of 83, 28 of 69 and 24 of 86 overall while Jones laid on the ropes and patiently took advantage of the openings his opponent’s all-out attack presented. While Hanshaw held significant numerical advantages in rounds one through eight (209-109 in overall connects, 606-254 in overall attempts, 209-49 in attempted jabs, 175-94 in power connects and 397-205 in power attempts) Jones was the more accurate man. He landed 42.9 percent of his overall blows to Hanshaw’s 34.5, he connected on 30.6 percent of his jabs to Hanshaw’s 16.3 and held a slight edge in power shot percentage (45.9 to 44.1). Hanshaw’s volume game allowed him to pile up a 21-3 lead in terms of categorical breakdowns. In rounds one to eight Hanshaw averaged 75.8 punches per round to Jones’ 31.8, both of which are far removed from the light heavyweight average of 53.9.
Jones’ calm demeanor paid off in rounds nine through 12 as he out-landed Hanshaw in three of the four rounds overall, posted advantages in seven of 12 categories and scored an eye-catching knockdown in the 11th.
In the final four rounds Jones closed the gaps considerably as he was out-landed 72-68 overall and 62-59 in power shots but out-shined Hanshaw in terms of accuracy (44.4 percent to 27.6 percent overall and 48.8 percent to 32.8 percent in power shots). Hanshaw’s volume persuaded one judge to turn in a 114-113 card for Jones while Jones’ accuracy and knockdown persuaded the two others to see the bout 117-110 and 118-109.
Jones was 177 of 407 (43 percent) overall to Hanshaw’s 281 of 867 (32 percent). The younger Hanshaw held similar numerical edges in jabs (44 of 281, 16 percent to 24 of 81, 30 percent) and power shots (237 of 586, 40 percent to 153 of 326, 47 percent), but Jones won out because he believed that patience is a virtue.
Felix Trinidad attempted a similar strategy in the early rounds against Jones during their January 19, 2008 bout in New York, though to far less dramatic effect. In the first six rounds Trinidad was 88 of 272 overall (32.4 percent) to Jones’ 75 of 236 (31.7 percent) and held a 31-9 edge in jab connects. Jones, however, matched “Tito” power shot for power shot and the result was a 66-57 edge in connects for the naturally bigger man. The second half of the bout saw Jones pull away, both on the scorecards and in the statistics. Jones out-landed Trinidad 97-72 overall despite throwing 34 fewer blows (246-280) and out-performed the Puerto Rican icon 81-44 in power shots, boasting a prime-like 51.6 percent connect rate to Trinidad’s 33.6. Jones out-landed Trinidad in five of the final six rounds, held 46-28 and 36-18 edges in overall connects and power shots respectively in rounds 10-12 and amassed a 40 percent or better power connect rate in 10 of the 12 rounds while Trinidad surpassed it in only three rounds.
Against Trinidad Jones was 172 of 482 (36 percent) overall to Trinidad’s 160 of 552 (29 percent). Trinidad out-did Jones in jabs (59 of 259, 23 percent to Jones’ 25 of 160, 16 percent) while Jones turned the tables in power shots (147 of 322, 46 percent to 101 of 293, 34 percent).
Prediction: The result of this fight hinges entirely on how Calzaghe approaches Jones because at this point Jones can not hope to match his activity. In the early rounds against Hopkins, Calzaghe allowed himself to be somewhat hypnotized by Hopkins’ style but once he adjusted it was off to the races. The same pattern emerged against Kessler, though for different reasons. Both are cerebral fighters who like to figure out their opponents before going all out, so the first half of the fight will be a close affair with each enjoying spurts of success – Jones’ with single counter shots and Calzaghe with flurries. Once the fight reaches the seventh Calzaghe will overwhelm Jones with an avalanche of punches en route to a comfortable points victory.