By CompuBox
For only the seventh time in boxing history, two U.S. Olympic teammates will fight one another as professionals when former middleweight champion Jermain Taylor (the 156-pound representative in the 2000 Sydney games) fights onetime super middleweight king Jeff Lacy (who filled the 165-pound slot). The bout will take place at Nashville’s Vanderbilt University Memorial Gymnasium November 15 and the 30-year-old Taylor (27-2-1, 17 KO) is a solid 5-to-1 favorite to defeat the 31-year-old Lacy (24-1, 17 KO).
On paper the odds seem odd because Taylor has lost his last two fights while Lacy has won three in a row. When one looks deeper, however, Taylor is favored because he has looked better in his two defeats to Kelly Pavlik than Lacy has in his wins over Vitali Tsypko, Peter Manfredo and Epifanio Mendoza – all of which went the 10 round distance and two of which were unimpressive majority decisions.
Lacy fought Manfredo on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather-Ricky Hatton pay-per-view telecast and the bout saw several shifts of momentum. “The Pride of Providence” started the fight well as in the first two rounds he was 28 of 101 overall to Lacy’s 11 of 71 while out-jabbing “Left Hook” 11-1. The gap closed considerably in the third as Manfredo out-landed Lacy 19-15 overall and the ex-Olympian enjoyed his most lopsided round in the fourth as he went 20 of 69 to Manfredo’s 8 of 42. Following a quiet fifth and sixth rounds, Lacy surged in the seventh and especially the 10th to put the fight away. While both gunned for a big finish in the final round Lacy reached highs in total connects (25), total attempts (91), power shot connects (25) and attempts (82).
The numbers reflected the closeness of the bout as Lacy was 132 of 557 overall (24 percent to Manfredo’s 127 of 470 (27 percent). While Manfredo out-jabbed Lacy 24-11 on 18 more attempts (157-139), the ex-champion pulled it out by landing 121 of his 418 power shots (29 percent) to Manfredo’s 103 of 313 (33 percent). Lacy’s 55.7 punches per round was slightly above the divisional average of 54.8 while Manfredo’s 47 blows was below the norm.
Lacy’s most recent effort against Mendoza on July 23 in Cabazon, Calif., was a tale of two fights that nearly ended even. Though Lacy was wobbled in the second round from a big right, he controlled most of the first five rounds by burrowing inside and landing short but hurtful punches. In that stretch Lacy out-landed Mendoza in four of the five rounds en route to a 121-80 connect advantage overall. He landed seven more jabs (24-17) on 24 fewer attempts (88-112) and out-slugged the long-armed Mendoza 97-63, landing 44 percent of his 222 power shots attempts while Mendoza connected on 34 percent of his 183 attempts. In rounds three and four alone Lacy enjoyed a 65-33 overall connect edge.
The fight began to turn in the sixth when Mendoza began to establish his long-range punching and in the eighth the Colombian had Lacy on the verge of a KO defeat. Lacy saved himself by tackling Mendoza into the ropes, a maneuver that Lacy admitted afterward was done on purpose. Still, Mendoza hurt him again moments after the action resumed and he carried the momentum through the ninth.
In rounds six through nine Mendoza was 92 of 208 (44.2 percent) to Lacy’s 65 of 167 (38.9 percent). That edge was built on the strength of a 74-42 overall edge in the seventh through ninth and a 35-15 bulge in power shots in the eighth and ninth. Meanwhile Lacy slowed his attack considerably as he dropped from 62 punches per round in the first five rounds to 41.75 in that stretch while Mendoza dropped from 59 to 52.
The final round was the difference maker as Mendoza could only muster 29 punches and eight connects while Lacy was 13 of 35 overall and landed eight of his 11 jabs to keep the Colombian bomber at bay.
Lacy held slight edges in all departments as he produced more connects (199-180) on fewer attempts (512-532), out-jabbed Mendoza 46-33 on 50 less tries (131-181) and earned a six-punch margin (153-147) on 30 more attempts (381-351). His 51.2 punches per round was slightly below the divisional norm of 54.8 but his 19.9 connects were better than the average of 17.3 per round.
Before Taylor faced Pavlik the first time in September 2007, “Bad Intentions” was criticized for his tepid but winning efforts against Bernard Hopkins (twice), Cory Spinks and Kassim Ouma as well as his draw against Ronald “Winky” Wright. But against Pavlik, a rangy and powerful volume puncher, Taylor barreled in with guns blazing. After a first round that saw Pavlik out-land Taylor 43-26 the Arkansan turned on the after-burners in round two as he landed an astounding 52 of 75 overall (69 percent) and 42 of his 50 power shots (84 percent), an attack that had Pavlik down and nearly out. The Youngstown native, however, showed he possessed championship level recuperative powers by riding out the storm and mounting a withering assault in the next four rounds.
In rounds three through six Pavlik was 112 of 310 overall (36.1 percent, 77.5 punches per round) to Taylor’s 99 of 210 (47.1 percent, 52.5 punches per round) while amassing a 64-46 bulge in power connects. That steady attack led to the dramatic finish in round seven that saw Pavlik batter Taylor into a helpless state. In that round Pavlik landed 23 of 48 overall (47.9 percent) and 15 of 28 power shots (53.6 percent) to Taylor’s 5 of 12 (41.7 percent).
Despite the definitive ending Taylor was by far the more accurate fighter. He out-landed Pavlik 182-180 on 94 fewer attempts (369-460), meaning he landed at a 49 percent rate to Pavlik’s 39. The power numbers were even more dramatic as Taylor connected on 65 percent (105 of 162) to Pavlik’s 48 percent (100 of 210). While Pavlik landed three more jabs (80-77) he had to throw 43 more (250-207) to do so.
Taylor chose to exercise the immediate rematch clause but the first bout’s excitement made it an intriguing attraction. To accommodate Taylor’s inability to make 160 the fight was contracted at 166 and both hit the beam at 164. The rematch wasn’t nearly as compelling as the original but the pattern established in the first fight held up in that Pavlik was the more active while Taylor was the more accurate.
Taylor fought a more disciplined fight by staying off the ropes and firing from more comfortable range. The problem was that while he was far more precise he didn’t generate enough offense to counteract Pavlik’s steady work.
In the first six rounds Pavlik was 127 of 411 (30.9 percent, 68.5 punches per round) while Taylor was 99 of 233 (42.5 percent, 38.8 punches per round). As expected Pavlik held numerical edges in jab connects (72-57) and power connects (55-42) but Taylor was at least within shouting distance. The bout’s second half, however, saw the margins bulge markedly as Pavlik out-connected Taylor 140-79 overall, 72-45 in jabs and 68-34 in power shots, all while increasing his average output to 72.3 while Taylor slipped to 37.2. Taylor topped 40 percent in power connects in seven of the 12 rounds but none in the final four rounds while Pavlik exceeded that threshold four times but twice in the final four rounds. In the final two rounds Pavlik produced connect advantages of 44-21 overall and 30-11 in power shots, enabling him to punctuate a 117-111, 116-112, 115-113 decision.
The rematch saw Pavlik land 147 of 487 (30 percent) to Taylor’s 111 of 270 (41 percent). Pavlik was 85 of 288 in jabs (30 percent) and 62 of 199 in power shots (31 percent) and Taylor was 65 of 184 in jabs (35 percent) and 46 of 86 in power shots (53 percent). The beating Taylor suffered in the first bout also affected his jab-to-power punch ratio; in the original he was 56-44 in favor of jabs but swelled to 68-32 in the rematch.
Prediction: As stated in the second paragraph Taylor has looked better in his two losses to Pavlik than Lacy has in his last three outings because he showcased more of the tools that made him such a promising talent on his way to the top. He appears closer to his physical prime than Lacy, who has shown only flashes of the skills that carried him to a decent reign as IBF super middleweight king.
That said, Lacy is a physical powerhouse who is the harder shot-for-shot hitter and capable of pushing Taylor around the ring. To win he must impose his size advantage, maintain a higher work rate and make every shot hurt. The figures against Pavlik demonstrate that against a harder puncher Taylor will limit his output and throw more jabs than power shots.
That, however, may be what Taylor will do anyway because he should emphasize his superior boxing ability and speed instead of brawling with the bigger Lacy. He must use angles to set up punching opportunities and focus on scoring points rather than going for the knockout. Because Taylor appears to have more left in the tank he should win a unanimous decision.
