CompuBox: Dawson vs Johnson Rematch Analysis
By CompuBox
Before Chad Dawson fought the rematch with Antonio Tarver, everyone outside of Tarver’s team wanted Glen Johnson to be standing in the other corner. All will get their wish Saturday when they will finally settle their differences. Dawson is a 3 ½-to-1 favorite to repeat his April 2008 win but Johnson is just as strong a favorite to make him work for it. Factors that may sway the result include:
Genetic Twister: Dawson, who boxes as a southpaw, is a natural right-hander while the right-handed Johnson signs autographs with his left. Dawson’s right jab may carry extra pop but if anyone knows how to fight lefties it is the “Road Warrior,” who is fighting his ninth southpaw in his last 12 fights.
Late-Round Strength: Johnson has plenty while Dawson has less of it. The main source of controversy in Dawson-Johnson I was the challenger’s surge in rounds 10-12. After Dawson seemingly established control over the first nine, Johnson closed fast with advantages of 89-55 overall and 74-42 in power connects. Though fights are scored round-by-round, finishing kicks are remembered more strongly.
This is nothing new for either man. In Johnson’s last outing against Daniel Judah, he out-landed his rival 68-44 overall and 52-34 in power connects in the final two rounds while Dawson nearly let several fights slip away. Dawson dominated Tomasz Adamek over the first nine only to be dropped in the 10th. In the 11th and 12th Adamek reached double-digits connects for the only time in the fight and in the 11th his 24-17 edge in total connects was his first since round one. In the last two rounds of the first Tarver fight, the “Magic Man” had 56-36 and 50-27 edges in total and power connects respectively. That trend continued – sort of – in the Tarver rematch. While most observers agreed that Tarver won the final two rounds, the numbers painted a different story. Dawson actually out-landed Tarver 39-33 overall and 29-23 in power shots. Will Johnson’s pressure again exploit that flaw?
The Big Stick: To counteract Johnson’s volume Dawson must command distance with his jab. Despite averaging 41 jabs per round and throwing 146 more, Dawson was outdone 87-75 in jab connects. That, in turn, enabled Johnson to sweep the other two categories – 292-269 in total connects and 205-194 in landed power punches. Dawson must improve upon his 15 percent connect rate while also striking Johnson with enough force to make him think twice about coming in.
Despite his aggressive approach, Johnson is a busy jabber who also defends it well. Besides out-landing Dawson, he did even better against Judah as he out-jabbed him 62-24 while tasting just eight percent of Judah’s 297 jabs.
Prediction: At 27, Dawson is 18 months more savvy while Johnson, who will turn 41 (a Johnson win would make him the oldest man to win a light heavyweight championship) day after New Year’s, is still good enough to trouble all but the very best. Luckily for “Bad Chad,” his skill set and superior combination punching will pave the way to a more convincing decision win.
OLDEST TO WIN A LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
If Glen Johnson beats Chad Dawson on November 7, he will become the oldest man to win a version of the light heavyweight title. He will be 40 years 319 days on that date.
DATE CHAMP RESULT AGE
11/25/1903 Bob Fitzsimmons W 20 George Gardner 40 yrs., 193 days
4/12/2008 Antonio Tarver W 12 Clinton Woods 39 yrs., 153 days
7/23/1994 Mike McCallum W 12 Jeff Harding 37 yrs., 237 days
12/16//1966 Dick Tiger W 15 Jose Torres 37 yrs., 133 days
10/10/2003 Silvio Branco KO 11 Mehdi Sahnoune 37 yrs., 53 days