By CompuBox

On April 22, 2001 Hasim Rahman was regarded as a prohibitive underdog against WBC/IBF heavyweight champion Lennox Lewis, then regarded by virtually every boxing scribe as the best big man in the world. This was the 10th defense of his second WBC title reign and his fifth bout since beating Evander Holyfield in their rematch. For the majority of observers, the most intriguing aspect of the Lewis-Rahman fight was the location – South Africa – but the fight itself was treated as an athletic afterthought.

In hindsight, the under-prepared Lewis saw the Rahman fight the same way and he ended up paying the ultimate price in the form of a one-punch fifth round KO that was later deemed Ring Magazine’s Upset of the Year.

Now, more than seven years later, the 36-year-old Rahman (45-6-2, 36 KO) will surely experience a case of déjà vu, at least situationally. On December 13 in Mannheim, Germany, “The Rock” will face 32-year-old IBF/WBO champion Wladimir Klitschko (51-3, 45 KO), considered by most as the premier heavyweight in the world. Rahman is a late sub for injured mandatory challenger Alexander Povetkin and has been installed as a better than  9-1-to-1 underdog.

Rahman has all the elements to be an effective and complete fighter, but in recent years he has had trouble putting all the elements together. For example, when he fought light-hitting late sub Zuri Lawrence November 15, 2007 in Reading, Pa., he was the heavyweight division’s answer to Joe Calzaghe and Kelly Pavlik in terms of output. The typical heavyweight averages 46.1 punches per round but against Lawrence Rahman threw an extraordinary 81.8 per round. He topped 30 connects in eight of the 10 rounds – including the final seven – and exceeded 40 connects in three rounds (his high water mark was 42 in the fourth). His grinding attack also produced terrific numbers in terms of power punch accuracy; he topped 40 percent in every round and exceeded 60 percent in two of the final three rounds.

To his credit, Lawrence fought above expectations for a last-minute replacement and hung in there until the final moments of the fight. He landed 30 or more punches in four rounds, all of them consecutively (rounds 5 through 8) and topped 40 percent accuracy in power connects seven times. At times he appeared to have Rahman in trouble, especially in the ninth. The former champ, however, overcame his ninth-round weariness and cuts over both eyes with a spirited attack that led to the final round TKO.

Rahman was 340 of 818 overall (42 percent) to Lawrence’s 25 of 577 (45 percent). Rahman’s power game was on track as he was 301 of 620 (49 percent) to Lawrence’s 197 of 440 (45 percent). But Rahman’s vaunted jab somehow didn’t make the trip to Reading as he was a mere 39 of 198 (20 percent) to Lawrence’s 61 of 137 (45 percent).

Against Taurus Sykes on June 14, 2007 in Rochester, he retained the volume attack (62.8 punches per round) and it was amplified with a superior power punch attack. In rounds three through five alone Rahman out-landed Sykes 81-42 on his way to a 176-89 bulge over the first eight rounds. In that stretch Rahman averaged more than 55 power punches per round (more than twice the divisional norm of 27) while building a 197-128 lead in total connects.

What was missing in this effort? First of all, he lacked strength in the late rounds. In the final two stanzas, Sykes out-landed Rahman 41-26 overall, 11-2 in jabs and 30-20 in power shots. Rahman’s output plunged from 67.75 over the first eight rounds to 43 per round (and just 31 in the 10th). Conversely, Sykes enjoyed his best round in terms of connects in the ninth (17) and dominated the 10th in every category (22-8 in total connects, 9-2 in jabs and 13-6 in power shots).

The other element missing from Rahman’s game was the jab, just like in the Lawrence fight. He was just 23 of 115 (20 pecent) while Sykes was 50 of 171 (29 percent).

In all, Rahman was 223 of 628 (36 percent) to Sykes’ 169 of 511 (33 percent) and held a significant edge in power shots (200 of 513, 39 percent to 119 of 340, 35 percent).

In Rahman’s last heavyweight title fight, his rematch with Oleg Maskaev in August 2006, elements that were dormant against Sykes and Lawrence were in full force while the dominant elements went to sleep.

Against Maskaev, Rahman’s output was only average (44.8 punches per round) but his overall effectiveness – especially with the jab – was superb. The then-WBC champion out-landed his Russian challenger in every round, amassed double-digit jab connects in every round but one and topped the 50 percent mark in jab connects in all but two rounds. In five of nine rounds – including the first four – Rahman landed more jabs than Maskaev landed punches overall.

In the first nine rounds Rahman was 215 of 442 (48.6 percent, 49.1 punches per round) to Maskaev’s 117 of 491 (23.8 percent, 54.6 punches per round). He out-jabbed Maskaev 116-37 (throwing 26.4 jabs per round) and created a 99-80 bulge in power connects, landing at a 48.5 percent rate to Maskaev’s 31.4 percent.

But while Rahman’s offense was clicking on all cylinders, his stamina betrayed him in the final three rounds. That led to a miraculous turn of events that vaulted Maskaev to a TKO with just 43 seconds left in the final round. In rounds 10-12 Rahman’s output fell from 49.1 per round to 31.6 while Maskaev held steady (54.6 to 54.3), leading to a 67-35 gulf in overall connects. Rahman’s jab, so commanding over the first nine, virtually disappeared as he was 12 of 28 (nine per round) to 17 of 56 for Maskaev. Finally “The Big O” cemented his win with a 50-23 outburst in power connects.

The final numbers reflected Rahman’s earlier dominance more than Maskaev’s ultimate superiority. Rahman was 250 of 537 overall (47 percent) to Maskaev’s 184 of 654 (28 percent), 128 of 266 in jabs (48 percent to 54 of 292 (18 percent) and 122 of 271 (45 percent) in power shots to 130 of 362 (36 percent).

If Rahman is to pull the upset against Klitschko, he must have all elements of his game at his command, much like he had when he fought David Tua for the first time. Though he ultimately lost the fight by controversial 10th round TKO, Rahman was utterly dominant as he averaged 84 punches and 33.3 connects per round, landed 16 of his 39.6 jabs and connected on 40 percent of his power punches. He must work his way inside Klitschko’s long arms, grind away at his body while there and possess the stamina to keep it up for as long as it takes. That is an awful tall order for a 36-year-old coming off an unimpressive cut-induced no-decision against James Toney but the statistics in recent fights suggests that a supreme effort is still possible.

The right-handed Rahman would be a welcome change for Klitschko, whose last two fights have been against difficult southpaws Sultan Ibragimov and Tony Thompson. The Ibragimov bout provided a definitive statistical blueprint of Klitschko’s approach under Hall of Fame trainer Emanuel Steward – a cautious jab-heavy offense highlighted by devastatingly accurate – if seldom thrown – power punches. Klitschko’s 6-6 ½ height, 81-inch reach and genuine one-punch power force often smaller opponents to throttle down their offenses in the name of self-preservation and that’s what happened to Ibragimov. The result was a mind numbing bore-fest on a night that should have been a hallmark for boxing – a heavyweight title unification fight on boxing’s most hallowed stage in Madison Square Garden.

Klitschko didn’t land his first power punch until the fourth round but because his jab was so successful he had little reason to deviate. Despite being just 3 of 14 in power shots over the first six rounds, his 60-9 bulge in landed jabs allowed Klitschko to establish supreme control of the contest. Only when Klitschko felt he was in command did he begin to diversify his attack and once he did Ibragimov could do nothing to stop it. In the last six rounds Klitschko continued to commit to the jab, upping his rate from 20.2 per round to 20.6 en route to a 48 of 124 (38.7 percent) to 7 of 56 (12.5 percent) bulge. Because Klitschko nearly duplicated Ibragimov’s success in power punches (37 of 89, 41.6 percent to 44 of 92, 47.8 percent) the Russian was unable to mount a mathematical rally.

Klitschko averaged just 29 punches per round en route to a 148-97 edge in total connects and a 108-16 gulf in landed jabs. Ibragimov threw only 26.3 punches per round (far below the heavyweight average of 46.1) as he more than doubled Klitschko’s power connects (81 of 179, 45 percent to 40 of 103, 39 percent). Because Ibragimov couldn’t offset Klitschko’s dominance in jabs, he lost a 119-110, 118-110 and 117-111 decision.

Klitschko’s most recent outing against Thompson July 12 in Hamburg told a far different story in that he had to surmount early adversity before scoring a thunderous one-punch knockout in the 11th. A 6-5 southpaw with an 81 ½-inch wingspan, Thompson matched up well with Klitschko physically and he used a fast start in the first round to unsettle the champion. He out-landed Klitschko 21-5 overall and 15-5 in power shots to set the table for a statistically dominant first six rounds. Thompson averaged 46.5 punches per round in building a 100-61 total connects edge and 61-44 in power connects. Most importantly, however, Thompson successfully kept Klitschko’s jab in check as he limited him to 13.8 attempts per round and averaging 22.3 himself en route to a 39-17 advantage.

The final five rounds saw Klitschko turn the tables, mostly because each of his landed blows carried more power and that, in turn wore Thompson out. In rounds seven through 11 Klitschko was 60 of 190 (31.6 percent) to Thompson’s 50 of 129 (38.8 percent) while nearly doubling his jab tempo from 13.8 to 26.6 per round en route to a 19-18 connect edge. Klitschko also reversed his power punch deficit by landing 41 of 107 (38.3 percent) to Thompson’s 32 of 76 (42.1 percent). In the four full rounds before the knockout Klitschko averaged 41.25 punches per round (including 19.25 jabs) while Thompson’s work rate plunged from 46.5 to 29 per round (12.75 jabs).

The final numbers reflected the degree of Thompson’s early success more than the final result as Klitschko was 121 of 411 (29 percent) to Thompson’s 150 of 408 (37 percent). Thompson also amassed edges in jabs (57 of 187, 30 percent to 36 of 166, 22 percent) and power shots (93 of 221, 42 percent to 85 of 245, 35 percent).

The home ring advantage as well as his edges in height, reach and overall experience when one combines amateur and pro experience will work to Klitschko’s advantage. Klitschko knows what he does well and when he is in control he is very difficult to knock off track. If Klitschko is Klitschko, Rahman can’t be Rahman.

Prediction: This would have been an intriguing fight had it taken place in 2001, when Rahman was fresh off his KO of Lewis and Klitschko was early in his first reign as WBO champ. Time and circumstances, however, didn’t allow the bout to come off until now. Though Rahman has won four of his last five fights (with the no-contest against Toney being the only blemish), he has struggled with his form. Meanwhile, the 32-year-old Klitschko has that enviable blend of chronological youth combined with the experience that comes with 54 pro fights and 14 for “major” titles. That experience will tell him to approach Rahman like he does virtually everyone else – cautiously. He knows Rahman’s power poses a threat to his average chin so expect Klitschko to methodically work his low-risk offense from long range en route to a comfortable unanimous decision.