By CompuBox (photo by Chris Farina/Top Rank)

While sports fans would’ve rather had Floyd Mayweather facing Manny Pacquiao at Cowboys Stadium Saturday, boxing aficionados ended up with the next best thing in the form of rock-hard Ghanaian Joshua Clottey. Meanwhile, “Money” is scheduled to tangle with WBA welterweight champion Shane Mosley May 1, and should Pacquiao win a fight with the Mayweather-Mosley winner promises to be a financial and fistic bonanza.

Before that can happen, Pacquiao, a better than 5-1 favorite (it opened at 4-1) must get by Clottey, a recent IBF titleholder who seeks to bounce back from a split decision loss to Miguel Cotto last June. Who will emerge victorious in this international scrap? The CompuBox numbers offer factors that could be at play:

The Cotto Equation: Interestingly, the Puerto Rican star was the most recent opponent for both men as Clottey dropped a controversial nod while Pacquiao scored a 12th round TKO. As most boxing people know, just because Pacquiao beat Cotto and Cotto beat Clottey, that doesn’t necessarily mean that Pacquiao is a lock to beat Clottey. The numbers, however, suggest just that.

Pacquiao’s numbers against Cotto were overwhelming – 336-172 in total connects that included a 276-93 gap in landed power punches. Following a nip and tuck four rounds Pacquiao shifted into high gear and from round six onward his fistic typhoon swept Cotto out like a beachfront home. In the last five completed rounds (six through 11), Pacquiao out-landed Cotto 192-78 overall and a face busting 160-28 in power connects. During that same span Pacquiao’s 53 power shots per round and 26.6 connects eroded Cotto’s willingness to fire back in kind as his output dipped to 18 and 5.3 per round. Cotto failed to reach double-digit power connects from round four on while Pacquiao’s lowest marks was 12 in the 10th and 11 in the truncated 12th. For the record, Pacquiao’s peak was 35 power connects in the ninth.

Clottey was far more than a stepping stone when he faced Cotto before a highly charged Puerto Rican Day crowd at Madison Square Garden. Despite throwing 101 fewer punches (622-723), he out-landed Cotto by a commanding 222-179. That pattern held true in the jabs as Clottey threw 110 fewer (209-319) but was out-landed by only one (54-55). But Clottey made his hay in the power-punching department as he unleashed nine more (413-404) and landed 44 more (168-124).

After opening a horrific gash over Cotto’s eye early in the fight, Clottey assumed command by sweeping rounds seven through 10. In that sequence Clottey accumulated leads of 82-45 in total connects and 66-30 lead in power connects despite out-throwing Cotto by just six punches (223-217). Simply put, Clottey’s accuracy, not his output, was propelling him toward a career-defining victory.

A great fighter, however, is created not only by who he beats but also how he beats them. A vital ingredient is the ability to finish off a vulnerable foe and here Clottey fell short because he allowed Cotto –a proven great – to rise up in the “championship rounds.” Cotto overcame the deficits of the previous four rounds to draw relatively even as he out-threw the Ghanaian 101-93 while closing to 38-36 in overall connects and 35-22 in landed power shots. Just as he had in previous crises, Cotto relied on his jab in the final two sessions and used his 14-3 advantage to pull out the victory.

This contrast in ring temperament during crucial situations may be the difference between victory and defeat. When Pacquiao had Cotto dead to rights he finished the job while the same could not be said of Clottey, who has never thrown more than 62 punches in any round in nine of his fights tracked by CompuBox.  At age 32, can the “Grand Master” change his demeanor and checkmate his greatest opponent to date?

Styles – and Circumstances – Make Fights: Pacquiao late-career transformation was best shown in his fights against Oscar de la Hoya and Ricky Hatton. Like the Cotto bout, Pacquiao executed a mathematical tour de force. “The Pac Man” was golden against “The Golden Boy” as he unleashed 73.1 punches per round (far above the welterweight average of 58) and out-scored him 224-83 (total connects) and 195-51 (power connects). Against Hatton, Pacquiao was prolific and precise as he out-landed him 73-18 (total) and 65-16 (power) while posting absurdly high connect percentages of 57.5 and 61.9 respectively. All that, and Pacquiao ended matters with a devastating left cross that left Hatton unconscious.

Pacquiao’s critics will say the 35-year-old De La Hoya’s emaciated state turned a battle of big versus small into one of young versus old. They will also say Hatton was overrated and confused by the teachings of defensive specialist Floyd Mayweather Sr. In Clottey, Pacquiao will face someone who has never been knocked out and has only lost to the best.

How does Clottey do against slick southpaws? The Zab Judah fight offers clues. Once again, he prevailed with a less-is-more formula as he posted edges of 122-117 overall despite throwing 26 fewer (393-419). Judah, respectful of Clottey’s strength, used a jab-heavy offense (66 percent of his blows) to set up efficient power punching (72 of 139, 52 percent). Pacquiao, never known for his jab (19.6 percent in his last three fights) will likely adopt the opposite approach.

Pacquiao will need to apply science to his pressure, for Clottey’s bout with Jose Luis Cruz shows that a unvarnished punch-out isn’t wise.  Clottey enjoyed advantages of 111-64 overall and 102-57 in power shots while landing at a 47 percent and 55 percent rate respectively. Clottey’s shell defense limited Cruz to 26 percent overall, 11 percent in jabs and 31 percent in power shots.

Prediction: The heavily-muscled Clottey may be the most demanding opponent in terms of sheer strength Pacquiao has faced.  Clottey can play some “D” too, as the nine opponents tracked by CompuBox landed just 30% of their power shots  (9% less than the welterweight avg).  That being said, Pacquiao has the tools necessary to riddle the Ghanian’s armor with holes. Clottey stood up to Margarito’s CompuBox record 1,675-punch attack but was floored by Cotto.  In the Margarito fight, Clottey blocked or avoided 1,338 punches, the most in a fight in CompuBox history.  As was the case with Cotto, Pacquiao wants a spectacular preamble for his next fight, whether it’s against Mayweather or Mosley. He’ll get it, but not by knockout. Pacquiao by decision.

NOTE:   as of Thursday, Feb 25, Cowboy Stadium officials reported that 30,000 tickets had been sold.  ESPN.com reported that same day that Top Rank projected ticket sales at  45,000.  On June 13, 1998 Oscar delaHoya KO’d Patrick Charpentier in the third round of a fight that drew 45,368 to the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Tx.  That is believed to be the largest crowd to attend an outdoor fight in Texas.  Other notable attendances:

Indoor
63,350-  9/15/78  Superdome, New Orleans, LA- Muhammad Ali W 15 Leon Spinks
59,995-  4/12/97 Alamodome, San Antonio TX- Whitaker D 12 Chavez

Outdoor
300,000- 7/6/96  Lunetta Park, Intramuros, Philippines- Luisito Espinoza W 12 Cesar Soto
132,247- 2/20/93  Estadio Azteca, Mexico City- JC Chavez KO 5 Greg Haugen
120,757- 9/23/26  Sesquicentennial Stadium, Phil., PA- Gene Tunney W 10 Jack Dempsey