By CompuBox

HBO's Boxing After Dark will present an intriguing double-header Saturday night as Juan Manuel Lopez rises in weight to fight WBO featherweight champ Steve Luevano and WBA featherweight champion Yuriorkis Gamboa takes on rugged Rogers Mtagwa.

Should Lopez and Gamoba emerge victorious – and the oddsmakers believe that will happen – it is expected that they will meet later this year. But Luevano, who has held his title since July 2007, and Mtagwa, who pushed Lopez to the limit in one of 2009’s best fights, are capable of spoiling Top Rank’s best-laid plans.

The main event offers a stark stylistic contrast with the explosive Lopez, who boasted a 14-fight KO streak before going the distance with Mtagwa, and the lanky but light-hitting Luevano (15 knockouts in 37 wins). Three factors that may prove vital to the outcome include:

Activity: Luevano has had only one fight since decisioning Billy Dib in October 2008 – a seven-round DQ win over Bernabe Concepcion – while Lopez fought five times over the same span. Moreover, of the 33 rounds Lopez fought, 31 of them were in his last three fights. This is a two-edged sword for both men. Luevano can take heart in the example set by Bernard Hopkins, who surmounted long layoffs to upset Antonio Tarver and Kelly Pavlik. On the other hand Luevano is not in Hopkins’ league when it comes to ring pedigree. As for Lopez, James Toney showed in the 1990s that a champion can fight often and still retain his sharp edge. However, that edge dulled with time and he eventually paid the price against Roy Jones. Which timetable – and which aspect of those timetables – will emerge when Luevano and Lopez fight? Only the opening bell can answer that question.

Ring Age: At 28, Luevano is Lopez’s senior by 21 months, but he is older still in terms of ring wear. Seven of his last eight went 11 rounds or longer and he suffered knockdowns against Mario Santiago and Terdsak Jandaeng along the way. Additionally, while the record shows he beat Concepcion his body suffered the equivalent of a knockout loss after being struck several times after the bell. Then again, the same could be said of Lopez after fighting the 12th virtually unconscious and tasting 36 power shots against the hard-charging Mtagwa. Will the move up in weight fortify Lopez’s ability to absorb punishment? It helps that Luevano is not a powerful hitter, plus he has fought just 110 rounds in 27 fights (4.07 rounds per fight) to Luevano’s 250 rounds in 39 fights (6.41 rounds per fight).

Recent Statistical Form: Against Santiago and Concepcion, Luevano averaged 54 and 53.4 punches per round – near the 57 thrown by typical featherweights – but against Dib his output dropped to 32.2, probably because of the Aussie’s negative fight plan. Despite his angular build that suggests a jab-heavy offense, Luevano threw more power shots than jabs against Dib and Santiago (a 58-42 ratio against each) and was accurate (43.5 and 36.2 percent respectively). Against Concepcion the reverse was true (71-29 ratio). On the one hand that is good because this shows versatility, which he will need against the multi-dimensional Lopez. But one of those dimensions had better include the jab, which against Concepcion was a non-entity as he landed just 8 percent of them (22 of 268).  Luevano has dazzled in the past with his jab, landing a CompuBox featherweight record 240 jabs in his decision win over Terdsak Jandaeng on 3/15/08.

Lopez will push the pace, for he averaged 113.3 punches per round against Penalosa, 65.8 against Olivier Lontchi and 69.7 against Mtagwa, far higher than the junior featherweight average of 60.6. He is also the superior marksman, for he averaged 41.5 percent in overall connects and 44.5 percent in power connects in his three fights against Penalosa, Lontchi and Mtagwa. Like Luevano, the jab needs to be part of Lopez’s arsenal despite the fact Luevano is a southpaw. Against the southpaw Penalosa, an open target otherwise (Lopez out-landed Penalosa 444-99 overall), Lopez landed just 15 percent of his jabs as opposed to 34 percent (Dib) and 30 percent (Santiago). Luevano, a southpaw, defends the jab fairly well as the opponents in the last three fights tracked by CompuBox landed 24.4 percent of them.

Prediction: Younger, fresher and more comfortable at the weight, JuanMa will return to form via sixth round TKO.

GAMBOA vs. MTAGWA

Gamboa-Mtagwa will pit flash against grit and the outcome will be determined by one thing – the fear factor.

The real threat posed by Gamboa’s talents inhibits his opponents’ willingness to take risks. In other words, why throw more punches when he knows harder and more accurate punches will be coming back at him? That self-preservation mindset played out in Gamboa’s fights against Roger Gonzalez, Tomas Rojas and Whyber Garcia, for Gonzalez threw 467 fewer punches (245-712), Rojas 144 less (320-464) and Garcia 130 fewer (71-201) in just four rounds. That’s because Gamboa piled up 133-31, 99-50 and 64-10 advantages in power connects.

But in Mtagwa, the “Tanzanian Tiger,” Gamoba will face a different cat and a different attitude. If Mtagwa is anything, he is fearless – and dangerous to the very end.

Against Tomas Villa, Mtagawa overcame a ninth round knockdown to record three of his own in the 10th, amassing a 24-1 power connect advantage in doing so. His final round heroics continued against Lopez as he went 36 of 79 to JuanMa’s 9 of 94. For all of his bravery, Mtagwa does limit his output against superior talents, for he averaged 50.5 punches per round against Lopez while the numbers jumped to 72.5 and 69.1 against lesser lights Villa and Aldo Valtierra (second fight). Therefore, Mtagwa is in a Catch-22: If he throws often he’ll catch often too, but if he doesn’t apply pressure he’ll fall behind on the scorecards.

Mtagwa’s one hope is Gamboa’s vulnerable chin, which has been dented early and often. However, Gamboa was more measured against Rojas and Garcia as he averaged 46.4 and 50.2 blows per round respectively as opposed to 71.2 against Gonzalez. For Gamboa, patience will be a virtue.

Prediction: Gamboa slowly breaks down Mtagwa and wins a comfortable decision.