By CompuBox
Along with welterweight and super middleweight, the 140-pound class boasts a deeply talented and compelling pool of champions and contenders. Four of them will put their records and reputations on the line as WBA champ Amir Khan risks his belt against the rejuvenated Paul Malignaggi and Victor Ortiz crosses swords with former three-belt lightweight champion Nate Campbell.
The mix of styles and story lines promises an intriguing night at the fights and a look at the CompuBox statistics offers a glimpse of what was and perhaps what may be on Saturday.
Factors that will be in play for Khan-Malignaggi include:
New trainers: Both men are in the midst of stirring career revivals following crushing defeats. Under Freddie Roach, the 23-year-old Khan has gone 4-0 (3 KO) since Breidis Prescott starched him in 54 seconds while “The Magic Man” has put forth three excellent performances since Long Island’s Sharif Younan took over for Buddy McGirt after Malignaggi’s TKO loss to Ricky Hatton. Both Roach and Younan have emphasized speed and long-range boxing, though in Khan’s case the power has also been in evidence.
In taking out Dmitriy Salita in 76 seconds, Khan achieved a rare boxing feat – a shutout. He out-landed Salita 15-0 overall and all of his connects were power punches. Floored in the bout’s opening seconds and overwhelmed by Khan’s follow-up assault, Salita could only get off 10 punches. As for Malignaggi, a return to side-to-side movement, darting jabs and slippery defense has vaulted him back to prominence.
Spraying Bullets: Besides maintaining long range, both have increased their punch outputs as of late. The typical junior welterweight throws 60.7 punches per round but Khan and Malignaggi have shown they perform best when their high outputs force their rivals to focus heavily on defense.
In averaging 79 punches per round against a faded Marco Antonio Barrera, Khan kept Barrera’s offense down to 38.2 while in winning the WBA belt from Andreas Kotelnik, Khan’s 77.8 output limited Kotelnik to 49. As a result, Khan out-landed Barrera 104-32 overall and 72-25 in power connects while also performing Kotelnik 208-140 (overall) and 96-28 in landed jabs. While Khan and Kotelnik each landed 112 power shots, Khan’s superior jabbing allowed him to reach that total in 80 fewer attempts (343-423).
Meanwhile, the revitalized Malignaggi twice managed to out-throw Juan Diaz, who crafted a rare three-belt title reign off volume punching. In losing a hotly disputed decision the first time, Malignaggi averaged 79.1 punches per round to Diaz’s 55.2, out-landing him 191-178 overall and 111-55 in jabs. Besides the home field advantage, Diaz may have been helped by his 123-80 bulge in power connects.
A similar pattern unfoled in the rematch as Malignaggi threw 66.8 punches per round to Diaz’s 43 and out-landed him 169-146 overall and 102-70 in jabs. Diaz’s lead in power connects narrowed to 76-67, which may partially account for the wider margin of victory.
Against Chris Fernandez, Malignaggi dominated every moment save for the final moments of the sixth when a huge hook rocked the Brooklyn native to his core. Otherwise he piled up advantages of 134-35 (overall), 49-14 (connected jabs) and 85-21 (power connects) en route to an easy eight-round decision. His 57.5 punch output was lower than usual, but the gulf in class between he and Fernandez (who threw just 33.5 per round) allowed Malignaggi to get away with throttling down slightly. Against Khan, however, Malignaggi will need to fire on all cylinders.
Prediction: Because of Khan’s superior height, Malignaggi must find a way to dart in and out without tasting any heavy return fire – a difficult proposition indeed. Plus, Khan boasts comparable – if not better – hand speed and far better power. Malignaggi’s defensive prowess and courage will see him through to the final bell, but it won’t net him a victory. Khan by decision.
VICTOR ORTIZ vs. NATE CAMPBELL
For Ortiz, less is more: Despite his high-octane reputation, Ortiz doesn’t throw many punches. He averaged just 36 punches per round in stopping Antonio Diaz and a paltry 29.5 in his KO loss to Marcos Maidana. The key to Ortiz’s success has been his power punching accuracy. Against Ortiz he connected on 49.2 percent of his 63 power shots and limited Diaz to 21.3 percent success (32 of 150) while in his losing effort to Maidana he landed at a 44.9 percent rate (70 of 156) to Maidana’s 25.2 percent (63 of 250). Maidana prevailed only because each landed shot boasted titanic impact.
Against the out-classed Hector Alatorre – who was little more than a mobile punching bag – the threat of Ortiz’s power was enough. Alatorre threw just 18.8 punches per round and landed at 15 percent (overall), 11 percent (jabs) and 17 percent (power). Ortiz, who deliberately slowed his attack in order to get more rounds in, piled up advantages of 148-29 (total connects) and 131-24 (power connects) while averaging 52.7 punches per round. Once he revved up his attack in the 10th it took Ortiz less than a minute to end the fight.
For Campbell, volume and verbiage might do the trick: Win or lose Campbell is a far busier fighter than Ortiz. He averaged 53 punches against Ali Funeka, 55.7 in losing to Timothy Bradley and an eye-popping 95.4 in dethroning Juan Diaz.
Campbell is also one of boxing’s best body punchers. Of his 40 power connects against Bradley, 27 were to the body – a 67.5 percent rate – and his rugged inside work also worked wonders against the rail-thin Funeka and the short, squat Diaz. While Campbell will be tempted to blast right hands off Ortiz’s vulnerable chin, he must not forget to do his homework downstairs.
Finally, many have questioned Ortiz’s toughness and zest for combat after the Maidana loss and psychological warfare is one way to exploit that potential weakness. Campbell is a prodigious trash talker and what better way to amplify his punching successes than to tell Ortiz all about them in the clinches?
Prediction: For the 38-year-old Campbell this is the Last Chance Saloon while for 23-year-old Ortiz it is the Road to Redemption. Youth, speed and talent usually trump age, experience and vinegar and such will be the case here. The key to the fight’s length is how well Campbell absorbs Ortiz’s punch early. The guess is that he will survive it and go on to lose a decision.
