By CompuBox
With Nate Campbell losing two of his lightweight titles on the scales, Saturday night’s bout between Juan Manuel Marquez and Juan Diaz at the Toyota Center in Houston was elevated to one for the WBO strap. Marquez is a little less than a 2-to-1 favorite to emerge victorious but many observers believe Diaz is a very live underdog, especially fighting in his hometown.
From a statistical standpoint, Marquez-Diaz offers several intriguing factors:
Age: Although the 35-year-old Marquez is a 15-year veteran with 54 fights, it can be argued he is fighting as well as ever. In his last two fights he pushed Manny Pacquiao to the limit before losing a disputed split decision and he became the first to stop the tricky Joel Casamayor. Conversely, at 25 Diaz is already a veteran of 11 championship fights against the likes of Lavka Sim, Julien Lorcy, Acelino Freitas, Julio Diaz and Nate Campbell, so he has an enviable blend of youth and experience.
Output: This will be the key of the fight, for whoever asserts his pace on the other will win. In his bouts with Marco Antonio Barrera, Pacquiao and Casamayor, Marquez averaged just 33.5 punches per round – far below the 63.9 lightweight average – but he landed 42.9 percent of his power shots. As for Diaz, he averaged 83.2 per round against Julio Diaz and Campbell but throttled down his offense to 66.5 against the Aussie wild man Michael Katsidis, showing off underrated boxing skills (landed 9 of 29 jabs thrown per round) in the process. Here he topped off at 76 punches thrown but his overall accuracy was 40 percent four times and his power punch marksmanship exceeded 40 percent eight times. Will we see more of that against Marquez? We’ll see.
Defense: Though Marquez is not quite the defensive master he used to be, he still protects himself well. Barrera, Casamayor and Pacquiao landed a combined 22.8 percent of their jabs and 39.5 percent of their power shots, both below the divisional averages of 30.4 and 35.7 respectively. Though a wade-in puncher, Diaz is pretty good defensively as he allowed a combined 21.9 percent of jabs and 35.7 percent of power shots to slip through against Diaz and Campbell. Against Katsidis, those numbers plummeted to 12 percent of jabs and 20 percent of power punches, so Diaz enjoyed a plus-20 in jab percentage and a plus-21 in power shot percentage.
Prediction: This fight is filled with contrasts and will yield an entertaining battle for fans because each man has shown he can effectively adapt to his surroundings. Look for Diaz to push the pace and vault to a fast start with accurate in-and-out volleys as Marquez surveys from a distance. Marquez will get his engine going around the third, after which he will pick at Diaz’s defenses. The outcome will depend on whether Diaz can adjust to Marquez’s adjustments.
COMPUBOX ANALYSIS – JM MARQUEZ vs. JUAN DIAZ
If he can, his youth will carry him to victory. If he can’t, Marquez’s savvy will carry the day. The guess here: Diaz by decision before his hometown fans.