By CompuBox

Recent events in the careers of Joel Casamayor and Juan Manuel Marquez prove that not every victory has the power to elevate and not every defeat diminishes a boxer’s standing.

Two fights ago Casamayor retained his Ring Magazine lightweight championship with a hotly disputed split decision over Jose Armando Santa Cruz, a man who appeared to trump Casamayor in every conceivable way save for name recognition. Despite being declared the winner, Casamayor was labeled as washed-up and ripe for the taking by most observers and was all but left for dead when he signed to meet the Gatti-esque Australian sensation Michael Katsidis. Anxious to prove a point, Casamayor dropped Katsidis twice in the first round and survived a mid-fight surge to emerge with a 10th round TKO victory that restored some of the luster he lost against Santa Cruz.

Meanwhile Marquez lost a controversial split decision to Manny Pacquiao in his last outing March 8 in a bout that saw the Mexican establish numerical, if not strategic, superiority. The message boards were ablaze with debates about who really won the fight and the closeness of the bout convinced most boxing writers to keep Marquez comfortably within their top 10 pound for pound lists.

With an eye toward securing a third bout with Pacquiao, who has since dethroned WBC lightweight champion David Diaz, Marquez has moved up to 135 to challenge for Casamayor’s linear crown. Marquez (48-4-1, 35 KO) is a sold 3-to-1 favorite to defeat Casamayor (36-3-1, 22 KO) when they meet Sept. 13 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.  They’ve won a combined 84 of 93 fights, good for a winning pct. of 90%.

One of the reasons Casamayor is the underdog is that the images of his fight against Santa Cruz on November 10, 2007 in New York remain fresh. The long, lean Santa Cruz cranked up the offense and kept his foot on the throttle throughout while Casamayor was forced to focus on defense. As a result the numbers were lopsided in Santa Cruz’s favor. Consider:

* Santa Cruz out-threw Casamayor by nearly 300 punches (801-502) – an average of nearly 25 punches per round (67 to 42).

* Santa Cruz threw nearly twice as many power shots (533-269) and landed at nearly triple the rate (192-79).

* In terms of overall punches, Santa Cruz out-landed Casamayor in each of the final 11 rounds, with only the opening round being a 10-10 draw.

* In eight of the 12 rounds Santa Cruz out-connected the Cuban by 10 or more.

* In rounds three through six, Santa Cruz amassed an 89-37 bulge in overall connects as well as a 99-50 advantage in rounds eight through 11.

* In terms of power shots, Santa Cruz out-landed the champion by 10 or more in eight rounds, all within a nine-round stretch. From rounds three to five the gulf was 89-37 and from rounds eight to 11 it was 74-27.

When the decision in Casamayor’s favor was announced, the waves of disbelief were palpable. There were calls for Ring Magazine to strip the Cuban of his title and elevate Santa Cruz, but the publication held firm to its policy that nothing save for retirement, official defeat or weight-induced abdication would be sufficiently persuasive.


Thus, Casamayor had much to prove when the younger, stronger Katsidis challenged him this past March 22 in Cabazon, Calif. With a more accommodating style before him, Casamayor turned back the clock and in the end clocked Katsidis.

Unlike the Santa Cruz fight, Casamayor started quickly as he floored Katsidis twice in the first and amassed a dazzling 25-2 connect edge en route to a 75-24 bulge overall and 48-18 power shot advantage in the first three rounds. Katsidis roared back in rounds four to seven as he out-landed Casamayor 82-52 overall and 72-31 in power shots, including a canyon-esque 28-7 in the sixth. Rounds seven through nine were see saw in nature as Casamayor held a 39-38 edge overall but Katsidis a 32-26 power advantage. An enormous left-right to the jaw early in the 10th sealed the Aussie’s doom and the fight was stopped at the 30 second mark.

Casamayor averaged 52 punches per round against Katsidis, nearly 10 better than against Santa Cruz, while Katsidis averaged 47, 20 fewer than Santa Cruz did. Casamayor led 166-144 in overall connects, 61-22 in jabs but trailed 122-105 in power connects, though Casamayor landed at a 38 percent rate to Katsidis’ 31.

Like Casamayor, Marquez performs better against aggressors, but his last two fights against Rocky Juarez on November 3, 2007 and Pacquiao March 8, 2008 featured two different types of aggressors and thus produced two contrasting results – at least officially.

Juarez is an orthodox straight-ahead slugger who banks on a quick destructive hook, and with the help of a massive cut over the left eye caused by a first round butt Marquez piled up the numbers. In the first three rounds Marquez bolted to a 64-35 lead in overall connects that included a 29-7 advantage in power connects. He threw 116 more punches (727-610) and landed 99 more (252-153) overall. His control of distance was reflected in the jab numbers that saw Marquez throw more (411-323) and land more (105-69) as well as the power numbers that saw similar advantages (147 of 316, 47 percent for Marquez and 84 of 287, 29 percent for Juarez). Marquez out-landed Juarez in all but the ninth round and he held 10-1-1 and 9-2-1 edges in power shots and jabs respectively.

Against Pacquiao, a whirling dervish southpaw with supernatural quickness, the stylistic story was much different. A third round knockdown and a sterling stretch drive in rounds nine through 11 proved decisive as Pacquiao won a split decision but the CompuBox numbers make a case for those who thought Marquez won. Consider:

* Though Marquez threw 108 fewer punches (619-511), he landed 15 more (172-157) overall.

* He also secured a 16-punch edge in power connects (130-114) while throwing just five more (310-305).

* While Pacquiao’s only edge came in connected jabs (43-42), he had to throw 113 more (314-201) to do so.

* In the round-by-round stats, Pacquiao had a 6-5-1 edge in overall connects, but Marquez landed an average of 6.8 more punches per round in the ones he won as opposed to 3.17 more punches per round won by Pacquiao.

In terms of power connects, Marquez held a 6-5-1 edge with the Mexican winning his rounds by an average 4.83 connects per round as opposed to Pacquiao’s 2.6 connects per round.

Though Pacquiao won the decision , there is still a lively debate as to who is the better fighter. The question to be answered Saturday night, however, is can Marquez beat Casamayor?

Prediction: Casamayor, who turned 37 on July 12, and Marquez, who will turn 36, are two of the division’s eldest statesmen and they stack up well physically. Both stand 5-7 and Casamayor’s 69-inch reach is two inches longer than Marquez’s. They also have proved they could box and slug with equal dexterity and they possess the discipline to carry out a blueprint to its conclusion.

Each will try to force the other into doing things outside their comfort zone. Casamayor is well known for his knowledge of boxing’s darker arts and will use them in an attempt to rattle the control-conscious Marquez. The Mexican, in turn, knows that Casamayor prefers to counter at long range, and he has the height, reach and knowledge to force the Cuban to adopt the unfamiliar role of aggressor. Both have the talent to force his opponent into uncomfortable territory, so the winner of this fight will be the one who can do what he hates to do better.

That man will be Marquez, who showed he was good enough to give present pound-for-pound king Pacquiao all he could handle. The same probably can’t be said of Casamayor, and because Marquez is closer to his prime he will capture a unanimous decision.