By CompuBox

Every so often boxing fans are treated to a “can’t miss” fight, a fight featuring fighters whose styles have the potential to produce an electrifying spectacle.

On Sept. 6 at the Toyota Center in Houston, punching machine Juan Diaz, nearly a 3-1 favorite, will meet the rampaging Australian Michael Katsidis in a fight that six months ago could have been a clash between two of the sports hottest undefeated lightweights. But in fights held two weeks apart in March, Diaz lost his WBC/WBA/IBF lightweight belts to Nate Campbell while Katsidis was stopped in 10 rounds by Ring Magazine champion Joel Casamayor. It is a tribute to their fighting spirts – and the bravery of their management teams – that they chose to fight each other anyway. Diaz (33-1, 17 KO) is a 3-to-1 favorite to defeat Katsidis (23-1, 20 KO) and advance toward a match with the winner of either Campbell-Joan Guzman or Casamayor-Juan Manuel Marquez.

Whether in victory or defeat, Diaz always sets a hyperkenetic pace and forces his opponents to stay with him. On Oct. 13, 2007 WBC/WBA champ Diaz met IBF counterpart Julio Diaz to further consolidate the 135-pound belts, and Julio vowed that he would beat Diaz at his own game. He turned out to be half correct, for while he out-threw his two-belt rival in each of the first seven rounds (averaging an incredible 117 punches per round to his opponent’s 99), the younger Diaz out-connected him in every round (43 to 25). The “Baby Bull” topped 40 connects in rounds two and three (42 and 44) and exceeded 50 in rounds five through seven (56, 53 and 51) while the elder Diaz topped 30 connects just once (31 in round two, a round that also saw him throw a fight-high 130).

The two-belt Texan was also the model of efficiency as he landed 339 of his 774 punches overall (44 percent) and a withering 47 percent of his 606 power punches, topping the 40 percent mark in seven rounds and peaking at 61 percent in the sixth. Meanwhile, the IBF champ was 185 of 885 (21 percent) overall and his 23 percent connect rate on power shots (133 of 567) was less than half of his opponent’s. The jab numbers also reflected this superiority as the “Baby Bull” landed 34 percent (57 of 168) while “The Kidd” connected on 16 percent of his (62 of 318). The numbers game proved to be too physically taxing for Julio as he remained on his stool at the start of the ninth.

The dynamic three-belt champ tried to play the same game with the 36-year-old Campbell when they met in Cancun on March 8, 2008 but “The Galaxxy Warrior” not only matched him but also raised the bar. This was reflected in the first round numbers as Campbell was an eye-popping 51 of 114 overall and 42 of 88 in power shots while Diaz was 32 of 82 and 32 of 74 respectively. Campbell out-threw Diaz in every round, exceeding the 100-punch mark four times and out-landing Diaz in nine of the 12 rounds.

Fighting through a severe cut through most of the fight, Diaz valiantly traded with the inspired Campbell throughout but his best efforts couldn’t match the Floridian’s. It was the exact reverse of the Julio Diaz fight in that Campbell not only threw more but also landed more and with more power. In the end Campbell was 414 of 1145 overall (the 10th highest output and the 12th most connects in CompuBox-tracked fights) while Diaz was 288 of 891. Campbell’s power punch totals of 368 of 913 tied for seventh in power attempts and fifth in power connects while Diaz was 251 of 742, a good night for him but not good enough on this night. For the record, Campbell out-jabbed Diaz 46-37 but Diaz’s jab was a bit more efficient (25 percent to 20).

With the notable exception of the Campbell fight, Diaz’s history has been to make opponents fight at a pace comfortable for him but unusual for them.

In 12 fights tracked by CompuBox Diaz has averaged 75 punches per round and 28 connects while his foes, fighting harder just to keep him away, averaged 82 punches thrown but just 18 connects. The power percentages are particularly telling as Diaz landed at a 42 percent rate while his foes connected at just 25 percent. This will certainly be his game plan against the super-aggressive Katsidis.

Like Diaz, Katsidis is an action-packed thrill ride who throws himself into battle with little hesitation. His July 21, 2007 brawl with Filipino Czar Amonsodt was a typically blood-soaked affair that saw both men give everything. Like Juan Diaz did against Julio Diaz, Katsidis threw fewer punches (47 per round against 59 per round) but landed more (21 to 18 per round) at a higher rate (46 to 31 percent overall and 48 to 39 in power shots). Katsidis out-landed Amonsodt in seven of the first 10 rounds (with one even) with the most lopsided session being the 10th in which he amassed a 40-19 connect edge overall. To Amonsodt’s credit, he came on strong in the 11th and 12th by out-landing Katsidis 27-12 but his effort still fell sort as Katsidis captured a hard-earned unanimous decision.

Most boxing experts predicted that Katsidis would beat the aging Casamayor when they met March 22 in Cabazon, Calif., but a charged-up Casamayor immediately put the Australian brawler on the defensive by scoring two knockdowns in the first round en route to a spectacular 25-2 connect edge. After three rounds the gulf had grown to 75-24 in terms of overall connects, but Katsidis fought his way back into the fight in the middle rounds as he out-landed Casamayor in rounds four through seven. The sixth and seventh were particularly effective as he out-connected the Cuban 29-10 in the sixth and 15-9 in the seventh, a span that included a 39-13 edge in power connects. But the fight turned irreversibly toward Casamayor in the opening moments of the 10th when a titanic left-right floored Katsidis and led to a stoppage.

Both Diaz and Katsidis are spectacular offensive forces for differing reasons. For Diaz, the reason is self-evident – he throws and connects at a rate rarely seen. The story for Katsidis is a little less obvious but still remarkable. Most fighters produce a power punch-to-jab ratio of about 2 to 1. Katsidis, however, is all about power – and put the emphasis on “all.” Seldom has there been a fighter who is more reliant on hooks, crosses and uppercuts than Katsidis.

Against Amonsodt, he attempted just 28 jabs (landing four!) while throwing 530 power punches (landing 255), which translates to a 95-5 ratio. Against Casamayor Katsidis threw 77 jabs (landing 22) while attempting 391 power shots (connecting on 122), a ratio of 84-16.

Diaz is a very similar fighter in terms of his offensive ratios. Against Julio Diaz, 78 percent of his attempted punches were power shots while against Campbell the percentage was 83 percent. In the 12 fights tracked by CompuBox, Diaz’s ratio was 69 percent. With two fighters that dependant on power shots, a toe-to-toe slugfest is virtually guaranteed. That may not bode well in terms of a long-lasting career for both, but for this one night, this is good for the fans and ultimately good for the sport.

Prediction: Given the styles, this will be a good one – and perhaps a great one – for as long as it lasts. High contact fights such as these will take a toll on the fighters’ scar tissues, so don’t be surprised if plenty of blood is spilled. Katsidis carries the superior shot-for-shot firepower but Diaz is capable of rolling up huge numbers. Both men have proved their physical and mental toughness and it will take a lot to knock the other out. Thus, the most likely result will be a decision, though there is a chance for a cut-induced TKO.

As revealed earlier, Diaz has the ability to force his opponents to fight at a faster pace than they are accustomed and such will also be the case with Katsidis. The first half of the fight will be spectacular as they will trade in the trenches but Diaz will pull away in the final three rounds to register a Fight of the Year worthy unanimous decision.