By CompuBox

Thanks to the outrage prompted by Gale Van Hoy’s 118-110 scorecard, one that validated Paul Malignaggi’s pre-fight fears, “The Magic Man” will get a second crack at former three-belt lightweight champion Juan Diaz – this time on neutral ground at the UIC Pavilion in Chicago Saturday. Will it be repeat for Diaz or revenge for Malignaggi? The CompuBox numbers from their initial bout last August may provide clues.

You Get Out What You Put In: The most shocking statistic from Diaz-Malignaggi I was Malignaggi throwing MORE punches than Diaz in all 12 rounds. Malignaggi began the bout with 109-56 (Paulie threw 84 jabs in round one- #4 all time for jr. welters.  Jr. Welter avg. is 25 jabs thrown per round) and 95-75 advantages in the first two rounds, trumping “The Baby Bull’s” vaunted volume game while also establishing his preferred distance with lateral movement. From rounds 3-12, Malignaggi averaged 74.5 punches per round to Diaz’s 53.2, a marked departure from what each had done in his last two major fights. Malignaggi averaged a meager 31.1 against Ricky Hatton and 56.3 against Lovemore N’Dou II while Diaz averaged 86.8 against Juan Manuel Marquez and 66.8 against Michael Katsidis. In short, Malignaggi’s activity and movement inhibited Diaz’s output and each must find a way to either maintain or reverse that trend.

Hit and Don’t Be Hit: While Malignaggi’s activity fueled his numerical advantages (191-178 in overall connects and 111-55 in landed jabs), Diaz was the superior marksman – a surprise given Malignaggi’s reputation for defense – as well as the more elusive man. Diaz led 27 percent to 20 in total punches, 24-18 in total jabs and 28-24 in power punches. He out-landed Malignaggi 123-80 in power connects, proving he can land his strongest shots on the Brooklynite. For a man whose defense has been heavily criticized Diaz should be encouraged by his performance in the first fight.

His accuracy helped Diaz stay in the fight. Despite being out-thrown every round, Diaz managed to out-land Malignaggi six times overall and he posted higher connect percentages in eight of the 12 rounds.

There Will Be Blood: Both have suffered dangerous cuts in recent outings and both were gashed in August’s bout. The area around Diaz’s left eye is particularly vulnerable and the scar tissue is breaking open at ever-earlier points. “The Baby Bull” will surely be gored – and gored early – by Malignaggi’s slashing punches and given his five knockouts in 26 wins that is the only likely way he will score a KO.

Prediction: In judging rematches, one must determine which man has the most room to improve – and whether that man is capable of doing it. Despite Malignaggi’s best performance since the first N’Dou fight in June 2007 – and Diaz’s abysmally low (for him) output – most saw it a 115-113 fight either way or a draw. If Diaz can still amass big numbers he can overpower his feather-fisted rival but the big question is whether the Campbell and Marquez defeats have turned him into a shopworn fighter age 26. The guess is no – or rather not yet. Diaz by a more convincing decision.