CompuBox Analysis: Jermain Taylor-Kelly Pavlik
by Bob Canobbio
It’s a pick-‘em fight, as Taylor, 27-0-1, 17KOs, makes the fifth defense of his middleweight titles vs. volume-puncher Pavlik, 31-0, 28KOs, attempting to become the third champion from Youngstown, Ohio, joining Ray Mancini and Harry Arroyo.
This past May, in Memphis, Taylor and former junior middleweight champ Cory Spinks produced a twelve round stinker whose stench nearly closed down Beale St. How foul was it? They combined to land 93 power punches all night (Taylor 51, Spinks 42- by comparison, Pavlik landed 89 power shots in rounds four thru six in his co-feature, seventh round ko of Edison Miranda). They combined to land double digits in power shots in just four rounds. When the love fest concluded, Taylor went 101 of 319 (27 punches thrown per round) in total punches to 85 of 542 (45 thrown per round) for Spinks, whose aggressiveness won the vote of judge Dick Flaherty (117-111). Judge Mike Pernick (115-113) and Gale Van Hoy (117-111) voted for Taylor, who never threw more than 35 total punches in any round.
Last December, Taylor came out blazing against Kassim Ouma (yes, another former jr. middleweight champ), landing 27 of 74 total punches in round one, including 22 of 56 power shots. Ouma bent, but didn’t break in round one, landing 16 of 55 total punches- 14 of which were power shots landed. Taylor got off 56 total punches in round two (landing 22), then averaged just 47 total punches thrownthe rest of the fight! He did landed 46% of his power shots for the fight, but threw just 31 per round over the last ten rounds, never hurting Ouma. Taylor spent much of the last six rounds in retreat, but still outlanded Ouma 244-177 in total punches.
Ouma, who’s averaged 100-plus punches thrown per round in nine of his fights tracked by CompuBox, had to respect Taylor’s power and therefore averaged just 58 thrown per round, landing 25%. Despite giving Taylor his props, Ouma still managed to throw more total punches than Taylor in nine of the twelve rounds, with one round even.
Taylor’s prior trip to Memphis (6/17/06) saw him barely escaped with his middleweight belts in an entertaining draw with another former 154-lb. champion, Winky Wright, a southpaw like Spinks and Ouma. Wright had a 226-163 edge in total connects (the third straight fight in which Taylor was outlanded in total punches), bolstered by a 103-41 edge in jabs landed. Taylor averaged 59 punches thrown per round vs. Winky, who landed 40% of his power shots. Taylor did average 26 jabs thrown per round vs. Winky and only 15 per round vs. Ouma, who he repeatedly tried to take out with one punch. Power shots saw Taylor landing 122 of 395 (31%), to 123 of 308 for Winky. Taylor landed the harder shots all night and was busier overall. Those 226 connects by Wright were the most landed vs. Taylor in 21 of his fights tracked by CompuBox.
Taylor won the last round on two cards to earn the draw. It was déjà vu all over again for Wright, who after averaging 56 punches thrown per round in the previous eleven rounds, threw just 32 in the 12th. Had Wright won the round, he would have won the title by majority decision. The cards read: 115-113 T; 115-113 W; 114-114. Wright pulled off the gas pedal in the last two rounds of his controversial majority decision loss to Fernando Vargas in ’99.
Taylor was also narrowly outlanded in total punches by Bernard Hopkins in both their fights. As was the case in their first meeting in July of ‘05, their December ‘05 rematch was more about what Hopkins didn’t do than what Taylor did do. B Hop averaged just 25 punches thrown per round over the first six frames and found himself down 6-0 on one card and 5-1 on the other two cards.
Let’s give Taylor some credit though. There had to be a reason why Bernard was reluctant to throw. The reason was Taylor’s power and overall size- and some smarts. Taylor conserved, averaging just 29 punches thrown per round over the first six rounds, nine less per round than in the first fight when he faded down the stretch. He was also much more efficient with is bread and butter punch, the jab. He landed nearly twice as many (64, 36 in first fight) in the rematch, while throwing 55 less. He was less available for the counterpunches of Hopkins.
Taylor had enough left in the tank to get off 44 total punches in the pivotal 11th round- his high total for the fight. He won the round on all three cards to secure a 115-113 decision on all cards. He also threw 40 punches in the final round, enough to hold off Hopkins, who threw 54 total punches his high total for the fight. Taylor averaged just 33 punches thrown in rounds eleven and twelve of the first fight and was in serious trouble throughout the final three minutes.
Overall, Taylor was busier, throwing 391 total punches (33 per round) to 371 for Hopkins, who had a 130-124 edge in total connects. Taylor had a 64-29 advantage in jabs landed, hitting on 31% after landing just 14% in the first fight.
In their first meeting, Taylor ended Hopkins’ ten-year-plus reign as middleweight champ with a split decision win. Hopkins started even slower than in the first fight, 19 punches thrown per round over the first eight rounds and Taylor was busier, throwing 38 per round. As a result, Taylor won seven of the first eight rounds on one card and six of eight on another. The third judge had the fight even thru eight.
As Taylor faded, Hopkins upped his output, outlanding Taylor 56-23 in total punches over the last four rounds. Despite outlanding Taylor 12-5 in total punches in round twelve, judge Duane Ford gave the round to Jermain, depriving Hopkins of a title-saving draw.
Overall, Taylor went 86 of 453 (19%-38 thrown per round) to 96 of just 326 (29%) for Hopkins, who had a 78-50 edge in power connects. Taylor fought throughout the fight with a lacerated scalp (courtesy of a well-place Hopkins head butt), that reportedly required 15 stitches.
Pavlik averaged 83 punches thrown and 28 landed in his last five fights. (KO 7 Miranda, KO 8 Zertuche, KO 4 Pierre, KO 6 McKart & KO 9 Zuniga.) He’s ko’d his last eight opponents. The middleweight average is 57 thrown, 18 landed. He also averaged 27 jabs thrown per round, landing just 20%. He landed 41% of his 56 power shots thrown per round. The five victims landed 25% overall and 29% of their power shots. They also landed just 3 of 15 jabs thrown.
Pavlik totally overwhelmed brawler Edison Miranda, landing 242 total punches, 193 of which were power shots before the fight was stopped at 1:54 of round seven. That’s 29 power shots landed per round- 17 more than the middleweight average. It wasn’t like wide-swinging Miranda wasn’t bringing it. He averaged 76 punches thrown per round, landing just 22%.
Pavlik landed 248 total punches, 186 of which were power shots, before stopping Jose Luis Zertuche midway thru round eight. He averaged 83 thrown per round and outlanded Zertuche 38-2 (yes two) in power shots over the last two rounds. Too concerned with incoming fire, Zertuche managed just 49 total punches thrown per round, landing 24%.
In July of ’06, Pavlik became the first (and only) fighter to stop Bronco McKart (he too a former jr. middleweight champ moving up in weight). Pavlik broke down McKart on the inside, landing an average of 21 of 73 power shots over the last five rounds. He outlanded McKart 52-29 in that department in rounds five and six. The light-hitting McKart had his moments, landing 56% of his power shots, with no effect on ‘The Ghost’.
After squaring off against three straight southpaws and not getting full effect from his jab, Taylor, who holds the CompuBox middleweight record of 677 jabs thrown (56 thrown per round, he also landed 243, #2 all time for middleweights) in a fight (vs. Freddie Cuevas), will need that weapon to hold off Pavlik. He’ll also need an increased overall punch output. The question is, can he and is he willing to fire off enough jabs (and total punches as well) in the face of Pavlik’s non-stop leather assault? He averaged 19 jabs thrown and four landed vs. southpaws Spinks, Ouma & Wright- that’s understandable. He averaged 20 thrown per round and four landed in his two wins over Hopkins, a master at neutralizing his opponents strengths. We have to go back to his wins over the faded William Joppy (12/04), the defenseless Daniel Edouard (2/05) and equally absorbent Cuevas (8/03) to find the kind of output he’ll require vs. Pavlik. Taylor averaged 38 jabs thrown per round and 14 landed among his 64 total punches thrown and 26 landed per round vs. Joppy, Edouard and Cuevas.
Taylor’s weight could be an issue. There were rumors circulating in the early summer that the Taylor camp was looking to make the Pavlik fight a non-title affair at a catch weight. No go said team Pavlik- we want the belts. Taylor’s been training at Manny Steward’s “Kronk East” gym at the Brookdale Resort in Tannersville, PA., away from any distractions that could have been an issue in his last two training camps. He trained in Memphis for Spinks and in Miami for Ouma, citing his fondness for warm weather. Things get rather cool in the mountains of Pennsylvania come September. Not exactly ideal weather for cutting weight.
Taylor is by far Pavlik’s toughest test to date as a pro. They’ve fought before, at the 2000 Olympic Trials, in Tampa. Taylor, 22 at the time, won a 11-5 decision over Pavlik, 17 yrs. old, who had just 50 amateur fights to over 200 for Taylor.
Taylor’s a big & strong middleweight whose power can blunt his opponents offense. As noted earlier, Ouma averaged just 58 total punches thrown per round after getting off 100-plus in his nine previous fights tracked by CompuBox.
Ditto for Winky- he averaged 54 total punches thrown per round vs. Taylor after averaging 67 thrown per round in his previous seven fights. As documented earlier, Hopkins managed just 29 punches thrown per round in his two losses to Taylor. B Hop averaged 53 per round in his decision win over Winky Wright- at a higher weight and nearly two years older. How effective will Pavlik be at a reduced rate of offense?
Taylor’s experience and overall athleticism (although Pavlik plays golf and tennis and also swims) will be the difference. He’s motivated for this fight, as he views Pavlik as a serious threat to score a KO if he’s not totally prepared. He didn’t have that respect (or fear) for Wright, Ouma or Spinks. Taylor by unanimous decision in a very entertaining fight in which both fighters will be rocked on several occasions.