CompuBox Analysis: Cintron vs. Margarito

By CompuBox

Two of boxing’s most enduring story lines are those of revenge and redemption, for there’s nothing like an added layer of urgency to spice up this most confrontational of sports. The rematch between IBF welterweight champion Kermit Cintron (27-1, 25 KO) and Antonio Margarito (35-5, 25 KO) on April 12 at Atlantic City’s Boardwalk Hall is a fight that boasts both elements. For Cintron it offers the opportunity to reverse his only defeat, a humbling fifth round TKO that spawned unjust accusations of cowardice after revealing his discouragement to the world shortly before his corner stopped the fight. For Margarito the bout represents a chance to regain a spot near the top of boxing’s deepest and most compelling weight class.

Much has changed since their first encounter in April 2005. Cintron is now the defending champion as he won the vacant IBF belt by stopping Mark Suarez in October 2006 while Margarito lost his WBO title last July to Paul Williams. Cintron is also under the tutelage of the offense-minded Emanuel Steward and is riding the confidence gained from five consecutive knockout victories. But Margarito also has reason to believe in himself as he scored a smashing one-round KO over Golden Johnson on the Miguel Cotto-Shane Mosley pay-per-view undercard last November.

Despite their reputations as aggressors, neither man started well in their first fight as Cintron was 8 of 58 (14 percent) and Margarito was 6 of 45 (13 percent) in the first round. Neither could reach the other with the jab (3 for 39 for Cintron and 2 of 31 for Margarito) and their power punches didn’t have much effect on the other. The pace, if not the ratio of success, picked up considerably in round two as Cintron unleashed 87 punches (landing 12) and Margarito cranked up 79 blows (landing 13). But the real turning point of the fight took place midway through the third when a Margarito flurry opened a gash over Cintron’s right eye. The cut was so severe that referee Kenny Bayless immediately escorted Cintron to Dr. Margaret Goodman, who allowed the fight to continue. And while the fight went on for two more rounds, the competitive balance had irreversibly tipped in Margarito’s favor.

The overall numbers ended up relatively even as Margarito was 61 of 295 (21 percent) to Cintron’s 42 of 272 (15 percent). The power punch figures were somewhat similar as Margarito was 51 of 165 (31 percent) and Cintron was 34 of 126 (27 percent). But when one looks at the numbers in the rounds before and after the cut, it reveals just how dramatically the fight turned.

In the first two rounds, Cintron had a slight edge overall as he landed 21 of 137 (15 percent) to Margarito’s 18 of 132 (14 percent), including a slim 15-13 gap in power connects.

But in rounds three through five, Margarito went 43 of 163 (26 percent), including 38 of 110 in power shots (35 percent) while Cintron was 21 of 135 (16 percent) overall and 18 of 69 in power shots (26 percent). Margarito went on to score four knockdowns, two each in the fourth and fifth rounds, before the combination of Bayless and Cintron’s corner called off the fight.

Cintron returned to the ring five months later by stopping Francisco Parra in three rounds, but it was his next fight – a 10th round TKO of David Estrada in April 2006 – that raised eyebrows and persuaded many that Cintron indeed possessed a fighter’s heart. The back-and-forth brawl was among the year’s best action fights and it was Cintron that pushed the heavy pace by averaging nearly 82 punches per round, almost 30 percent higher than the divisional average of 58 and 27 punches more than the first Margarito fight. His jab, though still below average in terms of effectiveness, was still much better than in the Margarito encounter. In that fight, he landed just 8 of 146 (5 percent) but against Estrada he was 70 of 401 (17 percent). The improvement also showed in his power numbers as he improved from 27 percent effectiveness against Margarito to 40 percent against Estrada (165 of 416).

In his most recent defense against Jesse Feliciano last November, Cintron’s power may have ultimately won out but he also revealed alarming trends against Feliciano’s kamikaze volume-punching attack. While Cintron landed at a higher percentage (43 percent to 40), Feliciano’s 86 punch-per-round pace consistently penetrated Cintron’s defenses. In the process of out-throwing Cintron 1,027-701, Feliciano also out-landed him 408-300, including 349-227 in power punches. Cintron was lucky that Feliciano’s blows lacked significant pop, but that won’t be the case against a Margarito that employs many of the same offensive principles as Feliciano.

Those principles were never more evident than Margarito’s December 2006 fight against Joshua Clottey when he set the all-time, all-divisions CompuBox record for punches thrown in a 12 round fight. By unleashing 1,675 blows, he surpassed the previous mark held by Zack Padilla, who threw 1,596 punches during his December 1993 fight against Ray Oliveira.

The numerical gaps between Margarito and Clottey, both of which suffered hand injuries, were extraordinary. "The Tijuana Tornado" threw 1,218 more punches (nearly 101 more per round!) than Clottey and the 842-92 gap in thrown jabs was Grand Canyon-esque. But Clottey remained competitive by landing at a far higher percentage in all categories. Clottey landed 45 percent of his 381 punches overall (to Margarito’s 20 percent), 40 percent of his 92 jabs (to Margarito’s 8 percent) and 47 percent of his 365 power punches (to Margarito’s 33 percent).

Paul Williams discovered that one way to defeat a prodigious volume puncher like Margarito is to turn the tables. (as did Nate Campbell vs. Juan Diaz)

Williams kept Margarito so occupied on defense that he had no chance to mount a consistent attack, and the result was a close but unanimous decision. Williams threw 1,256 punches to Margarito’s 652, including a titanic 606-61 bulge in thrown jabs. The fight remained close for Margarito against Williams for the same reason Clottey stayed within range against Margarito – similar power numbers. Williams owned a 650-591 advantage (five more per round) in power punches thrown and a 205-165 edge (less than four more per round) in power connects. This is good news for Cintron, who landed a combined 44 percent of his power punches against Estrada and Feliciano.

Prediction: Given what happened in the first fight, Cintron is eager to exact his revenge. However, styles usually trump emotion and Margarito’s style isn’t a good fit for the Puerto Rican champion. Once Margarito sensed Cintron was in trouble he revved up his offense and put him away, and Cintron’s fight with Feliciano revealed that volume punchers still trouble him. If the light-hitting Feliciano could wreak such havoc, what would Margarito, the CompuBox record holder for most punches thrown in a 12 round fight, do to him? The fact that Margarito has good power just adds to Cintron’s problems.

In short, the styles – and the numbers – offer the perfect recipe for a Margarito victory, either a convincing decision or a late-round TKO that will enable him to reclaim a 147-pound title and his place in the sweepstakes to determine welterweight superiority.