By Bob Canobbio
Photo © Ed Mulholland/FightWireImages.com
 
WBO champ Joe Calzaghe, 42-0, 31 KOs, is making the 20th defense of his version of the super middleweight title, an 8-1 favorite over Peter Manfredo, 26-3, 12 KOs, who makes his first appearance in a championship fight. 

Lennox Lewis’ seventh round knockout of Frank Bruno on October 1, 1993, drew an estimated crowd of 26,000. A crowd of 30,000-plus is expected at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales to see Calzaghe battle Manfredo.

Calzaghe, who won that vacant belt on October 11, 1997 with a decision win over British folk hero Chris ‘Simply The Best’ Eubank, is currently boxing’s longest reigning champion (9 ½ years).  Sven Ottke holds the record for successful super middleweight title defenses with 21.  The all-time record for successful defenses is 25, held by heavyweight great Joe Louis, who also holds the record for the longest reign of any champion (11 years, 9 months).  Calzaghe’s 9 ½ yr. reign is number four on the all-time list.

Super Joe made his U.S. television debut on March 4, 2006 in a unification fight vs. the then undefeated IBF champ Jeff Lacy.  It was all Calzaghe, as he outlanded Lacy 351-116 in total punches.  Calzaghe landed 37% of his 79 total punches thrown per round and 41% of his power shots.  Calzaghe’s applied constant pressure, averaged 22 jabs thrown per round and only allowed Lacy to get off just 37 total punches per round.  The badly-beaten Lacy went down in the 12th and landed just 26% of his total punches. The judges saw a landslide for Calzaghe, with scores of 119-105, 119-107 and 119-107.

Last October, Calzaghe in a flat performance, landed 30% of his 51 punches per round on route to a decision win over Sakio Bika (20-1-2).  The physical Bika landed just 24% of his 45 punches thrown per round. Calzaghe showboated early.  He was also cut over the left eye from a Bika head butt in round four. Bika was penalized a point in the fifth after another head butt.  The final scores were 117-110; 117-110 and 116-111. 

In his defense against Kabary Salem (23-3, 12 Kos) on 10/22/04, Calzaghe rebounded from a fourth round knockdown to win a comfortable decision with scores of 116-109, 117-109 and 118-107. Calzaghe was also down in the second round of his successful defense against former super middleweight champ Byron Mitchell, who only a few moments later was dropped in the same round and was never able to make it to the third as Calzaghe pummeled him with power shots. 

Calzaghe’s closest call was a split decision win over fellow-Brit and over achiever Robin Reid on February 13, 1999.  Reid won a version of the 168-lb title in 1996 with a 7th round KO over Vincenzo Nardiello.  Reid also lost title fights against. Thulane Malinga, Silvio Branco, Sven Ottke and was stopped in eight rounds by Lacy in August of ’05.

Manfredo gained notoriety not in victory, but in defeat.  Fighting in Los Angeles, in a rematch of “The Contender” finale versus hometown favorite Sergio Mora, Manfredo had a 188-133 edge in punches landed, yet found himself on the short end of a split decision loss. Two judges saw it for Mora, with identical scores of 77-75, while the third had Manfredo up by 77-75.  He outlanded Mora in all eight rounds, averaging 74 punches thrown per round to 52 per round for Mora. 

Five months earlier, with $1 million on the table for the winner, Manfredo was outlanded 168-108 by Mora in final match of The Contender tournament.  Both fighters averaged 71 punches thrown per round, but Manfredo was able to land an average of one jab per round, while throwing 11 per round. 

1
Manfredo scored a pair of third round knockouts in 2006 over a pair of fellow-New Englanders.   In October, he stopped cross-town rival Joey Spina eight months after icing the absorbent Scott Pemberton.

In May of ’04, Manfredo landed 36% of his 60 punches per round on route to a twelve round decision win over Anthony Bonsante.  Manfredo also landed 50% of his power shots (216 of 435) vs. Bonsante, who lost a nine round technical decision to John Duddy on March 16, 2007.  Allan Green also stopped Bonsante in five rounds on July 21, 2006.

To say the cards are stacked against Manfredo is an understatement.  He’s fighting his first title fight, and it’s on Calzaghe’s home-turf, with a crowd of 30,000-plus expected.  Calzaghe’s the better boxer and the naturally bigger man.  Manfredo has fought seven fights at 154-pounds, while Calzaghe’s fought his entire 13 ½ yr. career at 168 pounds.  Youth may be on Manfredo’s side, he’s 26 and Calzaghe is 35, but that’s his only advantage.  He needs to be physical like Bika and turn this into a street fight, but he doesn’t hit hard enough (12 KOs in 29 fights) to get the job done. 
 
Calzaghe wants to make a statement in front of his adoring fans and erase any after thoughts from the mediocre performance against Bika.  He also wants to send a message to the other super middleweight champ, Mikkel Kessler, who looked dominant in his one-sided decision win over Librado Andrade last week.

I see Calzaghe winning, by late round stoppage, and in the process he sets up a unification super fight with Kessler.