By CompuBox (Photo by Chris Farina/Top Rank)

The first card on HBO’s World Championship Boxing series in 2009 is an intriguing welterweight showdown between WBC champion Antonio Margarito (37-5, 27 KO) and former three division king Shane Mosley (45-5, 38 KO) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The 30-year-old "Tijuana Tornado" is a solid 4-to-1 favorite to beat the 37-year-old "Sugar Shane," but their combative mindsets should still make for an exciting and potentially dramatic night for boxing fans.

This analysis will break down their performances against a recent common opponent – Miguel Cotto as well as their deeds against fighters who share similarities (whether anatomically or stylistically) to their foe. But before we get to that portion, here’s a breakdown of their numbers against Cotto:

* Mosley and Cotto both landed 248 punches in their November 10, 2007 bout, though Mosley had to throw 99 more (774-675) to get there.  Mosley’s 774 total punches thrown vs. Cotto were the most he’s thrown in 25 of his fights tracked by CompuBox.  He also landed a career best 216 power punches vs, Cotto, 42 more than he landed in his upset win over Oscar delaHoya on 6/17/00.  Not bad output for the then-36 yr. old. 

Despite owning a seven-inch reach advantage (74 inches to 67), it was Cotto who connected with more jabs (98-71) despite throwing 151 fewer (288-439). Conversely, Mosley topped Cotto in total power connects 177-150 even though he logged 52 fewer attempts (335-387).

The most surprisingly strategic turn unfolded in the final three rounds, sessions that in the past saw the Puerto Rican pound his weary foes into submission. Mosley, however, was the physically and statistically stronger man as he was 62 of 201 to Cotto’s 52 of 156 overall while out-landing him 49-34 in power shots. Cotto used his then-underrated jab to guide his way through the crisis, out-landing the speedier Mosley 26-15 even though he threw 52 fewer (82-134). In fact, Cotto’s jab had been effective throughout as he out-performed Mosley in eight rounds and reached double-digit connects four times, all in the first six rounds.

But while Cotto showed off his jab, he exposed a weakness – vulnerability to power shots. Mosley landed 53 percent of his 335 power attempts, topping 50 percent accuracy seven rounds (including the first six) and never dropping below 43 percent (round eight).

* When Margarito and Cotto squared off this past July 26 in Las Vegas, the Tornado brutally capitalized on the chinks in Cotto’s armor that Mosley uncovered. While Cotto was outdoing Margarito in terms of total connects (280-267 by fight’s end) it was Margarito’s steady bombardment of power blows that eventually turned the fight his way. Like the first fight between Julio Cesar Chavez and Meldrick Taylor, the Philadelphian controlled the bout’s distance and flow only to absorb a unglamorous but strength-sapping array of hooks, crosses, uppercuts and body work that eventually bloodied his face and weakened his resolve.

While Cotto won seven of the 11 rounds in terms of total connects, it was Margarito’s withering effectiveness in rounds four through 10 that set up the finish in round 11.  Though Cotto held a slight edge in total connects in that span (184-181), 166 of Margarito’s connects were power shots – a staggering 91.7 percent – while Cotto logged 113 power connects (61.4 percent).

Also, the residual wear and tear of defending against 471 power attempts not only wore Cotto down but also inhibited the Puerto Rican’s power attack as he tried just 248 power shots. While he enjoyed superior accuracy (46 percent to 35 percent), Margarito’s size and strength proved to be too much. In the 11th, Margarito was 24 of 56 (including 21 of 43 in power shots) while Cotto was a mere 6 of 20 (5 of 10) before Kenny Bayless stopped the bout at the 2:05 mark.

As for the second part of this analysis – foes who either share anatomical or stylistic parallels – Margarito’s foil will be newly crowned IBF king Joshua Clottey while Mosley’s first bout with the willowy Vernon Forrest will be reviewed.

* At 5-8 with a 70-inch reach, Clottey stacks up well with the 5-9 Mosley, who owns a 74-inch reach. Stylistically the plodding Clottey does not share Mosley’s speed or experience at the world class level but is still one of the best welterweights in the world. The bout itself was both historic and revealing for a variety of reasons.

Consider:

-- Margarito set the all-time CompuBox record for punches thrown in a 12 round fight with 1,675, an average of 139.6 punches per round in a division where the average is 58.3.

-- Margarito threw a staggering 101.5 more blows per round than Clottey (38.1), 68.5 more jabs per round (70.2 to 7.7) and 39 more power punches per round (69.4 to 30.4). While Clottey suffered a broken hand in round five that surely affected his output, Margarito, who came into the bout with ankle and shoulder injuries, didn’t let his maladies impact his performance.

But while Margarito overwhelmed Clottey with activity, there were points of weakness. In spite of the canyon-esque difference in output the numbers of connects were much closer. While Margarito threw 1,218 more punches, he landed only 130 more (337-207) overall, 29 more jabs (66-37) and 101 more power shots (271-170). Clottey landed 45 percent of his blows overall to Margarito’s 20, 40 percent of his jabs to Margarito’s 8 percent and, most importantly, 47 percent of his power shots to Margarito’s 33 percent. With Mosley landing 53 percent of his shots against a more elusive Cotto, how well will Mosley perform against the rangier and more aggressive Margarito?

Speaking of range, the 6-0 Forrest is one inch taller and his 73-inch reach is equal to Margarito’s. But when "The Viper" met Mosley the first time it wasn’t his jab that beat "Sugar Shane" (who was then the pound-for-pound king), it was his power punching. A savage right uppercut paved the way to two second round knockdowns and the 25 power punches Forrest landed in round 10 remains the most a Mosley opponent has ever landed in a three-minute period in the 25 bouts tracked by CompuBox.

Forrest’s uncharacteristic show of aggression helped him to achieve the most lopsided defeat of Mosley’s career (115-110, 117-108, 118-108). 

Against Mosley the first time, Forrest averaged 57 punches per round (slightly below the welterweight average of 58.3) but he attempted 10 more power punches per round (26.4 to 16.4) and almost doubled Mosley’s connect total (113-58). He used his length and activity to limit Mosley’s offense. In the 12 fights tracked by CompuBox before he faced Forrest the first time, Mosley averaged 53.3 punches per round, landed 48.5 percent of his blows and connected on 59 percent of his power punches. Against Forrest, however, Mosley’s output and effectiveness was reduced by nearly half (33.4 punches per round, 25.7 percent overall accuracy and just 29.4 percent of his power shots). Because he used his height and reach aggressively, he kept Mosley’s gifts in check. And this was against a prime Mosley, not the 37-year-old Margarito is about to face.

Prediction: After years of toiling in the shadows Margarito is now enjoying the fruits of his victory over Cotto and he will not be eager to surrender them so easily. On the other hand, Mosley has continued to challenge himself time and again at an age when others would be content to rest on their laurels. Both men are proud warriors and that pride will come through from first bell to last. Ultimately, chronology and physiology will be the two deciding factors. Margarito is far closer to his physical prime and his withering volume-punching attack will gradually chip away at Mosley’s physical and psychological armor. Out of respect for Mosley’s proven durability, the prediction will be a comfortable unanimous decision for Margarito but if anyone has the tools to inflict the first stoppage loss on Mosley it is the "Tijuana Tornado."