By CompuBox
When A.J. Liebling called boxing “The Sweet Science” he did not have fights like Saturday night’s HBO doubleheader in mind. Heavyweights Chris Arreola and Tomasz Adamek and junior middleweights Alfredo Angulo and Joel Julio are action heroes with high-octane offenses that have produced a combined 97 knockouts in 120 victories – a glossy and gory .808 KO percentage.
Therefore, the odds are that viewers will be in for a brief but highly entertaining night at the fights. The only questions to be answered are whose lights will be turned out and why. The CompuBox numbers will delve into each fighter’s past to provide an educated – but not ironclad – guess.
Topping the card will be onetime heavyweight title challenger Arreola against Adamek, a former light heavyweight and cruiserweight champion who is looking to conquer his third weight class. Factors that may determine the outcome include:
Arreola’s Conditioning: Size matters but in Arreola’s case too much size may hurt his cause. More than most fighters, Arreola’s weight has a direct bearing on his ability to produce offense. Against Chazz Witherspoon, a 239-pound Arreola was prolific yet punishing as he landed 58.7 percent of his 61.3 punches per round (far above the divisional norms of 37.8 and 46.1) while landing 61.6 percent of his 46 power shots. Arreola threw fewer shots overall (180 to 200) but buried him under with an 85-42 bulge in connected power shots en route to a most brutal third round DQ.
Against Travis Walker, a 254-pound Arreola could only muster 27 punches per round while at 255 against Jameel McCline he averaged 36.5. His saving grace has been his accuracy, for he landed 49.3 percent (overall) and 62.5 percent (power) against McCline while against Walker those figures were 54.3 percent and 65.5 percent respectively.
Though better conditioned at 251 against Vitali Klitschko, Arreola couldn’t cope with Big Brother’s size and activity. Averaging 80.2 punches per round, Klitschko battered Arreola to the tune of 301-86 in total connects, 150-62 in jab connects and 151-24 in landed power shots. Arreola could not get inside “Dr. Ironfist’s” mammoth reach and thus could throw only 33.1 punches per round.
With an added focus on conditioning that began with the Klitschko fight, Arreola upped the activity despite weighing a career-high 263 pounds against the out-sized but obscenely courageous Brian Minto. Arreola averaged 52 punches per round, connecting on 47.1 percent of his overall blows and 56.8 percent of his power shots in amassing bulges of 98-63 (overall) and 67-45 (power). Then again, the vast difference in builds may have emboldened Arreola to the point where he could up his work rate without fear of exhausting himself.
Adamek’s activity: Unlike Arreola, Adamek is a gym rat and at 220 pounds he has retained much of the work rate he had at the lighter weights. His heavyweight debut against the aged but very large Andrew Golota provides a useful preview of what he might try against Arreola.
The first phase is increased activity. He averaged 69.2 punches per round, a full one-third more than the heavyweight norm of 46.1. The second is a busy and accurate jab; his 31.2 jabs per round is far above the divisional average of 19.3 and his 11.8 connects per round is nearly double the 6.0 a typical heavyweight lands.
Golota’s ample body offered a very accessible target as Adamek went 161 of 346 (45 percent) overall and 102 of 190 in power shots (54 percent) and Arreola’s poor defensive numbers indicate he may suffer a similar fate. Witherspoon landed 43.3 percent of his 97 power shots while Klitschko and Minto landed at 53.4 percent and 46.4 percent respectively.
Adamek’s numbers against a more defensive-minded and quicker-handed Jason Estrada are a positive sign for his chances. In out-landing Estrada 249-179 (overall), 93-54 (jabs) and 156-125 (power), Adamek landed at 40.9 percent (overall), 33.2 percent (jabs) and 47.4 percent (power) while keeping Estrada’s numbers down to 31.3 (overall), 23.7 (jab) and 36.3 (power).
Prediction: For Adamek to win he must have several factors in his favor. First, he must hope Arreola reports in less than optimum shape – a likely scenario given his recent history. Second, he must hit and not be hit. And third, he must be able to absorb Arreola’s best shot and bounce back strong. If these three things happen – and if he fights a perfect fight – he can emerge victorious.
Conversely, Arreola has a much higher margin of error. All he has to do is catch Adamek with one massive blow that scrambles his equilibrium and once Arreola sees that his killer instinct will take care of the rest. If Arreola reports in shape – meaning in the low 240s or below – this one will be over within three rounds because of the sheer volume and power he can generate. If he’s in the 250s it will take longer and if he’s in the 260s he opens the door for Adamek to spring the upset. The guess here is that Arreola, with a possible second title shot in the offing if he wins, will be in good enough shape to score a TKO in the middle rounds.
The co-feature may be more combustible than the main event because Angulo and Julio are pure bombers that love to throw and trade.
Once “El Perro” sinks his teeth into an opponent he will rip and tear at him until there’s nothing left. He averaged an incredible 121.1 punches per round against Andrey Tsurkan – more than double the junior middleweight average of 58.8. Because Tsurkan bravely hung in there behind his own 72.2 punch-per-round attack he suffered dearly. Angulo out-threw him 1,211-729, out-landed him 400-143 and meted out a 296-76 beating in terms of landed power shots.
His third round TKO of Harry Joe Yorgey was economically vicious. Averaging 77.7 punches per round, Angulo landed 48.5 percent of his 233 punches overall and connected on 63.1 percent of his 157 power shots. Because Yorgey was forced to focus on defense he couldn’t launch a sufficient counterattack as he was out-thrown 238-125, out-landed 113-31 overall and 99-25 in power connects. A wicked overhand right produced one of 2009’s most frightening knockouts.
Angulo said he was ill during his only loss to Kermit Cintron and the distribution of punches may bear him out. Although his work rate remained high (79.8 per round), the ratio between jabs and power shots was 57-43 in favor of jabs as opposed to the 67-34 (power) and 50-50 splits he had against Yorgey and Tsurkan. The jab is a much less physically demanding punch to throw so it would figure he would fire more jabs if he were sick.
But while illness may have played a role in how Angulo reacted to Cintron, it was Cintron’s beautiful boxing and hyperkinetic pace that was the primary reason Angulo lost. Cintron averaged 91.2 punches per round in piling up advantages of 316-277 (overall), 149-122 (jabs) and 167-155 (power).
Julio’s bombs-away style tends to draw plenty of return fire, and that’s bad news against Angulo. James Kirkland, who fights very similarly to Angulo, posted revealing numbers. In stopping Julio in six rounds, Kirkland’s 76.5-punch-per-round attack limited Julio’s output to 51 and he enjoyed numerical bulges as a result (125-93 in total connects, 31-14 in landed jabs and 94-79 in power connects).
WBO champion Sergiy Dzinziruk offset Julio’s activity (83.3 punches per round) with economical boxing and excellent defense. Despite throwing 400 fewer punches (600-1,000), the southpaw Dzinziruk out-landed Julio 232-180 and kept the Colombian down to 18 percent (overall), 10.7 percent (jabs) and 23.4 percent (power). Conversely, Dzinziruk connected on 38.7 percent overaqll and 52.2 percent of his 19.2 power shots per round. It is unlikely that Angulo will follow a similar strategy, but it does illustrate how porous Julio’s defense is.
Julio’s most recent fight was a six-round decision win over the 14-22-4 Clarence “Sonny Bono” Taylor. While the contender won almost every round, Taylor managed to out-land Julio 24-18 in the first round and hung in longer than a sub-.500 fighter usually would against a highly ranked fighter. Julio won mostly on power punching as his 91-44 advantage powered his 139-87 overall edge.
Prediction: Although the 27-year-old Angulo is two years older, he is perceived to be the fresher fighter. This will not go the distance and it will be a race between Angulo’s brittle brows and Julio’s porous defense. Since Julio being hit is a more likely possibility, Angulo will win by a very exciting sixth round TKO.
