By Keith Idec
Bob Arum claims this isn’t the start of a Manny Pacquiao retirement tour.
After the 38-year-old Pacquiao faces overmatched Australian underdog Jeff Horn on Sunday in Brisbane, Australia, Pacquiao’s promoter expects to bring back the Filipino legend for a pay-per-view-worthy fight sometime in November. According to Arum, this fight against Horn, which will draw a crowd that could exceed 60,000 to Suncorp Stadium in Horn’s hometown, simply made too much business sense to avoid.
With assistance from the Australian government and various revenue streams from the event, Arum will be able to pay Pacquiao very well for a fight the WBO welterweight champion is heavily favored to win. But after what should amount to a tune-up fight for the aging icon, Arum anticipates a return to pay-per-view sometime before Pacquiao’s 39th birthday in December.
Of course, Pacquiao’s two previous pay-per-view fights came in the forms of an unnecessary third fight against Timothy Bradley and a bout with Jessie Vargas, who Bradley beat rather convincingly the previous year. Thus Arum’s definition of what belongs on pay-per-view might differ from yours.
Regardless, Pacquiao will have to fight someone better and more widely known than Horn (16-0-1, 11 KOs), who inexplicably ascended to the top spot in the WBO’s welterweight rankings since turning pro four years ago.
Below is an assessment of Pacquiao’s potential opponents, listed alphabetically, for the scrutinized southpaw’s probable return in November.
Adrien Broner
Record: 33-2 (24 KOs, 1 NC)
Age: 27
Hometown: Cincinnati, Ohio
Why him?: The former four-division champion would have to upset Mikey Garcia on July 29 in Brooklyn to make this a viable option for Pacquiao. Beating Garcia would be Broner’s biggest victory, even though Garcia is moving up from 135 pounds to 140 for their 12-round fight at Barclays Center. A win against Garcia would make him much more marketable as Pacquiao’s opponent than when he was coming off a split-decision victory over Adrian Granados (18-5-2, 12 KOs). Broner’s polarizing personality also would help the promotion.
Why not him?: If he loses to Garcia, it obviously wouldn’t make sense for Pacquiao to box Broner in November. Even if he beats Garcia, the turnaround might be too quick for Broner, who would barely have a month off between the time he fights Garcia and when he’d have to go back to training camp for a Pacquiao fight in November. Broner also might want more money than Arum wants to pay for him to fight Pacquiao if he upsets Garcia.
Terence Crawford
Record: 31-0 (22 KOs)
Age: 29
Hometown: Omaha, Nebraska
Why him?: A Pacquiao-Crawford fight has been discussed for two years and should be easy to make because Arum’s company, Top Rank Inc., promotes both boxers. It’s also the type of high-profile fight and substantial payday Crawford deserves after becoming one of the top fighters, pound-for-pound, in the sport.
Why not him?: Among the reasons this fight hasn’t happened yet is because Arum fears that it won’t generate the type of pay-per-view revenue required to pay Pacquiao the reported $20 million guarantee he wants to face Crawford. The undefeated Crawford, who owns the WBC and WBO super lightweight championships, is scheduled to participate in a full 140-pound title unification fight against IBF/IBO/WBA champion Julius Indongo (22-0, 11 KOs) on August 19 in Lincoln, Nebraska. Depending on the date of Pacquiao’s return, that might not leave enough time for Crawford, assuming he defeats Indongo, to take a break before he’d have to begin training camp to challenge Pacquiao.
Danny Garcia
Record: 33-1 (19 KOs)
Age: 29
Hometown: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Why him?: Al Haymon, Garcia’s manager, was willing to deliver Broner as Pacquiao’s opponent. Presumably, the same principles would apply to getting Garcia a fight against Pacquiao. The former WBC welterweight champion’s style would help Pacquiao produce an entertaining fight. He also has more credibility as a possible Pacquiao opponent than Amir Khan, who was knocked out by Garcia in July 2012.
Why not him?: He is coming off a loss, albeit a split decision, to Keith Thurman on March 4 at Barclays Center. Then again, if Pacquiao can fight Jeff Horn, he can fight Garcia coming off his first defeat in a welterweight title unification fight against an top opponent.
Mikey Garcia
Record: 36-0 (30 KOs)
Age: 29
Hometown: Oxnard, California
Why him?: He’s an undefeated three-division champion who would be fresh off a high-profile victory over Adrien Broner. If Pacquiao beat Garcia, it would allow Arum to exact some revenge against a fighter who took Arum to court to get out of his promotional contract.
Why not him?: Garcia probably wouldn’t go up higher than 140 pounds, even for a Pacquiao payday. Pacquiao and his trainer have long said he still can make 140, but the weight would be one of the issues they’d have to overcome to make this fight. Garcia said recently he has been led to believe Arum wouldn’t let their history stand in the way of Garcia fighting Pacquiao or Crawford, but Arum might not want to reward Garcia with a career-high purse after their legal entanglement.
Amir Khan
Record: 31-4 (19 KOs)
Age: 30
Hometown: Bolton, England
Why him?: Pacquiao obviously is interested in fighting Khan, who Pacquiao preferred to face over Horn. Like Broner, Khan is a polarizing but flawed fighter who would be a compelling opponent for an aging Pacquiao.
Why not him?: The former super lightweight champion hasn’t fought since Canelo Alvarez knocked him out in the sixth round of their WBC middleweight title fight nearly 14 months ago in Las Vegas. Khan also had hand surgery in September. Between the long layoff and testing his hand, a tune-up fight would better serve Khan before he headed into a fight of this magnitude. He was willing, though, to fight Pacquiao without taking an interim bout when they were negotiating earlier this year.
Errol Spence Jr.
Record: 22-0 (19 KOs)
Age: 27
Hometown: DeSoto, Texas
Why him?: This powerful southpaw might be the best welterweight in boxing. The 2012 Olympian is coming off an extremely impressive, 11th-round stoppage of Kell Brook on May 27 in Sheffield, England, Brook’s hometown, and would provide Pacquiao an opportunity to prove he still can win at the elite level.
Why not him?: Spence might be too young, too strong and too good for this past-his-prime Pacquiao. Haymon also wants to match Spence against unbeaten WBC/WBA 147-pound champion Keith Thurman sometime in 2018. Haymon manages Spence and Thurman, and could save their showdown for the next high-profile fight CBS broadcasts live on free TV.
Keith Thurman
Record: 28-0 (22 KOs, 1 NC)
Age: 28
Hometown: Clearwater, Florida
Why him?: Other than Pacquiao, Thurman is the most accomplished champion at 147 pounds. Like Spence, he would afford Pacquiao a chance to prove himself against a young, unbeaten champion in a title unification fight.
Why not him?: Thurman underwent elbow surgery April 19 and might not be ready to fight again until sometime early in 2018. When he does return, Thurman might prefer to make a mandatory defense of either his WBC or WBA title before trying to secure a partial unification fight against Spence.
Keith Idec is a senior writer/columnist for BoxingScene.com. He can be reached on Twitter @Idecboxing.