When Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Terence Crawford were first being linked together it struck me as a mismatch – it just didn’t make sense. I couldn’t even picture them in the ring together – it was a former light-heavyweight champion against a former lightweight champion – and, particularly with David Benavidez chasing Canelo, a fight between them didn’t interest me at all.
It didn’t appear to interest them at the time, either. Canelo didn’t speak like he was interested. Crawford spoke like he believed 168lbs was too far for him to move up.
In 2025, that’s all changed – Crawford, for a start, is speaking about the prospect of dominating Canelo – and, having seen Canelo struggle in May against William Scull, it interests me more than ever, too.
There may still be more appealing fights that can be made – certainly those with more significance in their ability to establish the number one in some competitive weight divisions – but Canelo-Crawford is, unquestionably, bigger than any of them.
Regardless of the perceived advantage Canelo has in height and weight, Crawford enters the ring with plenty at stake. Under the most intense analyses, Crawford’s record is being questioned, and by some even criticised. A defeat against Canelo – the first of his career, by the way – would intensify that. Would he still be an all-time great? Absolutely. Would his legacy still be fantastic? Emphatically, yes. But the critics who choose to point out that his best win, against Errol Spence, came when Spence was past his best would grow louder.
None of which is to suggest that there isn’t more pressure on Canelo. Canelo has an even better record than Crawford, but he also has far more and far louder critics. If he loses to Crawford it’ll jeopardise his standing as one of Mexico’s greatest ever fighters; it’ll also lead to more accusations that he’s been overrated.
Against Scull, Canelo was listless and didn’t find the additional gear he’s so often impressed with in the past. He struggled to cut the ring off like he did, for example, in 2021 against Caleb Plant; he didn’t throw a lot of punches. Scull may have been reluctant to engage, but Canelo lacked either the gear or the desire he needed to make the statement he was expected to. He may believe that it’s still there, but if they fight for long enough all fighters eventually learn that it isn’t – and it’s only once they’re in the ring, and not in the gym, that they do. His turn may be about to come.
Crawford, even at 37, remains one of the most dynamic, versatile and dangerous fighters in the world. His ability to stop opponents; his ability to strategise game plans and to execute them; his competitiveness and stomach for the fight are all considerable strengths. He also appears to have taken his time to gain lean muscle mass and therefore be strong at 168lbs. There’s also the reality that he’s been in the gym with Lester Martinez, whose size and intensity makes him the ideal sparring partner with which to prepare for Canelo. All mean Crawford poses a real threat to Canelo.
But he is human. He’s also far from a natural super middleweight. His victory in 2024 over Israil Madrimov showed that he’s not even a natural fit at junior middleweight. He’s also fighting three weight classes above where he’s at his best. Even given how little punishment he’s taken in his career, the combination of the natural weight disadvantage he is confronting, his age, and his relative inactivity is capable of working against him. The Madrimov fight showed that size matters – he got hit that night, and showed weaknesses that weren’t apparent a year earlier against Spence. Even if the under-appreciated Madrimov’s abilities and style – which is vastly different to Canelo’s – make comparisons with what could unfold against Canelo almost irrelevant, it doesn’t mean that they didn’t potentially give cause for concern.
Even if we can be more confident about Canelo’s decline, there’s little question he retains a fantastic chin. At his best, he’s also often showed incredible balance, explosive punching power, a fast jab, a great defence built on his movement and reactions, and the ability to cut off the ring.
The last of those strengths is in greater doubt than ever – his feet, which were never the fastest, are slowing further. He’s also throwing fewer punches than he previously has, and, at 35, his lengthy professional career – he turned professional as a teenager – and the many fights he’s had, not least the three 12-round contests with Gennady Golovkin, are catching up with him. His hunger can also be questioned – he’s been wealthy beyond his wildest dreams for a very long time.
Crawford has to fight a tactical fight if he is to succeed in exploiting Canelo’s increasing flaws. He has to build an early lead while Canelo is attempting to move into higher gears; he also has to use his reach to fight at long range, and his ability to box from both stances to test Canelo. If he can complement those by clenching on the inside with the same tactically astute instincts and strength to find the most powerful positions possible, he can be really well placed for when Canelo slows down in the later rounds.
The key to victory for Canelo comes in him making the ring as small as possible and hitting Crawford whenever and wherever he can – whether that be the elbow, the shoulder, the hipbones or the head. He needs to use his size and power to break down the body of the smaller fighter. He also needs to avoid sacrificing too many of the opening rounds, impose himself and damage Crawford in the middle rounds, and pursue either a late stoppage or a brutal beating down the stretch.
I anticipate a slow start at the Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas – a slow start in which Canelo and Crawford feel each other out and box with a sense of mutual respect. I also anticipate Crawford being active enough to win the early rounds despite occasional flashes of Canelo’s speed and strength, before Canelo applies increasing pressure in the middle rounds that I expect to be the most entertaining and action-filled between them. I then expect Canelo to tire, and to see Crawford attempting to edge the later rounds to win an extremely close, competitive, and tactical fight.
Canelo, as the bigger fighter, should be the favourite, but I favour Crawford. The intangibles – including his preparation and mindset, and the momentum of his career – demand as much. We’ve never seen him lose or anyone show how he can be beaten; he’s capable of resisting the pressure that will come his way in the middle rounds and of finishing strongly to earn a narrow decision.
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If the main event proves less entertaining than hoped, Martinez-Christian Mbilli is capable of upstaging it. It’s an unmissable 50-50 fight that’s destined to be action-packed.
Martinez is under-appreciated. He’s tactically adept, busy, big, strong and durable at super middleweight. Mbilli is physically strong, seeks to apply pressure, and moves forward in the pursuit of throwing big punches.
I don’t envisage anything other than a war of attrition. I also favour a victory for Martinez, on the grounds that he’s the cleaner puncher and has the better technique capable of separating how evenly matched they are.
