By Cliff Rold
Seldom to two fighters with big names and potential for the Hall of Fame enter the ring against each other under a gray cloud. With the World Lightweight title at stake, two aging warriors will enter the ring knowing a loss could mark the end of their run near the top of the sport. In a bout with so much at stake, it can be expected each will bring whatever they have left in the tank and attempt to do what they are best at.
What they are each best at is why some folks are a little concerned.
On his best days, 37-year old champion Joel Casamayor (36-3-1, 22 KO) has always been a boxer first, working the perimeter, throwing in combination, forcing his opponents to come to him and walk into expert counter shots. At his best, 35-year old Juan Manuel Marquez (48-4-1, 35 KO) is more stationary than Casamayor, jabbing, methodically breaking down foes, forcing opponents into traps laced with expert counter shots. Against aggressive foes, they can be brilliant. Against each other, who leads?
Fans who want to know will tune in to find out. Will the ages of the men force both to square up more than they might want to? Will the reflexes have dulled enough to make openings and force a fight? And will Casamayor, who has been at Lightweight since 2004, be able to impose his size on a Marquez who still battled at Featherweight in 2006?
Let’s go to the Report Card.
Speed: Both at their peak, Casamayor would have a heavy advantage here but he’s not at his peak anymore. Marquez isn’t either but unless something drastic has slipped since his March rematch with Manny Pacquiao, he isn’t as far from his prime as the calendar would normally dictate. Supplementing what speed he retains, Marquez also remains a master of timing, able to create holes with his jab, land the long right hand, and snap off his lead left uppercut. While Casamayor might have lost a step, it wasn’t as big as many thought after the dismal outing against Jose Armando Santa Cruz last year. Against Michael Katsidis in March, rumors of Casamayor’s demise proved exaggerated. He was razor sharp early, dropping the younger man twice, and bullet perfect late in landing a perfectly timed counter to wreck Katsidis after coming off the deck himself. He needed reflexes to do it. In a bigger fight, against a more famous foe, one can assume he’ll find them at least once more. Pre-Fight Grades: Casamayor B; Marquez B
Power: Both men are thinking fighters first, sometimes thinking too much and putting themselves in closer fights than they need to. It doesn’t mean they don’t do a world of damage. Juan Diaz hit Katsidis, clean, probably twice as many times as Casamayor did last weekend and Katsidis was never stunned. Diaz isn’t a puncher, but he’s no featherweight either. Marquez can be a brute when he needs to, especially to the body. Remember when a body shot to Robbie Peden in 2002 caused the Australian to cough up blood in the corner? No, these aren’t one-punch guys for the most part but they know how to pile on punishment. Critically for this fight, both have been prone to dishing out and being on the end of critical knockdown calls. If they can trade a couple here, the fight can far exceed expectations. Pre-Fight Grades: Casamayor B; Marquez B
Defense: Marquez has the advantage in terms of defense right now because he appears to have better legs and legs are a bigger part of Casamayor’s defense than Marquez’s. Marquez has never been a slickster, relying instead on blocking, slipping, rolling and applying the mental pressure of still being right there ready to throw. Casamayor also employs deft head movement and effective shoulder rolls but he also is able to move out of range. If he doesn’t defend the body, that tactic could leave him. It almost cost him versus Katsidis. In primer times, against Jose Luis Castillo in 2004, Casamayor faded under a relentless body assault late. At 37, a fade could mean an end. Pre-Fight Grades: Marquez B+; Casamayor B
Intangibles: One thing which can never be denied about Casamayor is a will to win and a willingness to do anything to win. He’s garnered a reputation as a sometimes dirty fighter for good reason. He is...but in the best sense of the word. He’s dirty the way one imagines Harry Greb might have been if the films were available or even as Bernard Hopkins was in his time. It’s subtle and its effective; al elbow here, a forearm there and an opponent getting pissed enough to make mistakes. Marquez also has a will to win. He’s shown it coming off the floor in both fights with Pacquiao and in doing the same against Barrera. There is though some odd give in both men at times. They have both suffered critical knockdowns and slow starts in bad moments, coming from behind to finish just short instead of just ahead. The element of who will make the crucial mistake, who wants to continue on more, will weigh heavy on this one. That both weathered long years waiting for a chance to be stars favors them. So too do long careers fighting most of the very best. Pre-Fight Grades: Marquez A; Casamayor A
Overall Report Card: Marquez B+; Casamayor B
The Pick: Recognizing the odds and grades favor one man, I’ll still go against the grain on this one. Marquez may be fresher, but Casamayor showed against Katsidis he's not done. He's also naturally larger. This fight could get ugly, but Joel thrives in ugly and is willing to bend rules where Marquez might not. Look for one or both to hit the deck via knockdown or hip toss en route to a nail biter decision for the Cuban Casamayor.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
