By Cliff Rold

For the fifth and final time in March 2008, one of Boxing’s true World championships will be on the line.  In the first four encounters, fans have seen:

1. Probably the Fight of the Year in Israel Vasquez’s Jr. Featherweight defense against former champion Rafael Marquez;
2. The scrappy fourth encounter, and draw, between Flyweight king Daisuke Naito and former champion Pongsaklek Wonjongkam;
3. A memorable 2nd round knockout in David Haye’s Cruiserweight defense against Enzo Maccarinelli; and
4. A thriller last weekend as Manny Pacquiao captured the vacant World Jr. Lightweight crown via narrow spilt decision against Juan Manuel Marquez.

If you’re a Marquez, it’s not the best of times.  For the rest of the fight faithful, it doesn’t get much better.  Will the trends of recent weeks carry over?  If they do, can the 36-year Joel Casamayor (35-3-1, 21 KO) expect to still be the World Lightweight champion when the final bell gives way to the church bell? 

Let’s go to the report card.

Speed: The 1996 Olympic Gold Medalist from Cuba, Casamayor, would have been the easy choice in this category was he three to four years younger.  In his prime, the southpaw Casamayor had quick feet, reflexes and hands to go with his streak of nasty.  When he enters the ring at the Morongo Resort and Casino in Cabazon, CA on Saturday night (HBO 10:05 PM EST/PST), Casamayor may wish he could have a measure of his youth back.  The challenger, Australia’s Michael Katsidis (23-0, 20 KO), 27, is most noted for the specter of violence he brings to his fights.  That violence unfolds at a rapid clip. 

Katsidis has solid speed for a puncher and is able to accelerate in combination.  Against Graham Earl in early 2007, Katsidis wasn’t always able to beat the seemingly faster man to the punch, but when he did he let loose with volleys that prohibited return fire.  Against Czar Amonsot last July, Katsidis’s ability to get his shots home played the role of equalizer as his face amassed grotesque cuts and swellings.  In Casamayor’s two most recent outings, a decision win for the title against Diego Corrales in October 2006 and what should have been a decision loss to Jose Armando Santa Cruz last November, Casamayor showed flashes of his old hand speed but there didn’t seem to be much behind the shots.  All too often lately, if he’s throwing at all, he’s throwing slap flurries off his back foot or while he’s moving away from the action.  The late Corrales was weight drained and flat and Casamayor never really engaged.  Against Santa Cruz, Casamayor often hit more air than anything else and was shaken more than once.  The slick boxer is always assumed to be faster, but in terms of raw athleticism, a different scenario could unfold.  Pre-Fight Grades: Katsidis B+; Casamayor B

Power:  Katsidis can hurt opponents with his left hook (off the jab or as a lead), his straight right or his right uppercut.  He can maul an opponent with an accumulation of shots or get them out of there with one.  Casamayor has scored only three knockouts in his last ten fights.  The catch is in looking at who each man has been fighting.  In Casamayor’s last ten bouts, dating back to January 2003, he has faced the likes of Corrales (thrice), Nate Campbell, and Jose Luis Castillo.  In contrast, Katsidis entered his 14th month as a professional in January 2003.  That doesn’t mean Casamayor was ever a bigger puncher than Katsidis.  It does mean that knockouts are harder to come by as one’s quality of opponents increases.  Casamayor has been down, sometimes hard and sometimes not so much, against the likes of Corrales, Acelino Freitas, Daniel Seda and Santa Cruz.  None could keep him on the deck.  Katsidis’s nine year age advantage could give him a great shot to do so but he must remember to go to the body.  Katsidis can get caught head hunting; he’ll need to be unpredictable to maintain openings against the veteran.  Pre-Fight Grades: Katsidis A; Casamayor B-

Defense: Casamayor at his best had good head movement, could block well, and had the legs to could keep out of harms way.  He was never and isn’t now a Willie Pep or Pernell Whitaker, but piling punishment on Casamayor was never an easy task.  Over time, Casamayor’s defensive tools have grown to include a willingness to grapple and, when inside, foul.  His educated use of shoulders and elbows in a clinch, followed with a flurry and retreat, could come in handy if he looks to frustrate Katsidis’s offense with such tactics.  A frustrated Katsidis could be a sitting duck for Casamayor, old or not.  Against Earl, Katsidis was hurt in both the second and fourth rounds as he pursued the telling knockout blows.  Focused on offense, Katsidis squares up in front of foes and Casamayor has been in enough tough rounds to know how to measure a winning counter shot.  When he’s pacing himself, Katsidis bends at the waist while keeping his hands high and tight, earmuffing his chin and temples while also allowing cover for his ribs.  If he remains patient, he can use that defense to deflect flurries and launch before Casamayor can spin away.  Patience just doesn’t seem his style.  Pre-Fight Grades: Casamayor B; Katsidis C+

Intangibles: Casamayor has earned a measure of enmity amongst the hardcore faithful in recent years.  Too many close decisions in the heart of his career, a long layoff, and a title that should have been departed from him last year have done him no favors.  Still, no one can doubt that Casamayor has always been a fighter through and through.  He’s never stopped trying to win in any bout and, with a history of slow starts, hasn’t had the luxury too.  The rare exception, his failed December 2004 shot at then-Lightweight champion Jose Luis Castillo, saw Casamayor jump out to an early lead and then survive a late-rounds assault that saw him shaking at the effects of the body shots Castillo was landing.  Another man may have fallen but Casamayor left everything he had in the ring to both weather the storm and throw the punches he needed to stay in the fight.  That performance, that spirit, is why Casamayor was such a pleasure to watch for years even with the occasional dirty tactic.  His fighting heart will be met in equal measure this weekend.  Katsidis showed in his war with Amonsot that blood and virtual blindness aren’t what he considers deterrents to victory.  It was the sort of early-career gut check that no one likes to see their developing fighter go through but one that causes a sigh of relief if the fighter passes the test.  Katsidis will have many more tests as he enters this new phase of his career a step above the fare he’s faced so far.  Pre-Fight Grades: Casamayor B+; Katsidis B

Overall Report Card: Casamayor B; Katsidis B

The Pick: The last time anyone saw Casamayor look anywhere close to his formerly sharp form was in a June 2005 draw against Kid Diamond.  That seems like longer ago than it was in the wake of his displays in the third Corrales bout, the dud against Santa Cruz, and even before that.  His last bout may have been excused as the affects of rust after a long layoff if not for the accumulated evidence in the multiple fights prior.  For Casamayor to triumph this weekend, he’ll need one of those turn back the clock moments that some of the great ones have. 

Problem is, I’m not sure Casamayor was ever a great one.  He was certainly very good but on most of his most important days he came up short.  That is not to say he cannot win.  There is much that is not known about Katsidis.  On paper, he’s making a giant leap in quality of competition and question marks remain about his chin.  Earl hurting him, including a second round knockdown that had him almost out on his feet, was a curious sign because Earl is no puncher.  The mistakes he made against Earl, and the bludgeoning Amonsot, were overcome because the foes weren’t equal to the opportunities provided. 

Even if his body is not equal, Casamayor still has the fighting mind to fake it.  Casamayor could prove Katsidis just another exciting puncher who gives better than he takes.

I don’t think that will be the case.  Many a fighter has been hurt on the way up against a man who shouldn’t be able to hurt them but does anyways.  It happens because the piss and vinegar of inexperience sometimes overcomes the innate truth that the right punch can always hurt.  Given a choice, inexperience accompanied by advantages in youth and strength are preferable to experience accompanied by a body that’s seen better days.

This bout is unlikely to live up to either bout featuring the brothers Marquez, or even the hectic twelve of Naito-Wonjongkam IV, but like Haye-Maccarinelli it should give us one hell of a knockout.  Whether he overwhelms him early, or survives some schooling moments from the learned Casamayor first, look for Katsidis to emerge as Boxing’s next action hero, and new World Lightweight champion, this Saturday night on HBO’s Boxing After Dark.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com