By Cliff Rold (photo by Tom Casino/Showtime)

No one has won a big fight until they’ve won a big fight.  Sounds all Yogi Berra right?  It’s still true.  For many fighters, it’s a matter of opportunity more than experience which can delay the path to riches and dreams. 

For years, Carl Froch called for U.K. countryman Joe Calzaghe at 168 lbs.  Calzaghe went calling elsewhere while Froch found, in Jean Pascal last December and Jermain Taylor earlier this year, the proving grounds Froch always though Joe could provide.

Andre Dirrell is in a position similar to where Froch was a year ago in terms of opportunity.  He’s got a nice shiny record, visible talent, and yet awaits the test to prove a complete package.  A 2004 Bronze Medal as a Middleweight Olympian says something about his skill but he’s yet to face the sort of nasty professionalism Froch will bring to scratch.

There’s always a first time.

Let’s go to the report card. 

The Ledgers

Carl Froch
Age: 32
Titles: WBC Super Middleweight (2008-Present, 1 Defense
Height: 6’1
Weight: 167 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 167.1 lbs.
Hails from: Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom
Record: 25-0, 20 KO
Record in Championship Fights: 2-0, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (Robin Reid, Jean Pascal, Jermain Taylor)

Vs.

Andre Dirrell
Age: 27
Title: 1st title fight
Height: 6’2
Weight: 167 ½ lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 167.85 lbs.
Hails from: Flint, Michigan
Record: 18-0, 13 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 0

Pre-Fight Grades
Speed – Froch B; Dirrell A+
Power – Froch B+; Dirrell B-
Defense – Froch C+; Dirrell B
Intangibles – Froch A; Dirrell B

Froch has one major disadvantage in this fight and it will be far more palpable than it was in his last outing.  Jermain Taylor built a lead early by staying a step ahead of the Brit.  Dirrell has the sort of speed to put him two steps ahead at every turn.  Using that speed wisely will be his key to victory.  Dirrell can occasionally get sloppy, winging an eye popping combination and then stepping straight back with his hands down or staying too close, without his jab, for too long.  Froch only has to be fast enough to launch a looping left or right at the right moment to put Dirrell in a bad spot.

And Froch has the pop to do it. 

While few of his knockouts have come in the earliest frames, Froch’s heavy hands have gotten to everyone thus far.  Against decent foes, it gets to them over the first half.  Against Taylor, it took until just shy of the buzzer.  His come from behind win is too often treated like it was sudden.  It was not.  Froch ground Taylor down after coming off the floor in round three.  He hit what was available, whether it was ribs, arms or skull.  Taylor was flashier but Froch was landing what mattered and in the end it paid off. 

Dirrell has more power than his record indicates.  Given his quickness, Dirrell can snap shots off a foe never sees coming, dazing them and allowing for openings to pour in even more.  Because he hasn’t faced anything which could be considered elite yet, there are still question marks but Dirrell knows Froch can be hurt so he’ll be prepared to take advantage if the situation arises.  However, he must be wary of loading up.  Against Victor Oganov for instance, Dirrell was pitching for home runs and missing a lot of the time, turning what could have been a shorter night into a fourth round stop.

Both fighters are defensively vulnerable though Dirrell does not have to be.  His speed of hand and foot is so natural as to make it possible for him to be unhittable in spots.  A lack of discipline causes his problems.  Against Oganov, Mike Paschall, and Anthony Hanshaw, he was caught with shots simply because he appeared to lose focus or get overzealous.  It’s been a career long problem going to back to the bout with Alfonso Rocha in 2006 where he suffered his first knockdown.  The knockdown came near the bell, a little luck in timing.  Hanshaw had him stunned as well but Dirrell weathered.  Those same shots from Froch could be the difference between victory and “…nine, ten.”

Froch has a solid chin and showed solid recuperative ability versus Taylor but one can’t count on their chin as defense.  Dirrell’s sharper and more voluminous punches could bust him up over the course of the fight and certainly make him vulnerable to cuts.  Frcoh is looking to bring the pain so for him offense is going to be defense.  Dirrell likes to shift from southpaw to orthodox and back in fights.  If Froch is slamming shots to the torso in those transitions, Dirrell won’t be able to get set and Froch will have defended himself from the worst possible.

Froch’s ability to win in wars with Taylor and Pascal say a lot about his heart and desire.  When his opportunity finally arrived, he won big and made viewers want to see more.  He’s a gamer.  Something about Dirrell indicates a fighter who toes the water before diving in.  He showed Gold Medal stuff in Athens but tightened up a little in the semi-finals and left with Bronze.  In his first major crack on HBO, he turned in a turkey with Curtis Stevens.  On Saturday, he’ll be before a crowd as hostile as any the sport can produce in Froch’s native Nottingham against a fighter who won’t mind taking two to give one.  Has Dirrell matured enough to seize the big opportunity when it’s in front of him?  

There is also the issue of rounds.  Dirrell has been a pro since January 2005 and yet is only making his nineteenth start.  That’s less than five fights a year with one going ten rounds, another eight, and everything else less.  Froch hasn’t been remarkably active either, but he’s been twelve hard in each of his last two outings and scored knockouts in every round except the tenth.  Is Dirrell ready for a sustained battle?

The Pick

Froch is going to make this a fight at some point on Saturday.  That’s bad for Dirrell, as the fighter noted in speaking to BoxingScene last week .  The former Olympian makes mistakes and they have not shown to be ironed out yet.  With a chin which so far remains questionable, the favor goes to the man with hometown advantage.  Dirrell will win some early rounds but as the seconds tick by Froch will still be there banging at whatever flesh is available.  Dirrell has serious talent but it’s going to take a loss to make him better, to teach him the necessity of focus for three minutes at a time.  Froch will provide that loss…let’s say in round ten.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com