Ahead of the boxing event of the year in Las Vegas, which sees Terence Crawford taking on Canelo Alvarez, jumping two weight classes to challenge for the Mexican’s undisputed mantle at super-middleweight, BoxingScene spoke to three top trainers – Barry Hunter, Buddy McGirt, and Adam Booth – to go over some of the fight’s major tactical talking points.
Crawford is 37, Canelo is 35, who is nearer their prime?
Barry Hunter: Of course you would go with the tire that’s got that bit more tread on it. In this case it would be Crawford. Canelo’s had a lot of fights but he didn’t take a lot of damage during that time. Canelo, when you look at what he’s done, he’s real efficient and he hasn’t sustained a lot of damage, so it’s very different from a fighter that’s that age and been in a lot of wars and took a lot of damage. He’s the opposite.
Buddy McGirt: I think they’re pretty much right at the same point. I think they’re both right at their prime right now. I’m gonna say Canelo might be a little over because he’s been more active. Canelo’s been very active. And when you’re fighting a lot and you’re training a lot, it takes its toll on you.
Adam Booth: I haven’t heard Crawford’s age getting mentioned much. I think at the end of September he turns 38, so he’s the older and the smaller man in the fight. But it’s hard to say who is nearer their prime. If you’re taking all the factors in, you’d probably say they’re both past their physical prime, but then that’s balanced by their experience, their knowhow and their ring IQ. The fact that neither of them are damaged, it’s not like either one of them has taken a beating in their career, even in the competitive fights they’re not taking a lot of stick. You can have a car that’s five years old and it’s got 150,000 miles on the clock, you can have a car that’s 20 years old that’s only done 10,000 miles, so I think there’s a bit of that in play here.
Is Canelo slowing down?
BH: He could be. When you look at Canelo today as opposed to the Canelo that was hungry, that was chasing those titles, chasing the history books, like someone said, it’s hard to get up when you’re laying on silk sheets. Is that hunger still there? Is that desire still there and is that thirst for greatness still there? So those questions still have to be asked. The same thing with Terence, to be honest with you.
BM: I think that Canelo fights to the ability of the guy he’s fighting. I think that some guys he’s carried, he’s said, ‘Fuck it, let me get the 12 rounds in,’ but I think that on a fight like this, this a fight that I think if Canelo wins, he should retire. He has nothing else to prove.
AB: I think Canelo’s much more experienced and he’s become more economical in how he goes about his work. He doesn’t waste a lot. The guys he’s not stopped in his last fights are all seasoned, tough, strong, durable, big campaigners.
How much of a factor will size be?
BH: I really don’t think it will play a real big, key role, because when you look at them face to face, there’s not that much of a difference. Terence, he’s a strong guy, power in his hands. I don’t know if it’s his wrestling background that plays a role in his strength but he’s a physically strong guy as well. I think that Achilles he has is sometimes in the heat of battle he becomes overly aggressive sometimes, which can play in Canelo’s favor. Aggression is cool if it’s controlled aggression. When you’re just going out there reckless making some of the mistakes that I saw in the last fight [against Israil Madrimov], you can’t do that against Canelo.
You look at Terence, through his career, I’ve never seen a fighter that can make adjustments like he can, power in both hands, can fight orthodox, fight southpaw, and his ability to make adjustments on the fly is crazy.
BM: My honest opinion is it depends on how heavy Crawford comes in. If he comes in at ’68, that means by fight night he’ll be 175, 180; can you sustain that and carry that weight for 12 rounds? You’ve gotta remember, he’s coming from ’47 and he had just one fight at ’54. From ’47. You’re going up 20lbs. I believe, if he comes in ’63, ’64, then I give him a shot. Then I’ve gotta go with Crawford. But if he comes in at ’68, that means he’s going to be real heavy on fight night and that’s a lot of weight to be carrying against a guy like Canelo.
AB: We’ve got weight categories for a reason and size always matters. There’s that old adage that a good big ‘un always beats a good little ‘un. You’ve got two great fighters here. Canelo’s been hit by much bigger punchers than Crawford, but Crawford hasn’t been hit by someone that hits as hard as Canelo. That’s the basic equation here, where size may play out, because I think Canelo’s naturally about a stone heavier and that, I think, will be a factor in the fight, if and when clean shots start landing.
Should Crawford set up as southpaw, orthodox or switch hit?
BH: I think Canelo’s past history shows he has problems with people that move and people who are southpaw, so I would definitely go out with that game plan of movement. I’m not saying run away, I’m saying box in the pocket and use your southpaw stance.
BM: I think Crawford is going to come out southpaw. I think he’s better as a southpaw, I just think that Crawford’s going to pull out all the stops and Canelo’s going to have an answer for them. But if he doesn’t have an answer, he’s in trouble.
AB: He [Crawford] will always go from one [stance] to the other and if something doesn’t go his way when he’s orthodox, he instantly goes southpaw and of all the people that switch hit, he looks almost identical in both stances and he’s so proficient in both, but it’s a default thing sometimes where if there’s an orthodox moment he’s not comfortable with, he immediately goes southpaw and pretty much every time that gives him that control, and pretty much every time by switching stance you always see the other guy pause and try to figure it out and he [Crawford] takes advantage of those moments he creates. The thing with this fight, he’s fighting someone who’s as effective against southpaws as he is orthodox, and when Crawford does flip to southpaw, it will be very interesting to see how quickly Canelo tries something.
Neither fighter has been stopped or has come close to being stopped, who does a distance fight suit?
BH: It’s hard to say because they both have certain things about them that they can adapt to go the distance. In Canelo’s case, he does not expend a lot of energy. He uses his discipline. In his fights, his punch count is low, but his connect ratio is pretty high. In Crawford’s case, we won’t know. Can you take that crack, which I think he can. And can he fight someone who has that kind of control as far as pace is concerned?
BM: I’m going to say Crawford, but that depends on the weight. If he’s under 64/65, cool. But if he’s 168, that could be a problem.
AB: They’re both hugely experienced 12-round fighters. And they know how to navigate through 12 rounds in a competitive fight, so I don’t necessarily think it’s about the distance being the problem. It will be about the moments. Neither of them are easy to catch. Canelo is deceptively difficult to catch. One thing Canelo nearly always does, he almost always manages to find a clean shot, and it will be the first time he lands on Crawford with something significant. How that is dealt with by Crawford I think is a big factor.
Canelo has not been badly hurt, can Crawford do it?
BH: I definitely think, in fact I know, that Canelo isn’t taking this man lightly. It only takes a few pounds of pressure to put anybody out or put them down. This is boxing. All it takes is that one good punch to beat anybody; definitely it’s possible.
BM: That’s interesting, but I think Canelo’s a little too slick for that.
AB: If there was an oddsmaker giving me odds to put money down on that not happening, then I think that would be as safe a bet as you could have in boxing, that Canelo’s not going to touch the canvas. If that happened, that would probably be the most surprising thing in this match-up.
What can we take from their most recent fights against William Scull and Israil Madrimov?
BH: As far as Canelo is concerned, I don’t think you really can. You know that old saying about styles making fights? You can fight one guy and he can give you all the problems in the world and that same person that you fought all of a sudden that next guy goes in and has an easier time with but you can turn around and whoop this guy. I just think in Terence Crawford’s case, he can’t make the same mistakes that he made in his last fight. And I don’t think he will because the threat ratio is higher.
BM: I just think that Crawford wasn’t really up for Madrimov like he was for [Errol] Spence. Certain guys, you try to rise to the occasion, but sometimes you’re just not there. And I think for Madrimov, I don’t think it was really there for Bud. I think a fight like this is going to bring out the best in these guys.
AB: I think it’s a blank slate for Saturday. The scoring of Crawford-Madrimov was relatively close, a couple of points, three points, it was a competitive fight and Madrimov’s a good fighter. But Madrimov isn’t Canelo.
Scull is a big super-middleweight who didn’t want to engage and Canelo completely lost interest in that, so I think you can comfortably push those fights to the side because, for both of them, this is something special and I do see them both raising their game and giving us a very tense affair.
How does the fight shake out?
BH: I think it’s going to start of strategic, and I think at some point it’s going to end up being a war. I’m going to go with what most people would call the upset, with Terence boxing, but he cannot make a mistake against Canelo Alvarez.
BM: I think it’s going to start as a chess match, and after three or four rounds it’s going to start heating up. In the beginning, both are gonna have respect for each other and see what traps they can set. But I’m leaning toward Crawford. Crawford’s very slick, he’s going to give Canelo different looks and Canelo’s got a very good IQ. That’s why I think it starts off early as a chess match.
AB: They’re both winners. They both have that mentality that they’d want to dominate the other fella. In that sense, mentally they match up. You can’t imagine Canelo hiding from Crawford and it’s hard to see Crawford running round and staying away from Canelo. They’re both winners. And they’re both going to be looking to dominate all the moments in the fight. I can make an argument for both of them, because of Crawford’s boxing IQ, skillset, style and mentality. His mentality has been so much more dominant than his opponents’ throughout his career. But in this fight, neither of them are going to out-psyche the other one. They’re going to have to earn the other guy’s respect and they’re going to have earn whatever success they have in the fight. I just see Canelo landing, and I can see that his power getting more respect from Crawford than the other way round. They’re both gonna land on each other, but it goes back to that thing that size does matter and you’ve got a great pressure fighter who can find gaps under-fire, who’s a heavy-hitter, as durable as they come, slick, strong and naturally bigger, so it comes back to that. When you take into account all of their skillsets, that may well be the element that’s the deciding factor.
