By Cliff Rold
Maybe Liam Smith will prove to be a tough test for Saul Alvarez in the Mexican star’s official return to the 154 lb. weight class.
Maybe we look back on 2016 as a year where Alvarez essentially went on a competitive vacation. He wouldn’t be the first star who did. He’s being moved as the heir to his promoter Oscar De La Hoya. Even Oscar, always lauded for taking tough outs, took what was a relative vacation for five fights between Pernell Whitaker and Ike Quartey.
Looking at the record of Liam Smith, it’s a blank slate as to what kind of fight we’re really getting here. Smith looks capable enough but this is his first brush with real top ten talent around his weight class.
It doesn’t matter to the paying public much.
Alvarez is going to draw the biggest crowd in the US this year and if he does pay-per-view sales in the range of his fights with Erislandy Lara and Alfredo Angulo, the promotion will be a success. Just like we saw in the Gennady Golovkin-Kell Brook fight last week, stars excite. The perception of a possible mismatch is only as important as the customers who won’t indulge it.
After a week where we’ve seen gems like Robert Easter-Richard Commey, Roman Gonzalez-Carlos Cuadras, Shinsuke Yamanaka-Anselmo Moreno, and get a potential afternoon thriller on Saturday between Krzysztof Glowacki and Oleksandr Usyk, this fight is happening too.
Maybe it will be good. No one really knows.
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledger
Saul Alvarez
Age: 26
Title: Lineal/TBRB/Ring World Middleweight (2015-Present, 1 Defense); Title not at stake
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); WBA/Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’9
Weight: 154 lbs.
Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 47-1-1, 33 KO?
Record in Major Title Fights: 9-1, 5 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 10 (Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6)
Vs.
Liam Smith
Age: 28
Title: WBO Super Welterweight (2015-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’9 ½
Weight: 154 lbs.
Hails from: Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom
Record: 23-0-1, 13 KO?
Record in Major Title Fights: 3-0, 3 KO
Rankings: #7 (Boxing Scene), #8 (TBRB, ESPN, Ring), #9 (Boxing Monthly)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 0
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Alvarez B; Smith B
Pre-Fight: Power – Alvarez B+; Smith B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Alvarez B-; Smith B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Alvarez A-; Smith B+
Smith’s professional ledger may be light on top tier foes but he has some fighting pedigree. He comes from a family of fighters and his ring efforts to date show the grooming. Smith has a responsible high guard and works well with both hands. He’s got a decent jab and goes hard to the body.
Of interest in this fight, he throws an educated uppercut at close range. It could be a weapon against Alvarez. Since entering the title picture, he’s added to his knockout ratio and has been on a roll in that regard generally. After winning a lot of decisions in his first sixteen fights, Smith has scored eight straight stoppages.
Against who? Well, that’s the issue for skeptics.
The who is easy to identify for Alvarez. While there is a vocal element giving him the business for delaying a showdown with Gennady Golovkin, Alvarez has actually been matched harder than almost anyone in the top tier of boxing in the last few years. Austin Trout, Floyd Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, and Miguel Cotto were his foes in four of his last seven.
It explains in part how he’s been able to grow his star and also why some are disappointed that he’d pull the reins back now. In returning to 154, he at least is facing someone widely regarded as top ten in the class and with a belt in tow. Smith is the least regarded of the beltholders but he’s also not affiliated with the same Al Haymon that De La Hoya’s promotional company is in litigation with.
That last bit explains how we’re here. If Alvarez was going to give up the WBC (if not the lineal) middleweight crown and step down for at least a fight, Smith was really the only logical opponent he was going to face at 154 if they wanted a belt on the line.
For Smith, that means his ship has come in. While Alvarez was never in any danger of losing to Amir Khan from the moment that fight was signed, there were things in that fight that Smith could pick up on. Khan had success getting to Alvarez. Smith doesn’t have the same kind of speed, but he does work in combination. Alvarez has decent head movement but he’s never been hard to find.
Will the machinations to stay around Jr. middleweight catch up in this fight? Even with rehydration, Alvarez is lower on the scale then he’s been since Mayweather. He certainly fills out like a guy who would do his body a favor if he’d just embrace his middleweight frame. Smith’s effectiveness to the body could make this a fight if he can take Alvarez’s power.
That’s a big question mark in the fight. Alvarez isn’t an other-worldly puncher; the highlight reel knockout of Khan just proved that he was facing Khan. He can definitely crack though. Smith has good size but we’ll know more about what he can take when a couple big rights and lefts land.
Even if Smith can make a go of it, he’s fighting in Texas in front of a pro-Canelo crowd. It’s fair to ask how much of a chance he has to win a decision even if he turns out to be the goods.
The Pick
This might sneak up and be a fan friendly affair but there just isn’t any reason to believe Smith can win. He might have a belt, but he’s just the opponent until he proves otherwise. Smith has a golden opportunity to make believers of the world. He will at the very least give it a hell of a try. It probably won’t be enough. The pick is Alvarez by decision.
Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 33-11
Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
