By Peter Lim
To simply categorize this fight as a skills-versus-power matchup would be an overgeneralization. Granted, Alvarez has the edge in skills and Golovkin in power. But Canelo is no slouch in the power department and Triple G's Olympic gold medal and the fact that he might have lost a mere 10 rounds in his previous 17 title defenses is testament to his ring IQ.
Here are some ways the fighters' assets and liabilities will measure up against each other:
Style: Canelo is the more versatile and busier of the two. Rattling off four- and five-punch combinations comes almost second nature to him while Triple G tends to be limited to two- to three-punch sequences. Both fighters are equally proficient with either hand and can land with deadly impact from any conceivable angle. Canelo's footwork is slicker and bouncier but, again, to label this as a fleet-footed versus a flat-footed fighter will be a gross overgeneralization; Triple G has proven the ability to cut off the ring against just about everyone that's been put in front of him, and Canelo tends to plant his feet and trade more than he has to.
Power: Canelo is a natural 154-pounder who hits like a middleweight; Triple G is a natural 160-pounder who hits like a light heavyweight. Enough said.
Speed: Canelo might have superior hand and foot velocity but Triple G has an uncanny ability to nullify his opponent's speed advantage by strategically angling and positioning himself to land first, especially with the jab but sometimes even with lead power shots. If Canelo utilized his speed from a defensive mindset, he could frustrate Triple G in a tactical chess match but, at his core, an action fighter and will refuse to engage in any kind of snooze fest.
Defense: For both fighters, offense is their best defense. Neither fighter is a Mayweather or Whitaker; they can both be hit fairly easily. The difference is Canelo is a counter puncher and Triple G is not. When Canelo gets nailed, his instinct is to punch back with a vengeance. Triple G, on the other hand, doesn't return fire instantaneously. Instead, he tends to dip and tuck before resetting after absorbing even inconsequential punches.
Punch resistance: Neither fighter has been down nor seriously hurt, but Canelo's whiskers has withstood tougher tests than Triple G's. Early in his career, Canelo was almost decapitated by a direct, perfectly-timed left hook from Jose Miguel Cotto but displayed poise and maturity beyond his years to recover, regroup and stop the lesser-known Cotto brother. James Kirkland rocked Canelo with an early two-fisted assault in 2015, but again he maintained sufficient wherewithal to weather the storm and brutally dispose of Kirkland.
Triple G, on the other hand, passed his most significant chin check against the vicious onslaught of Kell Brook. But while Brook hits hard for a welterweight, he was fighting a full 13 pounds above his weight division. When Triple G faced a full-fledged, hard-punching middleweight, Danny Jacobs elected to box tactically rather than throw bombs away.
While both fighters are murderous body punchers, neither has really tasted their own medicine to the torso.
Level of opposition: Here again, Canelo has the edge, but the gap might be narrowed given Triple G's stellar amateur career. Both have taken on lefties and righties with a diaspora of styles, but Canelo has faces the more elite and difficult opponents. The knock on Triple G is that many of his opponents were coming up in weight to fight him, but the same can be said of Canelo.
Can Canelo be first to the draw consistently enough to avoid Triple G’s fight-changing or fight-ending bombs for the entirety of the fight? Will Canelo’s sustained attacks to the head and body bounce harmlessly off Triple G or will it take a gradual toll as the fight progresses? Can Triple G land cleanly and often enough to hurt Canelo, and if he does can Canelo make the right adjustments?
See prediction at: http://peterliminator.blogspot.com/2017/09/gennady-golovkin-vs-saul-canelo-alvarez.html