Canelo Alvarez-Amir Khan: Pre-Fight Report Card

by Cliff Rold

Are the optimist’s right?

Is tomorrow night just one of those quirky occasions in boxing where a couple name commodities that no one was thinking about matching up pleasantly surprise us? The announcement was largely met that way. From its initial announcement, a significant portion of the press has defended Saturday’s battle for the historical middleweight crown as consolidated by the great Bernard Hopkins.

We’ve seen comparisons to multiple past occasions of smaller men rising in weight to do great things. Roberto Duran gave a spirited challenge to Marvin Hagler…Henry Armstrong almost knocked off Ceferino Garcia…Ray Leonard came off the bench to upset Hagler.

And, hey, Saul Alvarez is no Hagler. Garcia probably beats him pretty good too.

Maybe there will be some magic in the air in Las Vegas.

Or, maybe, just maybe, the coverage of this fight is a heavy dose of journalistic malpractice. A fight that might have deserved a loud round of catcalls, considering its healthy price tag, didn’t get them. Alvarez may not be Hagler but Amir Khan is no Leonard, Duran, or Armstrong. He’s not even Marlon Starling taking a shot at Michael Nunn.

The simple answer for cynics is that Alvarez is ‘too big’ for Khan. That’s not the real issue. He’s tall enough for Alvarez and made the weight no problem. He’s certainly faster. Khan was always big for the lighter weight classes he’s competed in and appropriately sized as a welterweight the last four years. He’s small for a middleweight, but that’s only a bigger issue now because of same-day weigh-ins.

No, the cynics have plenty to look at beyond size. Khan has style and athletic upside that would make him a tough out for a lot of fighters at welterweight. It says here he would have been an intriguing opponent for an aged Floyd Mayweather. He’s outboxed more than his share of quality pros and stopped his fair share.

Khan’s issue has always been fighters who can get physical with him…

…or touch those whiskers of his. Khan’s chin has been an issue for most of his career. Since relatively feather fisted Willie Limond had Khan nearly out at Jr. lightweight, fans have been treated to a high wire act. For many years, as Khan took on a series of serious outs at Jr. welterweight, it was hard not to respect him. He found a way to survive hell with Marcos Maidana and kept his feet when lilting against Lamont Peterson.

All the way through the Danny Garcia detonation, it could be thrilling stuff.

He always had his liabilities but he was game for the task. This Saturday he is again, but that’s only after four very careful years. One can give him kudos for the risk taking here while still recognizing how transactional it all looks. Since being stopped by Garcia, Khan has been highly inactive, pining for big fights with big names and doing as little as possible to put himself at any real risk. He got through a scare against a shopworn Julio Diaz in 2013 and the biggest puncher he’s faced since is Luis Collazo.

His two best wins at welterweight have been against guys who aren’t know for thundering fists (Devon Alexander and former Jr. welterweight titlist Chris Algieri). He’s shown very little knockout flair among the welterweights.

That’s been enough to see him recognized largely among the top five welterweights in the world and get a middleweight title shot.

For the cynics, there is a sad lesson in this fight. Instead of kicking a bunch of ass en route to a major pay-per-view showdown, Khan took a different tact. Khan went from a daring titlist at 140 to a guy who kept his name in the headlines and body mostly out of harm’s way (five fights in four years) until a bigger name needed a perceived beatable opponent people had heard of.

It ain’t the first time and won’t be the last. It doesn’t make it a happy reminder.

Are cynics wrong here? Can Khan prove the optimist’s right? Is it worth approximately seventy of a fight fan’s dollars to find out?

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez
Age: 25
Title: Lineal/TBRB/Ring/WBC World Middleweight (2015-Present, 1st Attempted Defense)
Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); WBA/Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013)
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155 lbs.
Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico
Record: 46-1-1, 32 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 8-1, 4 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 9 (Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12)

Vs.

Amir Khan
Age: 29
Title: None
Previous Titles: WBA Super Lightweight (2009-12, 5 Defenses); IBF Super Lightweight (2011)
Height: 5’8 ½
Weight: 155 lbs.
Hails from: Bolton, Lancashire, United Kingdom
Record: 31-3, 19 KO, 2 KOBY
Rankings: All at 147 lbs. - #2 (Ring), #3 (TBRB), #4 (BoxingScene, BoxRec), #5 (ESPN) Record in Title Fights: 6-2, 3 KO, 1 KOBY
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 11 (Gairy St. Clair UD12; Marco Antonio Barrera Tech. Dec. 5; Andriy Kotelnik UD12; Paulie Malignaggi TKO11; Marcos Maidana UD12; Zab Judah KO5; Lamont Peterson L12; Danny Garcia TKO4; Julio Diaz UD12; Luis Collazo UD12; Devon Alexander UD12; Chris Algieri UD12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Alvarez B; Khan A
Pre-Fight: Power – Alvarez B+; Khan B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Alvarez B-; Khan B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Alvarez A-; Khan B+

How can Khan win this fight? The easy answer is in his speed. Even with extra weight, he should have a clear advantage there. He’s improved, but still not perfected, varying that speed so he isn’t throwing the same fastball every time but he hasn’t had to worry as much about incoming fire in recent years either.

Khan moves and holds more under trainer Virgil Hunter. We’ve seen Alvarez look ordinary against moving targets in the past. If Khan can pot shot, hold, spin, and move all night, he could befuddle Alvarez. He might not be able to hurt him, but there could be some drama if he gets off to a good start playing keep away.

How is he realistically going to do that for twelve rounds? What does he have to keep Alvarez from ultimately just imposing on him and walking him down?

It’s the same tightrope he’s walked for years so it’s nothing new. The opponent is.

Alvarez is a bit overrated as a puncher. He has heavy hands but he’s never stopped an upper tier foe his size and he rarely has them on the floor outside a jarring shot against Austin Trout. Miguel Cotto has had his chin dented by several men in his career. Alvarez hit him plenty and wasn’t one of them. The champion has heavy feet and while his jab is stiff, it can also be predictable.

Alvarez could use Khan’s speed against him without worrying about the chase. Alvarez is an underrated counter puncher who moves his head well. If he can time a pot-shotting Khan coming in, he can let the challenger do the work for him. If and when Khan ties him up, Alvarez has to use his body to wear at a Khan who will be lighter in the ring (if not on official scales). Digging to the body any time Khan is close, or in the clinch, is a must.

The Pick

If the undercard is appealing to anyone reading, this could be a solid night at the fights. The Gomez-Herrera fight could be particularly interesting. If one is forking over the extra cash specifically for the main event on top of what they already pay for an outlet like HBO, there are few pay-per-view headliners that scream wait for the ‘free’ replay more than this one.

Sure, this isn’t the worst pay card ever nor is it the worst major star showcase. Oscar De La Hoya, who promotes this one, once got a significant audience to pay to see him beat up a year’s gone Yori Boy Campas. This isn’t that bad. That doesn’t make it good. Take away the name value of Khan and look in a vacuum at what he’s done the last four years. Then add on that he’s moving up to challenge, albeit at a catchweight, for the middleweight crown.

$70 for this? Really? This has the feel of a fight a lot of people will pay for pretending they didn’t know what was coming and then complain after if the conventional wisdom plays out.

As a matchup, it isn’t as paltry as Gennady Golovkin-Dominic Wade. That was a mis-mandatory up there with some of the worst HBO has ever tolerated on their air. This just happens to also cost about three times a monthly HBO subscription.

With due diligence, this report card looked at how Khan can win. The bottom line: it’s a highly improbable scenario. Golden Boy isn’t risking their cash cow for the moment and they won’t until a showdown with Golovkin is ready either this fall or next year at this time. There would be some great irony, and humor, if Alvarez wakes up Sunday morning having gone from saying whom Golovkin should be fighting to wondering how he lost his title to a chinny former Jr. welterweight titlist four years removed from the title scene.

That’s not how this is likely to go down. It would be nice to be one of the optimist’s, to be wrong about the real quality of this match, but this author wouldn’t be honest if he tried to play the part going in. 

If Alvarez doesn’t catch Khan early and whack him out, he might lose some rounds before he catches up later in the fight and whacks him out. Regardless, Alvarez wins.

But everyone already knows that.       

Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 16-7

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com