By Rick Reeno
The first major rematch of 2006 will land before a packed crowd in the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Former champions Fernando “El Feroz” Vargas (26-3, 22Kos) and “Sugar” Shane Mosley (42-4, 36KOs) will once again collide in what many are still calling a crossroads fight.
The first fight, which took place on February 25, ended with its share of controversy. The bout was very close in terms of the judges’ scorecards and the action in the ring. After the end of the first round, Vargas’s left eye began to swell at a rapid pace. How or why the eye began to swell so quickly is still a mystery. Vargas claims that the injury to his eye was caused by a Mosley headbutt. While Vargas is sticking to his story, Mosley insists that the injury was sustained as a result of one of his punches.
"I'm thrilled to be fighting Fernando Vargas and once again proving that I'm the superior fighter," said Mosley. "To me, there was no controversy about our first fight because one look at his face showed who the winner was. I stopped him once, and I'll do it again."
Regardless of who is right and who is wrong with respect to how the injury occurred, the referee ruled that the injury came from a punch. As Vargas appeared to be coming on strong in the late rounds, his eye swelled up like a ripe melon and was completely closed shut. Fearing that Vargas was no longer able to defend himself from the incoming punched of Mosley, the referee stopped the fight in the tenth round and in the process gave Mosley a technical knockout win.
"I was winning the fight with one eye. If I was him and I would've seen me, I would've gone for broke," said Vargas. "But he didn't because he felt the wrath of what I carry in my right and left hands. A very few minor adjustments and I will knock him out this time. He knows I was winning. The world knows I was winning. I was winning with one eye”
The staff of BoxingScene comes together to voice their predictions, opinions and strategies for the big fight.
Hank Kaplan – I think Mosley is going to win again. I just feel he is the better athlete and has more talent. Both of them are past their prime, but I think Mosley has more left in his tank. I don’t think Shane will stop him in this one and is probably going to box his way to a decision.
Ron Borges - Vargas by hard fought decision, same way the first fight would have ended if referee Joe Cortez didn't get a queasy stomach.
TK Stewart - Simply put, I don't think Shane Mosley can fight a better fight than he did the last time. On the other hand, I believe Fernando Vargas can fight a better fight than he did the last time. The factor that swung their first fight was of course the swelling of Vargas' left eye. As it was, Fernando fought an effective fight, a fight that he was in, with only one eye open. I think the re-introduction of Jack Mosley is going to hurt Shane's chances, especially if there are problems.
I like Vargas in this one by decision.
Brent Matteo Alderson - I really believe that Vargas is going to win this fight. Unlike most people I feel that his swollen eye was just a freak occurrence that affected the outcome of the bout. This time Fernando wins a close decision in an entertaining scrap and Sugar Shane looks good enough in a losing effort against a much bigger opponent to justify a match with Floyd Mayweather. The only thing I'm worried about is whether or not Fernando can still be strong at 154 since he has been talking so much about the trouble he's having making the weight.
At the end of the day you know Lou DiBella and Jermaine Taylor are probably salivating over the chance to face Fernando. Really besides a rematch with Winky what other big money fights are out there for Taylor? A Vargas fight would do a lot for Taylor's career because it would be lucrative and it would help increase Taylor's marketability because he would probably take part in and win an exciting fight since Vargas always goes out on his shield with the guns blazing. In a way Fernando is like a poor man's Tommy Hearns since he usually loses the big ones after pushing more distinguished fighters to the brink.
Evan Korn - In a battle of spent forces, Mosley has a little more left in the tank than Vargas, who never recovered from the beating he took at the hands of Felix Trinidad. Mosley will probably never be the "Sugar Shane" of old, but that does not mean the older, slower Mosley can not defeat Vargas again. Mosley knows another win sets the stage for potential mega-fights with the likes of Antonio Margarito, Floyd Mayweather, or maybe even the Quartey-Forrest winner.
Mosley prevails via unanimous decision.
Dr. Peter Edwards – Vargas will get his revenge when he pounds out a tough TKO win within ten rounds of action.
Richard McManus - I see this fight going much like their last meeting. It will be Mosley's speed and combinations vs. Fernando's toughness and will. Mosley will probably out-work and might possibly break down a game, but shopworn Vargas.
Mosley by decision.
Carlos Irusta - Mosley will win; he's the clever boxer and has the tools to go over in the rematch. Generally, the fighter with more movement and boxing skill has more of a chance to win in a rematch than other types of fighters.
Ronnie Nathanielsz - Although Vargas is a fighter who doesn’t back off and does have some power besides his guts, Mosley has far too much ring savvy for the ferocious one to handle. I expect Mosley to out-box and frustrate Vargas into taking unnecessary risks and paying the price in the end. Should be a good one.
Andy Rivera - I'm going to go with El Feroz, I think that the key will be him going right back to training rather then him focusing on his weight. He did not have to drop 40 pounds to get to 154 to make this fight. I also think he realized that Mosley's punches can't hurt him, other than him having the swollen eye or should I say other head growing from his head.
Vargas should be right on top of Mosley in every round. Mosley has his father back in his camp and I don't really think that will be an issue or make a difference or else he would have never been excused from camp to begin with. Mosley will have the edge in hand speed, but I think Vargas will over come that and win a unanimous decision and even up the score.
Mike Casey - Any battle between two men hanging on by their fingertips is always intriguing, but I really can't see this fight taking a different course from their first encounter. As major league players, Mosley is going and Vargas has almost gone. I thought Shane was one of the greatest all round fighters I have ever seen around the time of the first De La Hoya fight in 2000. But the shattering defeats to Vernon Forrest seemed to have a huge and permanent effect on Mosley's confidence. He is still a smart cookie, and the old flashes of brilliance are still evident in spurts. But I find it hard to believe how he faded away so fast.
Vargas is exciting, brave and dangerous when he's on a roll, but I believe he has gone as far as he can. Mosley could possibly stop him late again, but I'll take Shane to fox his way to a points win.
Mosley by unanimous decision.
Kevin Kincade - The only difference I see in Round 2 is that it will go the distance. Vargas has shown an incredible propensity for losing the big one. That’s not to say Fernando isn’t a talented boxer; but his record speaks for itself. Against Trinidad, he put on a courageous show; but in the end was stopped in the 12th. Against De La Hoya, he showed his strength and determination to back up all the words he’d hurled at Oscar; but, in the end, couldn’t put his money where his mouth was and “The Golden Boy” promptly shut it in the 11th. Against Mosley the last time, as always, Fernando showed determination and heart and kept it competitive before his grotesquely swollen eye caused the bout to be stopped in the 10th. While, logically, that means Mosley should stop Fernando in the 9th this time, I won’t take it that far. There’s also the argument that sooner or later a man’s ship has to come in; but I think sooner left town when it comes to Vargas.
From a historical standpoint, Fernando never had a chance to rematch any of his losses before now and Mosley has had mixed results with his. Against Forrest, he closed the gap; but still fell short, against Wright, same thing. However, both of those were rematches to losses. This is a rematch of a win for Shane, which makes one think of the infamous De La Hoya rematch, which many think Mosley lost. However, to paraphrase a politician from a presidential election many moons ago, I’ve seen Oscar De La Hoya and Fernando Vargas is no Oscar De La Hoya.
This fight, as all of Fernando’s big matches, should be exciting and keep people on the edge of their seats; but, once again, he’s going to have trouble with Shane’s hand speed and mobility. Fernando is fighting too small for his frame and has been for quite some time in my opinion. Mosley is also a division out of sorts; he should be at 147, so don’t expect him to really hurt Vargas this time either. The last fight was close; and this one will be closer, going to the scorecards. Still, Sugar’s going to come out smelling sweeter than El Feroz.
Mosley by split-decision.
Tom Donelson - In their last fight, Mosley’s hand speed proved decisive. Vargas’ eye swelled as a result of a sustained barrage of Mosley’s left jab. Mosley did not have the power to knock Vargas out with one shot and his punches in their last fight did not appear to have the same impact. Both men have seen skills erode but Vargas’ skills have eroded more quickly and this has taken place despite the fact that he is the younger fighter.
Vargas’ chances to win will come if he is aggressive early in the fight. He must impose his strength and this won't be easy since he will be facing Mosley’s superior hand speed. If Mosley boxed like he did in their last match, he will win in a close decision.
Mosley in a close decision, but the operative word is close.
Alphonso Costello - The rematch should pick up where the first fight ended, minus Fernando Vargas' transformation into the "Hunchback of Notre Dame." His Quasimodo-like swollen eye prevented him from completing and subsequently winning the fight. Vargas should look to overcome his lack of speed by effectively using an aggressive power punching attack. "El Feroz" should use his size and power advantage to bully Shane Mosley against the ropes. "Sugar" Shane needs to stay in the middle of the ring and break down Vargas' fragile body.
"Ferocious" Fernando Vargas defeats Shane Mosley by split decision.
Sammy Rozenberg – I’m on the few who are not excited about this fight. I didn’t think the first fight was good enough to justify a second pay-per-view, but money talks in the boxing business. I think Fernando will be better the second time around.
I’m picking Vargas by split-decision.
Ron Gallegos - Though I really like both fighters, Sugar Shane, who is always the soft spoken gentleman and Fernando, who is street wise and street tough in the mold of Manos de Piedras, Roberto Duran. I don't find this fight too hard to predict. Both fighters have seen their glory years, but this should be a good payday. They should not mistake a win as a stepping stone to a title shot in the future. Take this fight for what it is, it will be a war. There is a lot of pride involved with both fighters and both may recognize this as a last stop in the ring wars, if not for the winner, certainly for the loser.
The real winner will be the fans who will witness this battle. There is no pretense or posturing on the part of either fighter. They've both come to do battle and battle they will. Both fighters deserve a tip of the hat for a job well done. I see Sugar coming away with another victory via the TKO in about the 7th
Bradley Yeh - A win for Mosley, I believe, will depend on his sensible use of energy in the early rounds to facilitate the movement, offence, and defense that will be required to convincingly dominate the latter rounds when Vargas feels the fight has limited Mosley’s potential the most and decides to walk him down.
Mosley must keep the lead in each of the earlier rounds (assuming he obtains it, as was the case previously) and be economical with his energy expenditures, rather than demonstrating his technical advantages for almost all of the early rounds, where it is most likely he can (as was the case previously). Mosley can keep the lead and do this, as he has already shown that he can. I believe Mosley will learn more from the 1st fight about Vargas that can be used to advantage in this 2nd fight, than is the case for Vargas.
Vargas needs to remove from his public persona the watered down “Mayorga approach” to fights - that way there is less pressure on himself. That animated strategy has not worked for him for a very long time now – and it won't work against the fighters Vargas seeks to share a canvass footing with, as they're not intimidated by talk. Time for a new approach if you're not happy with the same results. Concentrate only on boxing and listen only to real results. Vargas will get all the pressure he needs from Mosley in the ring, so there's no need to place himself under un-necessary pressure at the podium before fights. Vargas has a marvelous repertoire of punches to deal with a wide variety of boxers. I'm just not sure he can use those punches in the way needed at this stage of his career, at this level of competition and with his ego being at such odds with it’s results in the premier league.
Mosley has also peaked and he is slightly less capable than before, as is Vargas. These things happen in a sport that defines your limits so early and visibly. In my opinion, Mosley’s a better all round fighter at this stage of both their careers. As a result, Mosley has more skill-options to create fall-back plans called “B” than Vargas does. This matters. For example; Vargas simply can’t retract from a trade-war even if it’s not working, and that lack of control is a concern at this stage of his career with so much still to prove. I believe this problem has its origins in what Vargas publicly says and does before a fight, hence my comparisons to Mayorga in that respect. There is more than enough proof that that attitude has not always delivered results for Vargas.
Vargas will try to do to Mosley exactly as he did in the first fight, I don’t believe there's another way for him with such a speed differential between him and Shane, and that’s without considering the previous loss to the same opponent Vargas has to deal with.
With that in mind, in my opinion the early rounds are too hard for Vargas to capture while Mosley is fresh. Vargas simply isn’t fast enough to catch Mosley early and seriously hurt him as he did with Trinidad, and it’s too risky to try. Mosley also has a good chin as well, which may not be the case with Vargas. This leaves the latter rounds for Vargas to attempt the imposition of physical strength, again. That relies on Mosley being tired. Mosley and his father know this, and it means stamina adjustments for Mosley, which is well within his capability. Mosley does not really need to change skill or strategy, whereas Vargas may need to. Can Vargas do that? I hope so, but I don’t think so.
I'm a big fan of both fighters. I have enormous admiration for, who and how Vargas fought when at such an early age of his career. Vargas did not avoid anyone as he rose through the ranks in those early days as many great fighters do and that was very refreshing. As was Mosley’s destructive rampage through the lightweight divisions, punctuated with his jump from the lightweight divisions – across and up - right into Oscars’ golden playpen, where Mosley showed De La Hoya not to be too complacent there as he dominated in their first fight.
The difference, for me, in this evaluation though is not in Mosley and Vargas’ successes, it’s in their losses and the different ways they have both lost and what they have learned from it. I see Mosley benefiting from, his sensible exercise of economical energy expenditure in the early rounds, and, the fact that Vargas’ won't considerably change his game plan from the 1st fight.
Mosley takes early rounds with speed, movement and skill. Vargas starts to walk Mosley down in the latter rounds and intimidate him when Mosley’s power has decreased. Mosley adjusts and Vargas has more success than he did in the early rounds but not enough to upset the balance Mosley has earned. For the most part, Mosley keeps Vargas at bay in the latter rounds after suffering a few power shots from Vargas’ late rallies.
Mosley by decision.
Dan Creighton - Vargas by an 8th round KO.
Eric Rineer - This is a tough, tough fight to pick. I liked Shane Mosley in the first fight and he came out with the "W." But Fernando has got a lot of heart and it's do-or-die for the Ferocious one. I still believe that Sugar Shane is a better fighter than Ferocious, but I'm expecting an all-out-war to break out. I think Sugar Shane gets dropped in this fight but still ekes out enough rounds to even the scorecards.
I'm going with a draw in the sequel.
Richie Maldonado - I would say that Vargas has gone back to school and learned from the mistakes he made the first time. I look for Vargas to be more sharper than last time, put more pressure on Mosley and eventually come up with the win.
Jim Cawkwell - I think it's obvious that what we see of both Fernando Vargas and Shane Mosley today are but weary and worn versions of their formerly vibrant selves. It could be said that Mosley was fortunate that Vargas, who was coming into his own at the time, ended up being stopped due to a freakish eye injury. This rematch gives us the chance to gauge whether things might have ended differently had Vargas not fell foul of such misfortune.
More significantly, the rematch gives the two fighters a chance to earn money that will aid them in retirements that should be impending for them in the next couple of years. It is my belief that the 400,000 pay-per-view buys that their initial clash gathered was beyond anyone's estimation, and that the immediate rematch makes financial sense if a similar buyrate can be achieved; whether it can is quite another matter.
Mosley and Vargas will always have their die-hard followers and the promise of support from their California localities, plus the inherent fire that such a territorial rivalry affords. However, try as I might to build this fight up, I always tend to think of it as rather inconsequential. The winner will not be considered the best fighter in the division; rather they are fighting in part to be considered for another multi-million dollar fight with Floyd Mayweather, Jr. who is to Antonio Margarito what Muhammad Ali was to the Vietnam draft.
Under Danny Smith, Vargas is a fighter caught in conflicting approaches and further burdened by the wars he's indulged in through the years. Mosley has only the obstacle of advancing age to overcome. Though Vargas' inner fire might burn a little stronger for redemption here, Mosley did enough the first time, and may have learned a trick or two from that first time to carry him home via the twelve round unanimous decision route.
James Blears - Fernando’s mobility has been impaired by his back trouble and weight problems. Shane should pierce his defenses more easily, and this will bring things to a close within half a dozen rounds. Fernando career blazed across the horizon too early. He was a prodigy comet, but has almost burned out like a Roman Candle.
Sugar Shane will do better this time and Stop Fernando earlier.
Mike Indri - No dramatic eye swelling this time, but Sugar Shane still has what it takes to out-speed and out-box the always courageous Vargas who, to his credit, also proved he still had a lot of fight left in him.
Both world class boxers appear in top condition, again, which will make for a highly entertaining fight. In the end speed will prevail, as Mosley will beat Vargas to the punch and will silence any talk about who the better fighter is, with another late round stoppage.
Mosley over Vargas via TKO.
Larry Tornambe - I can't imagine much has changed between these two because they haven't fought since their first encounter.
Same ending: Mosley wins.
George Phillips - The fight will be close. If Vargas can protect his eye, he will squeak out a victory.
Vargas by a 12 round split-decision.
Dave Wilcox – It will be more of the same. Both guys are not what they used to be. Shane Mosley will be too fast for Vargas and win a comfortable decision. And of course Fernando Vargas will have an excuse for why he lost.
Mosley by unanimous decision.
Rusty Rubin – Boith fighters have slowed up a lot. Vargas was coming on in their first bout and without the clash of heads he would have won it.
I’ll take Vargas by late TKO.
Terrence Dooley - Hopefully Vargas will power-up a little less in this one and box with composure to take a unanimous decision. He was getting to grips with Shane before the injury last time out and should be stronger at the weight. Vargas to go behind early and pull the late rounds out of the bag to take the fight and set up a third encounter.
John Hively - It should be a competitive bout, but Mosely should once again win it.
Johnny Ortiz - I will again pick "El Feroz" to win, I have always gone with a good big man over a good smaller man. I also think that Fernando is not given the credit he should for being an excellent boxer, one only has to remember the Ike Quartey fight. Make no mistake about it, Fernando Vargas and Shane Mosley will fight their hearts out, they have been doing it for a long time...it’s the only way "El Feroz" and "Sugar Shane" know how to do it.
Matthew Hurley - Fernando Vargas is finally getting what he’s always wanted, a second chance. He knows that he won’t get another one if he loses this fight. Oscar De La Hoya has expressed no interest in fighting him again and Felix Trinidad is retired. Even Winky Wright, whom Vargas holds a disputed decision victory over, has said he won’t fight Vargas again. This is do-or-die for the fighter who prides himself on pleasing his fans. However this time around he would be well served to forget about his fans and fight his fight. He shouldn’t worry about anything else but the fighter in front of him, Shane Mosley. And Mosley already proved to be a difficult task for him. It all starts with the jab. If he can remember that he just may get a win on his ledger over a fighter who has beaten him.
Rick Reeno – After keeping track of their training camps and watching plenty of camp footage over the last few weeks, I think Vargas will be better prepared for the fight. There are future million dollar paydays riding on a win for both of them. Mosley is gunning for Floyd Mayweather and Vargas wants an inevitable crack at middleweight champion Jermain Taylor. The thing to remember about both fighters is that either of them can lose this fight and still be marketable enough to beat a few B-level fighters to bring their career back to the point of another major fight.
I felt Vargas was on his way to winning the first fight and if he does not have any more freak occurrences, he should be able to get the decision.
Vargas by unanimous decision.