By Rick Reeno
On Saturday, February 25th, "Ferocious" Fernando Vargas (27-2, 23 KO's) and "Sugar" Shane Mosley (41-4, 35 KO's) will clash at the junior middleweight limit at the Mandalay Bay Resort and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada. At 34-years of age, Mosley needs the win more badly than the 27-year-old Vargas. Fernando, even with another loss, is still young enough to bring his career back from the dungeon.
On the other hand, Mosley is 3-4-1 in his last eight bouts, has appeared to have slowed down in the reflex department and would need a serious comeback in order to recover from suffering what would be his third loss in his last five bouts. Both men have lost step or two in their game, and most experts wonder if either man will suck it up and deliver the type of performance that made them multi-million dollars superstars in the business.
The staff of BoxingScene comes together to voice their opinions, predictions and analysis on the big fight.
Tim Smith - I believe Mosley, though he will be the smaller man, can use his quickness and boxing skills to frustrate Vargas and win a decision.
Ron Borges - Speed usually beats power, but Vargas is the significantly bigger man going against a guy who has slipped enough that he's no longer considered "Sweet and Lo'' let alone "Sugar.'' Vargas by 11th round TKO.
Rusty Rubin - Tough fight to call. Mosley should be too fast for Vargas, but his legs looked shot in his last two fights. The new Vargas has not impressed me, but he hits a lot harder than the old Mosley. I see Vargas winning with a late stoppage.
Dr. Peter Edwards - Mosley has not looked like "Sugar" for several years. I don't see the old Shane coming back against Vargas. Neither guy is at their best in terms of overall physical skills, but Vargas should be the better man. Vargas by decision.
Larry Tornambe - Mosley lost his edge when he moved up from 147 pounds. Vargas was sharper than I expected after returning from his last layoff. To me, all of this points to a Vargas win, probably by decision because Mosley is still a world class fighter with a good chin.
Matthew Hurley - If Vargas can establish a strong, consistent jab - he should win by decision. However, if he elects to open up, Mosley's speed will take over and he will win a decision. That uncertainty is why I like this matchup.
I'm going with the bigger Vargas. I think he will get that jab working and shut Mosley down.
Vargas UD 12 Mosley
Carlos Irusta - A very close fight, but I'm going with Mosley by decision because he is elusive and smart, and despite the fact that he is the smaller man.
Glenn Wilson - I think that Mosley takes it to him early, then the Fernando of old gets tired of his new defensive, counter punching style and stops Mosley in 8 rounds.
Mike Indri - Should make for an intriguing bout as, obviously, both fighters are past their prime. Which former champion has lost the least of his greatness at this point? I say it's Mosley, and see "Sugar Shane" coming out on top in this entertaining match.
Shane Mosley over Fernando Vargas via unanimous decision.
Dave Wilcox - A good bout that would have been much better five years ago, but those are the breaks. Although Vargas is the bigger and stronger of the two, I feel Sugar Shane Mosley will utilize his superior speed and skill to out point Vargas. I have questions with Vargas' conditioning and stamina after shedding all that weight. Neither guy is what they used to be, but they both have tremendous heart and that will make for an interesting bout.
Mosley by Split decision.
Eric Rineer - This isn't an easy fight to predict but I'm going with Shane Mosley by decision. I think at this point, and at the weight they are fighting at, "Sugar" Shane has the slight advantage. He's just the better overall boxer. Expect Fernando to come out with a lot of energy and heart and make this a great fight. His best shot, like his camp says, will be to make it a street fight.
Tom Donelson - I really could not tell you who will win the Mosley-Vargas fight. This is one of those fights in which no one knows exactly what each fighter brings to the table at this point in their career. Since Mosley moved down to welterweight and Vargas began his most recent comeback, neither fighter has excelled. They have done enough to win against opponents that in their prime, they would have easily smoked and knocked out.
The winner becomes a big money player and the loser starts looking in the mirror to decide how much further he can take this career.
Mosley is the quicker fighter, but Vargas is the bigger man. I give the edge to Vargas on paper but in Vargas' two biggest fights against Trinidad and De La Hoya, he lost and lost decisively. Mosley did beat De La Hoya even though the second victory over De La Hoya was questionable. He lost to Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright in his other big fights above the lightweight division.
Vargas is the favorite but to win, he has to fight like the old Vargas. I am not so certain that he has the old Vargas left in him. Mosley in a close decision, but I would not bet the house on it.
Sammy Rozenberg - A very close fight, both guys appear to be below their best. Mosley by split decision.
Adam Pollack - I see Mosley winning this one. He has a better chin, faster, appears less shot, and beat De La Hoya when Vargas could not. Vargas is bigger and stronger, is quite tough, can box a bit, and definitely has a chance to pull it out, but I think he was ruined after the Trinidad fight, and has looked more lackluster lately than Mosley. Vargas doesn't have the defense of a Winky Wright, nor the height, reach and speed of a Vernon Forrest.
David P. Greisman - It's 2006, and if Pete Rose was to step up to the plate and hit a home run against Jim Palmer, would it matter? Probably not, unless Rose put a bet down on it.
It's still 2006, and Fernando Vargas and Shane Mosley are the boxing equivalent to the hairline of Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. They're young guys, but outside signs show that they're old. But while Hasselbeck started in the Super Bowl and will try to return next season, this may be the last big appearance for one half of Vargas-Mosley, and for good reason. Where once they were at the top of their games, each is now a shell of his former self.
Mosley still has his speed, but has forgotten how to put together combinations, going the distance in wins over David Estrada and Jose Luis Cruz when he should have been able to put them away.
Vargas, too, looks tentative, but at least his wins over Raymond Joval and Javier Castillejo were quality victories over quality opponents.
So where does that leave the two of them? In a crossroads fight where both were already heading in the same direction (down), and now at least one must turn around toward the path of their last gasp. The winner will be the guy that can physically recall his old self.
And that's why the winner is Mosley, no matter whatever size or power difference. Vargas says he's there to fight, but recently he's been seen trying to become acclimated to a different style, and has more to change in order to bring back "El Feroz." Mosley, though, still has shown the speed to box with flash, and enough crack to keep honest a chin that is not exactly the quality of Winky Wright's. But he will need to throw combinations and go to the body, or else Vargas will prove me wrong.
So much points to Vargas proving me wrong: he's looked better in his wins, he's younger, bigger, stronger and talking the right talk. But the cliche says that desperate times call for Mosley to have that flashback to the old days.
And amazingly, if Vargas performs well in defeat, it will still be he with more of a career than Mosley. This might be the last gasp for "Sugar Shane," whose choice to return to 147 leaves opportunities for super fights but not necessarily championship contention at the level he once performed at. Vargas, though, can still be a player at 154, relying on his abilities to take over a division that now lacks Oscar De La Hoya, Winky Wright and Felix Trinidad.
Joe Harrison - It's unfortunate that these two great warriors couldn't have squared off a few years ago, while they were still in their prime. Yet, they will finally meet, and it should be an interesting battle. Although Mosley doesn't appear to be as quick as he once was, Vargas doesn't appear to be as aggressive. I think Mosley still has enough juice left in him.
Mosley over Vargas by unanimous decision
Don Colgan - Vargas by a narrow yet unanimous verdict in a hard fought match with both men visiting the canvas in the latter rounds.
Richie Maldonado - I'm going with Fernando because once he starts to get past Mosley's Jab you will see how skillful he is on the inside. Plus Fernando possesses a good jab of his own, I think the fight will go to a decision in favor of Fernando "El Feroz" Vargas.
Johnny Ortiz - I am picking Fernando to win the fight, I take nothing away from the great skills of Shane Mosley, its just that I think that Fernando is the bigger, stronger guy at the jr. middleweight level, that and the fact that he has recently stated that he is going back to what made him great, and that is putting his ferocious fighting mentality back to work. I know for a fact that he is in the best shape he can possibly be in, he has already been at a comfortable weight weeks leading up to the fight, something he had lost track of doing, if he were to lose this fight, it will not be that he’s not ready. Make no mistake about it; Shane Mosley will also be in the shape of his life. He will leave nothing to chance. With that said, I think Fernando will surprise a lot of people, I think fans will see a lot of the old Fernando Vargas.
Ja Lang G. Greene - Most people are calling this a "crossroads" fight between two former champs. I have to respectfully disagree. Mosley lost two consecutive fights to a top five contender for the mythical pound for pound title (Winky Wright). Vargas on the other hand has failed to impress after rehabbing his ailing back. With talk of Vargas potentially looking ahead to another bout with Oscar De La Hoya, I go with the highly motivated and naturally more gifted Shane.
Shane Mosley UD 10
Mark Workman - Fernando Vargas and Shane Mosley both know that this is a crossroads fight for each of them. Unless we see a spectacular war that screams for a rematch, someone's probably going to the retirement home when it's all over. I'm going with the younger and stronger Vargas. If he can apply non-stop pressure from the opening bell and wage war on the inside, I think he'll KO Mosley inside of ten rounds.
Dave Sauvage - This one is an easy call. At their peak, Mosely would have outmaneuvered and outboxed Vargas. Five years later, Mosley is 80% and Vargas is 50%. Vargas doesn't stand a chance. Mosley to win by unanimous decision.
Ronnie Nathanielsz - This should be a very interesting fight. The bigger Vargas also hits harder, but somehow I feel that a boxer with the skill of Mosley who can take a punch, should eventually come through. Besides, Vargas has a tendency to leave himself open and gets hit a lot because he believes he can take a punch and his power will prevail. However, if Mosley is anywhere near the Mosley who beat Oscar De La Hoya in their first fight, then he should win this one.
Evan Korn - While both fighters are shot, Mosley appears to have just a little bit more in the tank than Vargas, who reached his peak before he was legally allowed to drink. Mosley by unanimous decision.
Ron Gallegos - The fight has all the earmarks of a war. These guys both are never quit and they come to fight. With Fernando, there is always the machismo element. He plays to his fans. With Shane, there is still skill and power. I look for Mosley to win by majority decision. Fans buying this one will not be disappointed. It will be a contender for fight of the year honors. I'm standing by this prediction, although in truth, I've been one hundred percent wrong on all of my other predictions, so go figure. Am I due for a change of luck or more of the same?
Javier Molina - Vargas should overpower Mosley to win a decision.
Paul Gallegos - This fight is what is wrong with boxing. This fight should have taken place 5 years ago. I think that it would have been a super then with the more skilled Shane coming out on top. Now, both men are a shell of themselves. It really doesn't matter who wins this fight because I don't see either one having their careers boosted because of it. I think that Mosely should win if he boxes.
If it turns into a slugfest, then Vargas will come out on top. The bigger question is, where do these once proud warriors go once this fight is over? I would like to see Mosely or Vargas drop down to welterweight and fight Margarito. I see Mosely winning this fight by a close decision.
James Blears - Sugar Shane is six years older than Fernando, but has considerably less wear and tear.
Sure he's lost twice on points to Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright, but he also twice defeated Oscar De La Hoya, who mauled Fernando. Fernando also got battered to the canvas five times by Felix Trinidad.
Recent photos of Fernando who's hovering very close to the required weight limit, make him look gaunt and ill. Even if the experts have nutritionally helped him, he's lost one heck of a lot of weight to reach this stage, and that sacrifice will have definitely weakened him.
His mobility isn't what it was since his back operation, which kept him out for almost two years.
Shane is the smaller man, but he looks in much better shape. He'll weather something of a storm in the first two or three rounds. But by the sixth Fernando will be tiring rapidly. I think Shane will stop him by the eighth. It'll be by the sheer volume of punches. Then the referee will step in.
Jose Aguirre - Both fighters showed lackluster performances in their last few fights. I believe that Fernando Vargas' size and power will make the difference. If the "Feroz" of old returns, we may see a stoppage.
Rick Reeno - I like the bigger man in Vargas. I feel that Shane has lost a significant amount of speed in his last couple of fights and moving up in weight to fight Vargas will not make him any faster. Additionally, Mosley has looked very mediocre in terms of punching power in his last couple of bouts. I've seen Mosley hit his last couple of opponents flush on the chin and the punches caused very little damage.
Most see this fight going to the cards, but I predict a TKO victory for Vargas in ten rounds.
