By Rick Reeno
We are only one day away from what has turned out to be one of most anticipated fights in the last couple of years. Erik Morales, coming off a defeat in his third meeting with Mexican rival Marco Antonio Barrera, steps in the ring with Filipino sensation Manny Pacquiao.
Experts see this fight as Pacquaio's speed and activity level vs. the heart and experience of Morales. Both fighters can hit very hard and both men have already made their intentions of going to war early very clear. The winner will rise to at least the third spot in the pound for pound rankings and sets himself up with a big money payday against Marco Antonio Barrera.
It is now time for the BoxingScene staff to throw their preditcions in the mix and pick the winners of the upcoming Morales-Pacquiao superfight.
Jose Villegas - I really have no clue how this fight will play out. I've been thinking about it over and over and I can easily see each guy winning. I think im gonna have to go with Morales and his boxing over Pac's power. I think Pac leaves himself too open and Morales should step back and counter him to death with uppercuts. If Pac can make Morales slug then he will win, If Morales is smart and boxes then its gonna be his night, but this is really a pick em fight if I ever seen one. Morales KO in 4.
Dr. Peter Edwards - I see Pacquiao coming on strong within the first half of the fight. Morales comes back with a late rally in the second half of the fight, but Pacquiao withstands the attack and walks away with the decision.
Don Caputo - I believe that this is Morales’ fight to lose; he has the heart, strength and boxing ability to contain Pacquiao’s fury IF he fights with his head instead of his heart. I’m expecting Morales’ jab and right uppercut to be his key weapons on the night, Pacquiao will be the aggressor (as always) and I can see him walking onto punches trying to land his own bombs. He will of course be dangerous, but if Morales keeps him at the end of his jab and only exchanges with him in spurts, I can only foresee one
outcome; an ‘El Terrible’ knockout victory. But he needs to resist the temptation to go to war, which as we know is easier said than done in his case. If he can do that though, if he can stick to an intelligent, disciplined fight plan, prepare to see him diffuse the Filipino time-bomb. Eric Morales TKO 9.
Frank Lotierzo - This is a fight I don't have a strong feeling on either way. There are things that concern me about both of them coming off their last fights. In the case of Morales, he starts slow and has to work his way into the flow of the fight. Pacquiao is not the fighter you want to come out slow against. On the other hand, when forced to fight at what would be considered a measured tempo, Pacquiao's the least effective. Pacquiao is also vulnerable to getting dropped because of the way he attacks with reckless abandon. Which is a plus for Morales due to his advantage in height and reach. Morales is desperate and really needs the fight, Pacquiao is on a high and feels like he's unbeatable. Again, I don't have a strong feeling either way. Both fighters have things in their arsenal to present the other with problems. However, since I'm forced to pick, I'll go with the fighter who I believe is more confident, Pacquiao. Most likely by decision.
Richard McManus - Morales’ versatility, boxing skills and overall strength are the keys to victory for him in this one. Pacquiao is an outstanding fighter but relies too heavily on his left hand. Morales has a chin of granite and the experience necessary to weather the early storm. Pacquiao will probably have some good moments in the fight particularly when he lands his trademark left hand on El Terrible’s chin but in the end Morales is going to make the necessary adjustments to outbox and outland Pac Man on his way to a unanimous decision win.
Sammy Rozenberg - Pacquiao by TKO in 11.
Jim Amato - I have to go with Morales. Remember after Marquez survived Pacquaio's early onslaught, he came back to salvage a draw. I feel that Morales is a more complete all around fighter then Juan Marquez. To me it is just a simple matter of styles and I feel Erik has the style and gameness to pull it out against a very tough Pacquaio. No walk in the park but a decision or late round KO for Erik.
Matteo Alderson - Coming into this fight Saturday you have to be excited. Two hard punching champions that prefer offense to defense. This is going to be a great fight. Early on I liked Morales because he’s taller and he’s fought at 130lbs since December of 2003 while Manny moved up to 126 in his November of 2003 domination of Barrera. Also, Manny is a former 112lb champ so it’s going to be interesting to see how he carries the weight. I ran into Manny in the restroom at the Hopkins-Eastman fight and was amazed on how small he was. He isn’t a junior-lightweight, but then again neither is Morales who is better suited for 126, which was very apparent after he struggled with the very ordinary Carlos Hernandez and Jesus Chavez. I want to say the Pac-man is going to win. He is faster, hits harder, and the fresher of the two. I don’t think Manny can hurt Erik and I think Erik’s reach advantage and his super-chin are going to help him come out with the win. Morales by decision or late round TKO.
Steve Cummings - Pacquiao has to stop him to win. I think Manny is a very limited fighter with a big punch and an aggressive attack that has served him well to this point in his career. Marquez exposed him and, I think, beat him. Even after giving up four points in the first round. Morales is a bigger challenge than Marquez. Erik is a top-shelf fighter with experience in major events. The big drawback for El Terrible, however, is he goes to war. He will be in range of Manny's lethal left hand from time to time as long as the bout lasts. If the fight goes the distance, Morales wins and Paquiao looks clumsy again. A stoppage could happen either way. Manny's only chance is a stoppage. I say Morales hurts Manny early, stops the onslaught from getting started and finishes the job somewhere between rounds six and 10.
T.K. Stewart - This is an evenly matched, close fight where both guys will have the opportunities to win it and it's the type of match-up where a strong case could be made for either guy to win it.
On most days, I don't think Manny Pacquiao thinks about a whole lot besides his offense. During the course of events in the Juan Manuel Marquez fight it became clear that Manny has a tendency to do the same thing over and over and over. Plus, Manny has one other glaring stylistic flaw that I don't think bodes well for him in this bout. Pacquiao, a southpaw, will continually move to his own left, which puts him directly into the shots of a right hander. Marquez exposed just how one dimensional Pacquiao is or
can be. Manny's offense consisted of a right jab, right jab, straight left - with not much for bodypunches or hooks. I really don't think that Manny's punches will have much effect on Morales who takes a helluva shot without blinking.
Erik Morales seems the better schooled boxer, and contrary to what some may think he is not that easy to hit because he does keep his gloves up pretty well. I don't think Pacquiao is going to be able to fully deal with Morales' physical strength and the body punches that Erik will throw. I think we'll see a much better prepared Morales for this fight than we saw in his last bout with Barrera. For whatever reason, I think some
complacency set in with Morales for that fight.
This is a close, close fight. Just like the betting parlors and sportsbooks have it, I say it's a pick 'em affair too. If you held a gun to my head I guess I'd have to pick Erik Morales because of his consistency, quality of opposition and longevity at the top. In short, I just think that Erik Morales is a little stronger and a little better and he is better acclimated to fighting at 130 pounds. Stylistically and physically I think Morales has the advantages. I certainly think that Morales can take Pacquiao's punches while I'm not sure about Manny's ability to handle Morales' heavier shots and his bodypunching. What's the old saying? A good big man will usually beat a good little man. That's how I feel about this fight and I see Morales winning by way of a later round TKO.
Dave Wilcox - I've been going back and forth with this one. Morales has the obvious technical advantage, but he is a warrior who will take two to give one. With Pac's power, that will prove to be his undoing. I think the power of Paq will eventually wear down Morales and El Terrible will be stopped by round 10 in a very exciting bout. It should be a classic.
Rusty Rubin - Pac Man, the champion from the Philippines, is moving up a bit in weight and should have little problem in taking his hard punching power with him, and is currently a 6/5 favorite. Manny has the advantage in two areas, power punching and he’s coming off an easy fight. Morales never comes off an easy fight, because he never takes one, but all boxing fans know he has a chin of granite, and a heart just as tough.
I give the edge to Morales in what should be an early candidate for Fight of the Year honors, essentially because he’s the bigger man and has the better whiskers, which he’ll definitely need against Pacquiao. You can bet both fighters will be in each others face all night, and that the fight, unless a bad cut stops it, will go the distance. Logic says Pacquiao, but my heart says Morales. I love the guy. He’s a throwback to the days of the gladiators. Since there’s no beautiful girls involved, and I’m happily married, I’ll go with my heart, Morales by close decision.
Tom Donelson - When researching Billy Soose for a book project, there was one thing that many old boxers did, "fight each other". Many of these fights were non-championship affairs but great fighters fought great fighters. Manny Pacquiao and Erik Morales are challenging each other and while there are no championship belts, there is pride on the line. For Morales, he wants to show the world that he is still the best in the 130 pound division and beating Marco Antonio Barrera's conqueror would be a first step in that direction. Manny Pacquiao has decided that he is going to challenge the best in the feather and super feather weight division and that means fighting the Mexican trio of Morales, Barrera and Marquez. Right now, the Pac man has one win and a draw against two-thirds of the Mexican trio and now he is completing his trilogy by battling Morales. Who knows, when this fight is over, we can declare Pacquiao the champion of Mexico.
This fight is intriguing since it could be a bloody drawn out affair or quick one punch and out. Morales' advantages is his height and right hand. As Marquez showed in his fight with Pacquiao, that the Pac Man was vulnerable to a counter right hand. And Morales right is a stronger punch than Marquez. Pacquiao strength is his hand speed and Morales' tendency to give up his height and go toe-to-toe.
When Pacquiao fought Barrera, he started fast and Barrera never was able to deal successfully with Pacquiao hand speed. In his fight with Marquez, Pacquiao nearly ended the fight in the first round and smacked his Mexican challenger all over the ring in the second. From the third round on, Marquez boxed and countered. He moved a half step back and shot his right into the charging Pacquiao. Pacquiao never adopted and Marquez accuracy became more apparent as the fight wore on. Pacquiao started eating right hands and never threatened Marquez again. Pacquiao showed no adaptability and ended up with a draw in a fight that looked over in the first round.
Morales, in his last fight with Barrera, lost many of the early rounds and never got going until the second half of the fight. If Morales starts out slow against Pacquiao, he will be playing into Pacquiao's hands. Pacquiao biggest opportunities will come in the opening half of the fight. If he is able to dominate and hurt Morales, then the fight is his.
Morales is not the boxer that Marquez is and the big question is whether Morales can adopt a similar strategy that thwarted the PacMan from the third round in his fight with Marquez. Morales have been in a few more wars but in this fight he is the stronger fighter whereas Pacquiao is the quicker fighter. This is a pick em fight but I am going with Morales with a late round TKO or decision. The major deciding factor will be that Pacquiao will moving right into the taller Morales power range.
Lucian Parfitt - Yes, Pacquiao has never fought at 130 pounds before, but I feel he has grown into the division more than people say. He starved himself to make 122 and had to “make” 126, so he will be stronger than people think at 130. I have heard numerous people say Pacquaio will not be able hurt a guy with a chin like Morales at 130 but what 130-pound punchers has Morales faced? Jesus Chavez? Carlos Hernandez? And Chavez hurt Morales badly in the first round of their fight. Marquez was able to make the distance with Pacquaio because he has a boxer's mentality, Morales likes to rumble too much for his own good in this fight. I think the combination of Morales being a slow starter and Pacquaio a murderous one make for a bad combination. I expect Pacquaio to tattoo Morales early like he did Marquez, and have him seriously hurt; the difference being Morales’ warrior mentality and less sharp punching will make it a war. Pacquiao’s speed will be decisive as he out hustles Morales and punishes him to the extent that the referee stops the massacre with Morales still on his feet around the 4th. Not sure about this though, as we just do not know how Pacquiao’s chin will react if Morales lands flush.
Jacquie Richardson (RBF) - This is an excellent fight between two great boxers. Both are fast and both hit hard! Having seen Pac in training, and assuming that he will not deviate from his fight plan, Pac Man will win. IF he gets distracted or loses his focus, he gives it to Morales.
Damien Picierello - Manny Pacquiao TKO 9 Erik Morales Pacquiao comes out swinging and moving forward, Morales starts off in boxing mode, jabbing and countering from the outside. In the second or third round, with the previous rounds taken by the more technically sound Morales, Pacquiao starts to score with damaging blows. Morales abandons his boxing strategy and begins to stand inside with Pacquiao, relying on his bodywork and short uppercuts to do the job. Manny begins to score more and more frequently, however, and by the sixth or seventh round he's beginning to stun Morales with straight left hands. It's an all-out war from the second or third round until the end of the fight, both fighters are bleeding and tired, but Pacquiao comes on strong in the eighth and drops Morales at the close of the round. Morales makes it to the corner, but is dropped again to start the ninth before the referee steps in and calls a halt to the bout. Pacquiao wins by TKO in the ninth round.
David Greisman - Manny Pacquiao's going to come out guns-a-blazin', and he'll attempt to go with Freddie Roach's strategy to make Erik Morales move backwards. Morales may even go down once or twice, but once Pacquiao opens up and goes for the kill, he might get knocked down, too. It's going to be an action bout with boxing involved, but I think we'll see Manny Pacquiao defeat Erik Morales via close decision.
James Blears - This fight is most definitely up for grabs, and whoever executes their gameplan best will triumph. Manny is in the physical and mental condition of his life with lightning speed and thunderbolt punching power. While Erik has size, and somewhat greater experience at this weight category and rarefied championship level.
If Erik looses focus to get tempted and drawn away from his boxing into a slugfest, he'll get decked like Marco Antonio Barrera and Juan ManuelMarquez. If he uses his height, savvy and reach advantage, and weathers what's going to be one helluva initial onslaught, he will win a split decision. But it'll be touch and go in an incredible classic which will top his third war with Barrera.
Robert Padilla - SHOULD BE A GREAT FIGHT BUT IF MORALES IS KNOCKED DOWN ON THE CANVAS CAN HE GET UP LIKE MARQUEZ DID? THIS SEEMS TO BE A WAR WITH MORALES SHOWING NO RESPECT FOR PACQUIAO AND PACQUIAO HAVING THE HAND SPEED AND POWER. THE ONLY THING WORKING AGAINST PACQUIAO MAY BE THE WEIGHT THAT IS IN FAVOR OF MORALES. THE ONLY THING I AM BETTING IS THAT IT WON'T BE A DRAW.
Mike Indri - This fight is a boxing fan's dream! The anticipated non-stop action brawl, from round one's opening bell till the end, should make for an early entry into 2005's "fight-of-the-year" category. Pacquiao destroyed Barrera, Barrera recently beats up Morales - obvious choice should be Pacquiao: but I see Morales the victor in a hard-fought, "back in the alley" style fight! In the end Morales will find (must find) a way to allow his superior boxing talents to prevail against Pacquiao's annihilating style. Raul Marquez's ability to survive, and actually get the better of the "Pac-Man"-after getting knocked down three times in round one of their classic battle (12 round draw), is what Morales MUST have in his mind, and in his game plan against the ever-dangerous Pacquiao. Morrales will show his true heart, his Champion heart. "El Terrible" will battle Manny early, then out-box him late enroute to a TKO win in the latter rounds of a fight definately worth watching. Morrales TKO 10-12th round over Pacquiao.
Rick Reeno - Some may or may not agree with me, but I consider Erik Morales the stronger fighter in this fight. I think the strenght of Morales will play an important role in the bout. Barrera is strong enough to keep a fighter at bay, but does not have the one punch KO power that Morales can drop. Both fighters leave themselves open to get hit, their defense if average at best. The lack of defense and the abundance of offense is what makes this fight so exciting. One guy can end the fight in a round or the fight can be a hard fought twelve round battle, the fight can play out either way.
This is really a do or die fight for Morales. Even if Pacquiao loses very bad, he can still get rematches with Marquez and Barrera. If Morales loses, it's a whole other issue since Barrera and Marquez will be running a marathon in order to get that Pacquiao pay day. A Morales loss can leave him without a "name" opponent for a long time. Morales should win this fight, it's a matter of doing it the easy way or the hard way. If he goes to war and does it the hard way, his big right hand counters will win this fight for him. If he decides to do it the easy way and box Manny Pacquaio like he did Barrera in their second fight, he can win the fight without fireworks.
I think Morales learned a huge lesson in his last fight, he came in heavy thinking bigger was better and it lost him the fight. And I think Erik like most people underestimated Barrera and thought he was going to be a much easier fight because of the Pacquiao beating. This time around, Morales will be lean, he knows Manny can hit hard and he is seasoned enough to know that his jab will be the kryptonite to Manny's superman speed. Morales has never fought anyone as fast or energetic as Pacquiao, but at the same time Pacquiao has never fought anyone as strong or as big as Morales.
In closing, I think Pacquiao will be strong in the early rounds until Erik figures him out. They will trade in the middle rounds, Morales will break him down and should get the TKO win within 10 rounds.
