By Rick Reeno
Tomorrow night at the "Mecca of Boxing," Madison Square Garden, Miguel Cotto (30-0, 25 KOs), will defend his WBA welterweight title against the former three division champion "Sugar" Shane Mosley (44-4, 37 KOs).
"I am very excited to be returning to Madison Square Garden and I will be completely prepared for the biggest fight of my career," said Cotto. "Shane is a great fighter but he will not be the better fighter on November 10. I will be leaving the ring the same way I will be entering it -- undefeated and still world champion."
Mosley, an established superstar who fought some of the best fighters of our era, is the biggest and most dangerous opponent of Cotto's career.
"Cotto is a great fighter, but so am I, and we're going to light up the Garden on November 10," said Mosley. "I don't think I've ever been more excited for a fight. I can't wait to get in the ring and get it on."
The staff of BoxingScene.com comes together to voice their opinions, predictions and strategies for the big fight.
Michael Katz - This is another one where the only safe prediction is for a terrific fight. Who wins? The fan. But with a little more optimism than usual about my prognostication, I also believe in Sugar Shane, and I'm diabetic. Cotto, of course, can truly be ready for a personal best performance and I believe he is going to put in a real good one, but for me, Mosley has already demonstrated his greatness and at 36, I sense not a slippage but a rebirth. He looked as frisky as ever against Luis Collazo and I think Cotto will bring out the best in him. Mosley, by decision in a great fight.
Keith Idec - Mosley by tenth-round TKO. Cotto's ability to overcome trouble is incredible, but when Mosley hurts him (and he will), he'll know how to deal the Puerto Rican icon his first loss. Mosley cannot afford to get reckless, though, because Cotto looks beatable until opponents get in there and realize how strong he actually is.
Kieran Mulvaney - In many respects, this is the worst possible style match-up for Cotto. When he has shown vulnerabilities, it has been against opponents with fast hands and a good punch, both of which qualities Mosley has in spades. That said, even when displaying such vulnerabilities, Cotto has responded with stoppage wins. I don't think he'll stop Mosley; I don't think he'll drop him either. But I think he will walk through fire, perhaps wobbling or even falling along the way, to pound his way to a rough, tough, but emphatic and crowd-pleasing win.
Cotto by decision.
Lem Satterfield - Miguel Cotto by decision. Mosley’s been getting hit a lot, and Cotto might be getting him at just the right time.
Tim Smith - Miguel Cotto is a relentless machine. Shane Mosley is an experienced ex-champion who can box and brawl. I like the veteran in this one. Mosley by decision.
David P. Greisman - Boxing fans love a true 50-50 fight, and that's what we'll see this weekend when Miguel Cotto defends his welterweight title at Madison Square Garden against "Sugar" Shane Mosley.
Cotto has blossomed into a true superstar, filling New York City's boxing Mecca in victories there for the past three years. And he's done so by pounding his opponents into the dirt: The only foe who's lasted the distance in Cotto's past 10 fights was Paulie Malignaggi, whose face afterward showed clear signs of 12 rounds of abuse.
Mosley, meanwhile, is a 36-year-old multi-division champion whose career will be approaching its sunset at some point in the near future. The question remains whether his swan song will begin playing this weekend.
Mosley has only made three appearances at welterweight since jumping to junior middleweight back in 2003. In each -- decision victories over David Estrada, Jose Luis Cruz and Luis Collazo -- Mosley has won, albeit not in the same spectacular manner that marked his original rune at 147. Mosley outpointed Collazo in February, winning by a comfortable margin but occasionally appearing hittable against the slick southpaw.
Cotto is neither. He is a face-first stalker who breaks his opponents down one round, one punch at a time. It's the kind of style that can make a once-fast and furious boxer-puncher look old.
Not this time.
Cotto has indeed looked stronger and fiercer now that he no longer has to dehydrate himself to make weight. But he has shown one vulnerability: He's hittable, be it from combinations coming from Oktay Urkal or fast power punches from Zab Judah. Cotto's been able to weather any onslaught and unleash his own thunder in the past, but Mosley is stronger than Urkal and more focused than Judah.
Yes, Mosley is approaching the sunset. He won't, however, be riding off on Saturday, not when there's one more great performance left in his tank. Mosley via stoppage in a result that won't kill Cotto's growing legend, but will eventually make it stronger.
Bob Canobbio/CompuBox - Shane Mosley by 10th round tko in an instant classic.. Sugar's uppercut the difference all night...
Dave Sholler - I don't think it's a stretch to say that Cotto-Mosley may be one of the toughest fights of the year to pick. In one corner stands Miguel Cotto, a young Puerto Rican sensation whose relentless attack and splendid power is hard to match. Across the ring awaits veteran Shane Mosley, a precise puncher who efficiently outsmarts and outworks his opponents.
In trying to garner a decision, I've reviewed a lot of tape and discovered that Cotto's defense is certainly a cause for concern. He leaves himself open for big shots (see Zab Judah's uppercuts and a Ricardo Torres right hand) and his bulldog-like approach sometimes exposes poor positioning. In a mega-bout with a taller, longer Mosley, one must wonder if Cotto can sure up his defense and get in on Sugar Shane's body. If he can't, Cotto may find himself on the wrong end of Mosley's snapping jabs and menacing right hand.
In the end, I'm sticking with the prediction I made when the fight was initially announced. I believe that if Cotto can make it through the first six rounds, he will control the second half of the fight in route to a knockout victory. As we've seen before, Cotto's ruthless attack eventually wears down anyone in his path. On November 10, Shane Mosley just so happens to be in Cotto's way.
Prediction: Cotto by 8th round TKO
Jake Donovan - Cotto by TKO in ten. Every so often, experience conquers youth, but I don't see it happening here. No knockdowns, but Shane, after controlling the action early, will fall behind midway through and get to a point where he's absorbing too much punishment, forcing the referee to intervene - most likely against Shane's wiil, but for his own good in the end.
TK Stewart - I think people are going to be surprised at the outcome of this fight. In my opinion, one guy is stronger, has the better defense, is the faster puncher, the busier puncher, the bigger puncher and has more determination. The guy I am speaking of is Miguel Cotto. I think he's better than Shane Mosley in all of those key areas and I think he will win this fight. At his younger age I think he'll force Mosley into a dogfight and at age 36 that's the type of fight that Shane cannot win. I think Cotto will actually have an easier time with Mosley than he did Judah and that he'll break Shane down. Mosley gets hit a lot and I just can't see him standing up to Cotto's powershots and bodypunches. Because both guys like to lead with their noggins I can see a clash of heads ending this one early. But barring that circumstance, I like Cotto by a late TKO or a very convincing decision win. Mosley is further gone than what the "drive-by" boxing writers think and I see Cotto winning easier than most "experts" ever believed was possible.
Mitch Abramson - My head thinks Cotto is too strong, too aggressive, and too young for Mosley. My heart and everyone else I speak to say that Mosley is too fast and hits too hard for Cotto. I've seen basically every fight Cotto has had in the pros, seen him in person quite a few times, and have come around to what makes him so dangerous: he simply refuses to lose, and will do anything, repeat ANYTHING to win. Go ask Zab Judah. That being the case, this fight has all the makings of a grueling, 12-round slugfest in which the better conditioned athlete, should prevail. I think Mosley and his father/trainer Jack are underestimating Cotto a bit. Cotto by split decision in a classic Garden fight.
Cliff Rold - Cotto may have trouble with Shane's speed early but Shane's never been the one-punch banger that a Judah is so I don't expect Cotto to be as wobbly early. If Shane doesn't have him down or trailing after four this could get ugly. I think it just might. It'll be a great crowd and exciting throughout, but Cotto on a corner stoppage sometime after the eighth round.
James Blears - A lot is being made of the nine years difference in their age. That said, Shane is in great condition and welterweight is his natural stomping ground. Miguel has been wobbled and in trouble during his unbeaten career and I think this flaw will be exposed by Shane, who has a massive seven-inch reach advantage. If both stand their ground and unload their considerable firepower, there’ll be fireworks and it’ll be a classic. But if this happens it’ll never go the distance. I’m expecting the referee to step in to save Miguel around the eighth round, with Shane firing on all cylinders.
Amy Green - Shane Mosley needs to prove he is still at the top of his professsion and Miguel Cotto is still striving to prove he has gained championship caliber. Should Mosley's speed happen to hamper Cotto's punishing body work, then the fight goes the distance and Mosley emerges victorious, relatively unscathed, and more intact than Paulie Malignaggi did at the end of his battle with Cotto. But this fight looks to be a brawl, and I will go out on a limb and predict Cotto stops Mosley in ten. Mosley will suffer from Cotto's heavy handed body shots. This is a way different fighter than Mosley has faced in a long time- Collazo, Vargas and even a prime Oscar de la Hoya don't compare to the rough, tough and hungry Cotto.
Larry Tornambe - What a tough one to call. I have found it hard to bet against Mosley at Welterweight. He still has his speed but his chin will be tested. Cotto has the momentum, youth and power. Overall, I see a tough fight for both guys, but I see Mosely's speed beating Cotto's power. Mosley by decision.
Michael Doss - Shane Mosley shined against Luis Collazo and to some that means a lot, considering how well Luis did against Ricky Hatton. It doesn't mean much to me though, Collazo is no Cotto, by far, honestly I cannot name a guy that Shane has been with in the last 2 or 3 years that has the body punching ability that Miguel has. This will be a good fight with Shane starting fast, maybe even winning the first few rounds and giving a great effort later, but I think that Cotto digs the body all night and Shane slows down. When that happens, the man from Puerto Rico will take over.
There is a possible chance of a late TKO but Ill go ahead and take the safe bet and call a close but comfortable unanimous decision for Miguel Cotto.
Richard McManus - I'm a huge Shane Mosley fan. But I'm more of a believer in Miguel Cotto's power. I think he has the great equalizer in the ring. I think Shane will win the early rounds based on speed and volume of punches but Cotto's will and power will be too much for Shane. It's a crossroads fight, and Miguel Cotto is like a freight train. Even though my heart says Mosely, my head says Cotto. Cotto by decision.
Terence Dooley - Shane Mosley by decision over Miguel Cotto. Mosley is too good a boxer and too big a guy. Should be a good one though.
Troy Ondrizek - Shane Mosley comes out fast and accurate working well behind his jab with straight rights and left hooks. Shane will pile up the early rounds with cleaner punching. As in typical Cotto fashion he will wear down Mosley and come on strong in the end starting to chop away Shane's legs. Cotto will fade in the 11th and 12th round giving Mosley a close Majority Decision.
Alphonso Costello - My prediction? Pain. Miguel Cotto defeats Shane Mosley in a brutal fight.
Brent Matteo Alderson - I like Shane Mosley. I can't believe Arum would risk his annual Puerto Rican Day Parade cash cow in a fight with Mosley, but I'm glad he did because this fight is going to be good. At the end of the day Shane's solid chin, experience against the super-elite, and size will take him to victory unless he grows old overnight which can happen to middle-aged fighters.
Joe Harrison - This should be a great battle. Shane Mosley poses a great threat with his speed and experience, but he seems to be passed his prime. Cotto is young and hungry but it's difficult to imagine him catching Mosley. This match is going the distance, and Mosley has enough left in the tank to win this one. Mosley by unanimous decision.
Paul Gallegos - Miguel Cotto in a one-sided destruction. Cotto by KO within 9.
Bradley Yeh - This fight is all about the fact that Mosley’s punch resistance, as a result of his tenure in the junior middleweights with top class operators, should be better than Cotto requires it to be, and what advantages Mosley can take away from an opponent; rather than age or what either guy can give.
I think this fight could easily be a draw if Cotto can adapt and get used to the idea that he won't win by KO, but if pushed to select for a win, I am picking Mosley.
Dan Creighton - Miguel Cotto by ninth-round TKO.
"JC" Casarez - Shane Mosley by late KO. Sugar Shane too sweet for Cotto. While Cotto is a young, strong champion, there is nothing in his arsenal that Mosley has not seen. Growing up sparring in LA's toughest gyms Mosley has become accustomed to the seek and destroy style that has made Cotto famous. I expect the faster Mosley to out speed and land the punches that make the difference in this epic fight. Mosley's underrated body punching will pave way to creating the opening for right hands that will lead to a stoppage.
Carlos Irusta - Cotto by KO in the late rounds. Mosley will be the hardest test for in the career of young Cotto, for his speed and style will give him trouble, but I think the younger and stronger man will be the winner. I was in Cotto's training camp last week in Puerto Rico and he is fast, strong and in very good shape. Mosley is a good boxer, but has a double problem: if he runs, he must run all night. If he decides to win by taking the iniciative, he will be in danger of exchanging blows and getting hurt. It will be a interesting test for Cotto.
Sammy Rozenberg - Miguel Cotto punishes Mosley until the ref stops it before ten.
Dave Wilcox - I desperately want to pick my Southern Californian brother to score the upset. Cotto can be hit and Mosley has those quick hands and the kind of movement that will cause Cotto fits in the ring. Mosley will look real good in the first half of the fight, but the constant body work and strength of Cotto inside will eventually wear Sugar Shane down. Cotto will pull away in the championship rounds. I think Cotto's youth and strength will be the deciding factors. I do believe that Sugar Shane Mosley will give a good effort, but in the end, you can't beat father time. Cotto by unanimous decision.
Ernest Gabion - Miguel Cotto by a late stoppage.
Ron Gallegos - It seems the only time Sugar has really been able to rise to the occasion is when he was fighting Oscar De La Hoya. And in those fights he exhibited tenacity, courage and skill and walked away with deserved decisions. I really like Sugar Shane. But the reality of this fight is, no contest. Cotto has too much youth, speed and power. I don't look for this even to be a contest. TKO in about the fifth. Sugar won't quit, but his corner cares a bit too much for him to allow him to absorb the punishment. I look for a retirement announcement following the fight.
Don Colgan - Miguel Cotto is going to outlast Shane. The first six sessions Mosley will outpunch and outthink Cotto yet absorb punishment inside. He will be winning the battle and gradually losing the war. The fact that he has only scored one KO over the past 4 years will begin to take its toll, as will Mosley's 36 years.
Cotto by an 11th round TKO, with Mosley down in the 9th, 10th and 11th sessions.
Rick Reeno - Maybe I'm not convinced by Miguel Cotto's win streak. I picked Malignaggi to beat him, I picked Judah to clock him and even saw Carlos Quintana being able to outbox him. A win over Shane Mosley will do a lot to convince me. Notwithstanding, I haven’t learned my lesson because I'm still picking Mosley to win, by knockout. This has nothing to do with height, Quintana and Pinto were both taller. Mosley does have a significant reach advantage, 74 to 67-inches, and that's a lot for Shane to work with. Mosley has the better chin, the better resume and he does hit hard. Cotto is just like his Puerto Rican predecessor, Felix Trinidad, gifted with exception power and cursed with a shaky chin. Cotto is not one-dimensional like Trinidad, but Trinidad takes a better punch to the jaw.
Shot or not, Mosley still accomplished what only De La Hoya and Trinidad were able to do to Vargas. Mosley is smaller than De La Hoya or Trinidad, and yet he still stood his ground to slug it out with the Vargas, who probably weighed close to 170 when he entered the ring for their rematch. Cotto is coming off a grueling win over Zab Judah, but Mosley is no Judah. If Mosley sticks to his jab and gives Cotto angles, he can have a field day. Cotto will have to open up to dig those hard hooks to the body and Mosley is quick enough to capitalize. I see Mosley winning before ten-rounds.
