By Jake Donovan
 
It's a welterweight crossroads bout with the strangest of implications.
 
The winner of this weekend’s HBO Boxing After Dark showcase between Andre Berto and Luis Collazo (Saturday, 9:45PM ET/PT, Biloxi, MS) gains more than just another check in the W column.

He gains by far the greatest victory of his career, and knocks on the door of Top 5 status in the deepest and most marketable division in the sport.

He becomes a viable candidate for the winner in yet another January welterweight collision, this one next weekend between Antonio Margarito and Shane Mosley.

Yet it’s a win that both fighters need, as they sorely lack one anywhere nearly as significant.

Despite his modest level of competition on the way up, Berto (23-0, 19KO) for years has carried the “can’t miss” label in terms of future star status. There’s plenty to like about the undefeated boxer-puncher from Winter Haven, FL. He’s remained perfect through four years as a pro. He’s body-beautiful and always in tip-top shape. He boasts an Olympic pedigree and is currently in possession of alphabet hardware which, like or not, still means something in this day and age.

So what’s not to like?

Those who believe his star-status is just more HBO hyperbole being forced upon us point to his slow road to the top. Through four years as a pro, the potential exists, but he’s yet to face to the level of opposition to suggest that something special is on the horizon.

It’s for that reason that many take issue with the fact that this weekend’s bout is being treated as a foregone conclusion. That Collazo is considered far and away the best Berto has faced to date isn’t necessarily a compliment, yet odds makers believe the stocky Floridian to be as much as a 6 ½-1 favorite to remain unbeaten by fights end.

The odds may very well prove to be true, but it’s a see-it-to-believe-it approach from now until the opening bell sounds on Saturday evening. Collazo is ranked in the top ten of most of the respectable welterweight rankings, the first universally regarded contender Berto’s faced to date.

The closest he’s come prior to this weekend would be the fight that served as his breakthrough performance, a thorough domination of faded gatekeeper David Estrada. His 10th round stoppage served as a primer for Kelly Pavlik’s middleweight title-winning effort against Jermain Taylor.

Berto’s performance was brilliant in a vacuum; he just had the unfortunate luck of preceding one of the best fights of 2007. What the night managed to provide was the instant facelift needed following his previous performance, an off-the-canvas decision win over Cosme Rivera on ESPN2.

Prior to running into the former world title challenger, Berto was blazing hot. Undefeated through eighteen fights, and riding a 14-fight knockout streak heading into the summer clash with Rivera.

For five rounds, two minutes and 55 seconds, Berto was his usual brilliant self. Rivera proved to be tougher than the prior 18 he’d faced, but no more successful in winning rounds.

Then came a left uppercut that put Berto on the canvas for the first – and to date, the only – knockdown of his career. The timing wasn’t the greatest for Rivera, coming at the very end of the round, which meant a mandatory eight count would be followed by a full minute to recover.

Berto was given even more time after a torn right glove meant a quick change in equipment. Whether it was staged or purely coincidental is debated to this day. What remains absolute was Berto’s ability to recuperate and regain control, which happened shortly after the bell sounded to begin round seven.

The points verdict was the first time in 3 ½ years he was forced to go to the cards, but a win is a win. It’s the same fate for which he had to settle in his most recent fight, when a modest two-fight knockout streak was disrupted by Stevie Forbes’ ability to absorb and go the distance in their September encounter.

Forbes’ granite chin was well-documented going into their fight, which put the pressure on Berto to deliver more than the status quo. To say he failed would be putting it too harsh, but there was little about his 12-round decision win that couldn’t be classified as predictable. Forbes was tough early on before the young lion took over in the latter stages of the fight. Forbes was never a threat to get knocked out; Berto was never in danger of losing the fight.

At best, he matched the performance of badly faded future Hall of Famer, Oscar de la Hoya, though even that point is tough to argue. Not as sparkling was the fact that it took place in front of a much smaller audience at a near-empty Home Depot Center in Carson, CA, as well as among those watching at home on HBO.

The sparse crowd isn’t necessarily the fault of Berto, who was never expected to be a draw on the Left Coast. What is cause for concern is, five years in, he has yet to really develop as a draw anywhere.

Madison Square Garden’s The Theatre was suggested for his vacant title fight with Miguel Rodriguez last summer and was also rumored to host this weekend’s bout with Collazo. The Rodriguez fight wound up relocating to Memphis, for no other reason than promoter Lou DiBella receiving a much better site deal. It certainly wasn’t for the regional high demand, as the show was lucky to pull 2,000.

On paper, a New York City backdrop for a fight with the Brooklyn-born Collazo makes plenty of sense. The greater question is whether it would make cents and dollars. Neither fighter has proven to be a draw anywhere, which helps explain why the two instead travel to the Beau Rivage Resort and Casino in Biloxi, Mississippi. When in doubt, get casinos to shell out.

Perhaps in time, Berto will develop a fan base in a particular region of the country. Based in Florida and of Haitian descent, no such expectations should exist to be a draw in, say New York.

The same forgiveness cannot be granted to Collazo. The heavily tattooed Nuyorican southpaw has managed to squeeze a lot of mileage out of two notable fights in his career, only one of which is an official win.

One was his April 2005 split decision nod of Jose Antonio Rivera. Aside from the alphabet title that was at stake that evening, Collazo received praise for accepting the fight on extremely short notice, and in Rivera’s hometown of Worcester, Massachusetts. The partisan crowd took great issue with the close call going against the man for whom they paid good money to see, but those with a more objective view believe that at least two of the three judges got it right that evening.

That was the good news. The bad news was that what remains the biggest win of Collazo’s career took place before the Showtime cameras began rolling for the lone televised bout of the evening, Jean Marc Mormeck’s cruiserweight title unifying win over Wayne Braithwaite.

The soft-spoken New Yorker would get his chances to cash in on the momentum. Next to follow was an appearance in a preliminary bout on a pay-per-view headlined by Hasim Rahman’s points win over Monte Barrett. The show was well attended, with 15,000 fans piling into the United Center in Chicago, bearing witness to Collazo’s eight-round beatdown of Miguel Angel Gonzalez. The oddity of the night was that it was a rare card where as many fans attended as those who actually purchased the event.

Still, the win itself was enough to put Collazo in position to secure at the time the biggest payday of his career, when he was selected as the opponent of choice for Ricky Hatton’s highly anticipated HBO debut in May 2006. The bout would end with Collazo on the wrong end of a controversial decision, though gaining a moral victory in serving as the toughest test to date for Hatton, who entered the fight having gained universal recognition as 2005’s Fighter of the Year. Many at ringside believed Collazo did enough to earn more than just a moral victory; the three ringside judges believed otherwise, awarding Hatton a razor-thin decision.

Collazo’s career hasn’t quite sparkled as bright since then. A lopsided points loss to Shane Mosley came in an empty Vegas arena in February ’07, a double whammy for any fighter looking to get paid. The Mosley fight was his only in four post-Hatton ring appearances in which his arm wasn’t raised in victory. The bad news is that none of the three wins rate in the grand scheme of things.

The same could be said of his resume as a whole, with the Rivera fight remaining as the signature win of his eight-year career.

Considering the age of both combatants this weekend – Collazo turning 28 in April, while Berto just turned 25 last September – there’s plenty of time to regroup even with a loss this weekend. Considering their age and current welterweight ranking, a win this weekend, in addition to rating as the biggest of said victor’s career, should be viewed as a remarkable achievement.

Yet despite so much lying ahead for both winner and loser, the one whose arm is raised by night’s end will only now receive something that has for the moment proved to be far too elusive – validation.
 
Jake Donovan is a voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Comments/questions can be submitted to JakeNDaBox@gmail.com.