By Cliff Rold

From splat to champion in less than a year?

It could happen this weekend.

It’s happened before.

In 1989, Terry Norris got his first shot at a Junior Middleweight crown against all-time puncher Julian Jackson.  It didn’t go so well for Norris.  After a commanding first round, he was commandingly near decapitated along the ropes.  The loss might have devastated most fighters but Norris got another title shot less than a year later and bounced faded veteran John Mugabi in a single frame.

Even without a great chin, Norris was one hell of a talent.  There are indications 2004 Olympic Silver Medalist Amir Khan is as well.  He’ll need to be because his chin is as suspect as any top draw in the business.  The British star is less than one year, and only a couple of fights, removed from an epic one-round flaming at the hands of Breidis Prescott in a non-title fight. 

It might be a stretch to compare Prescott to Jackson.  It’s certainly a stretch to compare Khan to Norris in a substantive way so far.

Will it be Khan’s misfortune that he attempts his first major title against a man who is anything but a faded name?

Let’s go to the report card. 

The Ledgers

Andriy Kotelnik
Age: 31
Titles: WBA Jr. Welterweight (2008-Present, 2 Defenses)
Height: 5’7 ½
Weight: 139.6 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 139.95 lbs.
Hails from: Lvov, Ukraine
Record: 31-2-1, 13 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Gavin Rees)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat or Draw: 2 (Souleymane M’Baye, Junior Witter)

Vs.

Amir Khan
Age: 22
Title: None
Height: 5’10
Weight: 140 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 134.7 lbs.
Hails from: Bolton, Lancashire, U.K
Record: 20-1, 15 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Gairy St. Clair, Marco Antonio Barrera)

Pre-Fight Grades
Speed: Khan A; Kotelnik B
Power: Khan B; Kotelnik C+
Defense: Khan B-; Kotelnik B+
Intangibles: Khan B; Kotelnik B

The weights for these fights are of some interest as this fight represents a move up the scale for Khan on paper.  Khan has had only a handful above 135 lbs. and under some circumstances one could ask if the move up were a factor.

It should not be in this case.  Standing a lanky, muscular 5’10, Khan has the advantage in height and should enter the ring the larger man.  The size edge should matter as the physical tools of each man come into play. 

Khan has two distinct genetic advantages: speed and power.  Since the Athens Games, Khan has been closely watched because of those traits.  He possesses an athletic fluidity Kotelnik does not and can put together effective combinations off of a snapping jab.  He’s not necessarily a one-punch knockout artist but Khan gets to the target so quick he can stun guys by catching them blind.

Kotelnik is not slow but his strength is in fundamentals and consistency.  He applies his jab, goes to the body, and fires a nice straight right.  All of it is educated.  Where Khan is a talent, Kotelnik is a fighter whose had to fully learn his craft.  Losses to Witter and M’Baye made him better and it’s shown in a title victory over Rees and close, rough defense against Marcos Maidana earlier this year.

Kotelnik doesn’t have the one thing Khan would most have to fear though.  He doesn’t have serious power.  He’s not light handed per se; he hits hard enough to keep his foes honest and has shown finishing ability late in fights.  One doesn’t need heavy hands to get Khan in trouble of course.  Light punching Willie Limond had him on the floor and teetering on the edge.  However, Kotelnik can’t count on pop to bail him out if he gets behind.

If he is going to get to Khan it will be because the British product sometimes gets too aggressive.  Khan, to date, has been less than a defensive wizard.  Along with the Limond fight, he warred with Michael Gomez and took his fair share of shots against a bloodied and old Barrera in his last outing.  Kotelnik is intelligent in the ring and he’ll time his right hand for the rushes, particularly if he’s forced to come of the ropes.  He might not be able to stop Khan, but if he can drop him he forces dilemmas in the scoring which could make Khan desperate and even more hittable.  Khan is working in the U.S. with trainer Freddie Roach and may be expected to improve in this area; we’ll know more on Saturday.

It’s hard to imagine any advances will surpass the defensive skill of Kotelnik.  Like so many well schooled eastern European products, Kotelnik keeps his hands high and elbows tight to the body.  Khan isn’t going to find him easy to hit but he can use the defense to his advantage.  In his losses, Kotelnik has shown some of the same transition problems other Eastern Europeans have as well.  He is on offense or defense, one at a time.  If Khan can use his speed and flurries to pin him down and get out of range before the shifts, he can frustrate the titlist for long stretches at a time.

Finally, there are the bout intangibles.  Kotelnik has faced better opposition and will have the weight of experience.  His bouts with Rees and Maidana were both grueling affairs and, unlike Khan victim Gomez, Kotelnik still has his best stuff.  If this is close, Kotlenik can survive a gut check and he’s shown an excellent beard so far.

Khan has passed some serious gut checks already.  The chin liability can’t be ignored but outside the Prescott disaster Khan has shown he can get off the floor and fight like the dickens to score stoppages.  He’s got character.

The Pick

Once again, weight comes into question with the pick but for a different reason than usual.  It says here Khan’s move to 140 was wisely tactical.  Given his size, he was inevitable for Jr. Welterweight anyways but rising now makes sense for a few reasons.  The most prominent is another British draw in the 140 lb. ranks: Ricky Hatton.  Khan beating Kotelnik sets up a possible stadium fight which could break box office records in British Isle.

The other reason the move is wise is because he leaves a more dangerous class behind.  Lightweight right now is deeper than Jr. Welterweight and possesses more physical threats.  Khan isn’t looking for a Prescott rematch and Edwin Valero might be suicide; Juan Diaz might be the safest fight for him which doesn’t say much for safety.  Jr. Welterweight has plenty of foes with less chance of a first round blast, men like Kotelnik, Timothy Bradley, and even another Brit in Witter before he’d have to worry about someone as dangerous as World Champion Manny Pacquiao.  This is well calculated.

It’s also at home.  The fans at the M.E.N. Arena in Manchester will be coming to see Khan win and, while it can be expected to be close and even debatable at the end, Khan’s superior speed and activity will allow him to edge enough rounds for a decision win and his first major belt.    

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com