By Cliff Rold
Sometimes a fight alone is enough. Most of the time, a good story goes a long way to making a fight into an event. This weekend’s big Welterweight contest falls short of the event threshold but the question marks, the narratives, around the bout provide it an air of anticipation.
The whole young, fast, punchers going head to head thing?
Yeah, that works too.
Let’s go to the report cards.
The Ledgers
Andre Berto
Age: 27
Title/Previous Titles: WBC Welterweight (2008-Present, 5 Defenses)
Height: 5’8 ½
Weight: 145 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 145.7 lbs.
Hails from: Winter Haven, Florida
Record: 27-0, 21 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #2 at Welterweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 6-0, 3 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 4 (Steve Forbes, Luis Collazo, Juan Urango, Carlos Quintana)
Vs.
Victor Ortiz
Age: 24
Title/Previous Titles: 1st Title Fight
Height: 5’9
Weight: 146 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 142.15 lbs.
Hails from: Oxnard, California
Record: 28-2-2, 22 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #10 at Jr. Welterweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 0-1, 1 KOBY including interim title fights
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Nate Campbell, Vivian Harris)
Pre-Fight: Speed – Berto A; Ortiz B+
Pre-Fight: Power – Berto B; Ortiz B+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Berto B; Ortiz B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Berto B+; Ortiz C
So what are the storylines here? There’s the whole ‘when is Berto going to step up his competition thing.’ Combine it with ‘is Berto’s chin of elite quality’ question. This weekend the answers might be ‘now’ and ‘we might know more by Sunday.
There’s also the ‘is Ortiz mentally shot after quitting against Maidana’ cloud, the wonder of whether he thinks glory is worth getting hit “like this.” It’s important to wonder because the speed of Berto insures anyone who faces the 2004 Haitian Olympian is getting hit.
What might be striking this weekend is that Ortiz is likely to look slightly bigger in the ring this weekend. Despite moving up in weight for this contest, Ortiz should be the bigger Welterweight in the ring. The speed favors Berto but Ortiz is a little more fluid and, with timing, could offset that. If he comes out aggressive, he can hurt Berto early and light a fuse in the ring.
What happens if Berto gets hurt…and survives to hurt Ortiz right back? That’s the greatest point of intrigue here. Fans know Berto can endure in a war. He overcame a genuinely scary moment versus Cosme Rivera, endured a prolonged war with Luis Collazo. No one has seen a breaking point for Berto yet.
The same is not true for Ortiz. In his memorable war with Marcos Maidana, Ortiz looked over the edge and blinked. He hasn’t looked the same in five fights since as he did in the run up to Maidana. Part of that has been a concentration on boxing.
Part is also what looks like Ortiz having a Maverick moment.
Remember, in Top Gun, when Maverick was having trouble engaging after the whole got Goose killed thing? This weekend, we find out if Ortiz can be Ice’s wingman.
The Pick
It’s not going out on a limb to suggest he can’t but desperation can be a powerful incentive. Ortiz has his back to the wall, and Ortiz knows the world is wondering what’s inside him. Those are powerful motivators. Heavyweight Vitali Klitschko heard the questions about his heart for years after sitting out late against Chris Byrd with a shoulder injury. It made him tougher, more professional, better.
The jury might be out on Ortiz but the assumption of a Berto win feels carried away this weekend. Berto might have survived his war, but he was warring with a Collazo who was no puncher. Maidana is a different sort of animal. Berto has been caught by fighters with less speed, and pop, than Ortiz and Ortiz has better range. If he comes out boxing smart, he can play the counter puncher. Berto, whose head movement remains a liability, is going to be more of a target than Ortiz will.
All that considered, this corner goes with Ortiz in the mild upset, a sudden stoppage in a bit of a chess match sometime between the fourth and eighth rounds.
Report Card Picks 2011: 9-3
Cliff’s Notes
There are two other fights of interest this weekend on U.S. airwaves…Haven’t seen enough of undefeated Paul McCloskey (22-0, 12 KO) to feel like an honest assessment came be made of his prospects this weekend. What has been seen indicates Amir Khan (24-1, 17 KO) is rightly installed the favorite to retain his WBA Jr. Welterweight belt but McCloskey doesn’t look incapable of an upset…On Showtime, if Orlando Salido (34-11-2, 22 KO) upsets Juan Manuel Lopez (30-0, 27 KO), it would be as shocking as any result in recent memory. Salido is an honest broker in the ring. Lopez is honestly better than him by quite a bit. All three fights should be quite watchable anyways.
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com