By Lyle Fitzsimmons

There a couple things I’ve always promised myself.

Same goes for bowling. I consider myself a decent bowler, but If I ever was lucky enough to string together 12 strikes, I’d unlace my shoes, put down my beer and never set foot in another alley.

Problem is, I’ve never followed that advice when it’s come to boxing.

Though I probably hit my high prediction watermark a few years ago when I said – on the eve of 2011 – that Andre Ward would prove to be that year’s best fighter, it hasn’t stopped me from trying to replicate the success in each of four tries since. And, needless to say, I’ve never been nearly as prescient.

Which once again leaves me with the final-column-of-December task of having to recap the claims I made at this time last year, when I was sure I knew precisely what would happen in 2015.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present Fitz’s Hits and Misses – Edition 5.

Comeback of the Year

The 12/14 Pick: Andre Ward
The 12/15 Reality: Nonito Donaire
The Grade: C

I still love Andre Ward. And I still think his return to blitz Paul Smith in nine rounds – considering he’d not been in a ring in more than 18 months – was as impressive as any when it comes to comebacks.

But there’s got to be more than just one fight.

So, when quantity is factored in alongside quality, the winner becomes Nonito Donaire.

No, I’m not a huge believer in the Filipino and I think his reality is far closer to what’s been revealed by Guillermo Rigondeaux and Nicholas Walters than anything he’s shown since. Nevertheless, if you’d have told me at the end of the October 2014 beatdown from Walters that Donaire, now 33, would return to even possess the WBO’s paper title at 122 pounds, I’d have probably laughed in your face.

Yet there he sits after three 2015 wins. And here I sit with my first helping of crow.

Upset of the Year

The 12/14 Pick: Khan W 12 Mayweather
The 12/15 Reality: Fury W 12 Klitschko
The Grade: Incomplete

This time last year, there were certainties in life.

Republicans would disagree with Democrats. Duke fans would feud with North Carolina fans. And Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao would never share a boxing ring.

With that the case, I felt fairly confident in saying that Money would instead choose a high-profile match with Khan, whose luxury ship had nearly crossed his wake a couple times in 2014, only to be detoured by an Argentine frigate named Maidana.

Not only was it going to happen, in fact, but Khan – and not Pacquiao, Maidana or anyone else – would be able to translate the press conference blueprint into actual in-ring action on the way to a 12-round majority decision over the sure-fight first ballot Canastota inductee.

Looks a little dumber now. But if Floyd comes back and picks Amir, I’ll still say it happens.

Until then, though, the idea of a heavyweight who hadn’t lost in 11 years nearly getting whitewashed by a brash, untested Englishman stands head and shoulders above all else as my year’s biggest shock.

Knockout of the Year

The 12/14 Pick: Stiverne KO 7 Wilder
The 12/15 Reality: Alvarez KO 3 Kirkland
Grade: F

Well, at least this fight happened. But while some would say I’m guilty of underestimating the undefeated Wilder, what I’m probably more culpable for is overestimating the pedestrian Stiverne.

Two wins over Chris Arreola had me thinking he was more than capable of chopping down a 6-foot-7 pretender who’d feasted on the likes of Malik Scott. Once they got in the ring, though, it quickly became clear he had few answers when the foe did anything other than attack in a predictable straight line.

Meanwhile, though it was a match solely made to make Alvarez look good, the Mexican redhead still managed to make an impact with a surgically brutal elimination of a rugged, but limited Texan.

Fight of the Year

The 12/14 Pick: Cotto-Alvarez
The 12/15 Reality: Vargas-Miura
The Grade: C

It was Mexico vs. Puerto Rico, in the form of two guys comfortable with combat.

But while Cotto and Alvarez did provide 36 minutes of perfectly watchable main event action, it was nowhere near the level to which the breathless hype preceding the opening bell had ascended.

And when jab came to hook, it was far exceeded by an undercard bout that yielded more twists and turns that a YMCA Zumba studio.

When the time comes for rematches, feel free to ask for Mexico vs. Japan. Because even at three-quarters speed, they’re more entertaining than most at 110 percent.

Fighter of the Year

The 12/14 Pick: Wladimir Klitschko
The 12/15 Reality: Canelo Alvarez
The Grade: F

Sometimes, all you can do is grimace.

And when I go back and read what I wrote about then then heavyweight king this time last year, I do that – and then some.

The forecast of a wide decision victory over Bryant Jennings in April was dead-on accurate, but rather than unifying the division with a subsequent outclassing of Stiverne, the Ukrainian wound up setting his reputation back a decade with the stylistic nightmare against Fury.

It was ample fodder for those claiming he’d been overrated all along, and unless a rematch provides a quick, violent end, it’s probably a setback from which his aura will never completely recover.

This week’s title-fight schedule:

TUESDAY
IBF junior flyweight title -- Tokyo, Japan
Javier Mendoza (champion/No. 4 IWBR) vs. Akira Yaegashi (No. 8 IBF/No. 5 IWBR)
Mendoza (24-2-1, 19 KO): Second title defense; First fight outside Mexico
Yaegashi (22-5, 12 KO): Tenth title fight (5-4); Held titles at 105 and 112 pounds
Fitzbitz says: The champion is younger and seems more powerful, but he doesn't have a resume that reads quite like the challenger's. That'll be the difference. Yaegashi by decision

WBO junior bantamweight title -- Tokyo, Japan
Naoya Inoue (champion/No. 1 IWBR) vs. Warlito Parrenas (No. 1 WBO/No. 38 IWBR)
Inoue (8-0, 7 KO): First title defense; Three KOs in three title fights (19 rounds)
Parrenas (24-6-1, 21 KO): First title fight; Eighth fight in Japan (6-1, 6 KO)
Fitzbitz says: Parrenas has clearly convinced some people that he belongs, but you can be sure that far more people are hoping he'll prove something other than a superfight impediment. Inoue in 6

THURSDAY
IBF mini flyweight title -- Osaka, Japan
Katsunari Takayama (champion/No. 2 IWBR) vs. Jose Argumedo (No. 8 IBF/No. 19 IWBR)
Takayama (30-7, 12 KO): Third title defense; Held IBF/WBC/WBO titles at 105 pounds
Argumedo (15-3-1, 9 KO): First title fight; First fight outside Mexico
Fitzbitz says: Takayama isn't exactly Roman Gonzalez 2.0, but he's been good enough to handle most foes at 105 pounds and that reality shouldn't change here. Takayama by decision

WBA super featherweight title -- Tokyo, Japan
Takashi Uchiyama (champion/No. 1 IWBR) vs. Oliver Flores (No. 6 WBA/No. 78 IWBR)
Uchiyama (23-0-1, 19 KO): Eleventh title defense; Nine KOs in 11 title fights
Flores (27-1-2, 17 KO): First title fight; First fight in Japan
Fitzbitz says: The champion is home, he's good, he's streaking and he's facing a guy computerized rankings suggest has no business being near him. Uchiyama in 3

WBA light flyweight title -- Tokyo, Japan
Ryoichi Taguchi (champion/No. 11 IWBR) vs. Luis de la Rosa (No. 7 WBA/Unranked IWBR)
Taguchi (22-2-1, 9 KO): Second title defense; Twenty-third fight in Tokyo (20-1-1)
De la Rosa (24-5-1, 14 KO): First title fight; Second fight outside Colombia (0-1)
Fitzbitz says: Challenger is probably more qualified than a 3-4 record in his last seven fights might suggest, but probably not qualified enough to become a champion. Taguchi by decision

WBO mini-flyweight title -- Nagoya, Japan
Kosei Tanaka (champion/No. 7 IWBR) vs. Vic Saludar (No. 4 WBO/No. 63 IWBR)
Tanaka (5-0, 2 KO): First title fight; Third fight scheduled for 12 rounds (2-0)
Saludar (11-1, 9 KO): First title fight; First fight outside the Philippines
Fitzbitz says: The 20-year-old is the latest in a recent run of Asians who've become champions while relative pro novices. And while Saludar is rugged, he's not quite as special. Tanaka by decision

Last week’s picks: None

2015 picks record: 88-25 (77.8 percent)
Overall picks record: 727-248 (74.5 percent)

NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body's full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA "world championships" are only included if no "super champion" exists in the weight class.

Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.