By Cliff Rold

If the thousands of free condoms handed out to Olympic athletes this year are any indication, even the sourest of Olympic experiences are expected to end with a smile.

Maybe even a smoke. 

After all, one smoke won’t hurt.  There’s a solid four years left before another Olympics and the multi-cultural assortment of ‘drunk eyes’ on global display at the closing ceremonies in Beijing indicate that even the most devoted athletes know it.  Everyone looked like they were having a good time, but the biggest winners wore their smiles just a little brighter.  Winning and losing at the Olympics is high stakes from end to end and the sting of losing carries lingering bite.

The hardest losses sometimes come with the burden of ghosts past.  Events particular countries have excelled in over time become events they are expected to succeed at in perpetuity.  Winning breeds tradition and expectation. 

U.S. Olympic Boxing is a powerful tradition.  Even after the meager showings since 1992, the U.S. has still won more Boxing Medals, and more Gold Medals, than any country on Earth over the course of Olympic history.  Tradition is why a sport barely eligible for the sports page most days received copious pre-Games coverage and shamed catcalls throughout.

This year was worse than 2004 and not just in Medal count.  It was worse in terms of the failure to meet expectation.  In 2004, Light Heavyweight Andre Ward, Middleweight Andre Dirrell and Super Heavyweight Jason Estrada were seen as the sole bright lights on an otherwise young and underwhelming team.  Of the three, only Ward was seriously expected to compete for Gold as an underdog pick for the honors and only the quarters-eliminated Estrada truly disappointed.  The careful, steady management of almost every member of that team in the pros underlines what a lot of work in progress they were seen as in Athens.

2008 was going to be different.  On paper, it should have been and it is hard to figure a single Bronze Medal being the team’s only honors.  That Bronze winner, Heavyweight Deontay Wilder, met expectations as the Bronze was seen as the best he could probably hope for.  The Gold chase was to be in the hands of defending 2007 World Amateur champions Rau’shee Warren (Flyweight) and Demetrius Andrade (Welterweight) with Luis Yanez (Light Flyweight), Gary Russell Jr. (Bantamweight) and Raynell Williams (Featherweight) all talented enough to Medal. 

Destiny has different illusions to fulfill.  It was what it is.

And yet, there is reason to be excited about this crop.  Much has been written about the negatives of Amateur Boxing in the states, but it’s not all bad.  For USA Boxing’s attempts to recruit and draw a silver lining from the clouded results in China there are positive signs of rebuilding.  Of the seven fighters eliminated before the medal rounds, two lost by single points (Warren, Yanez) and two by two (Andrade and Williams, both with high controversy).  Three lost to eventual Gold Medal round participants (Estrada, Yanez, Williams), and Estrada’s second-round loss came to eventual Gold Medalist at Middleweight, James Degale.  In 2004, the team had only one more Quarterfinalist than the 2008 squad but the exit losses were by decidedly larger margins even factoring in the more liberal scoring in 2004.  A little better luck with the judges and this team could easily have been a success story.  That’s sellable.   

There are also some good signs in the form of fighters who couldn’t make the Beijing Squad.  Already some of the fighters who didn’t make the Olympic team, for instance Middleweights Fernando Guerrero (9-0, 9 KO) and Daniel Jacobs (8-0, 8 KO), are off to sensational pro starts after falling to Estrada at the Olympic trials. 

Also encouraging, as was the case before the Games, the class of 2008 might, again ‘on paper,’ have the best professional potential of any U.S. Olympic team since 1996.  The Olympics has always been a birthplace of tomorrows contenders, champions and greats and, results to the contrary, this year was no different for America.

1996 gave the sport Floyd Mayweather, Antonio Tarver, Eric Morel and Fernando Vargas with David Reid and David Diaz turning in solid careers as well.  What can 2008 be expected to give?

In terms of strong bets for future World championships, Warren, Yanez, Andrade and Williams all displayed the physical tools for the job.  So too does Russell despite his failure to make weight prior to his first bout.  Estrada and Lightweight Sadam Ali both should at least be able to move into contention and, with Southern California and New York backgrounds respectively, will have geographic market advantages in their favor. 

The two X-factors come at Light Welterweight and Heavyweight.  17-year old Javier Molina left the Games in the first round and will have tough decisions ahead.  2012, and a serious chance for Gold, are possible.  However, the experience of Medal favorite Warren’s second-time first round exit could act as a prohibitory influence.  Molina has yet to fully mature, and didn’t seem particularly strong yet.  A professional turn would likely have to be done with caution and patience.

Then there is Wilder.  The Heavyweight Bronze Medalist has the benefit of being big.  America is dry in terms of recognizable young Heavyweights right now.  Given his Medal and the press he picked up over the last few weeks, Wilder is almost undoubtedly the most famous young American Heavyweight on the landscape before his first chance to roll without headgear. 

None of that undoes the problem that eventually resulted in his semi-finals elimination.  He’s still green and makes learners mistakes in the ring.  He’s also not as wide as he is tall.  Standing 6’7, his frame allowed him to make the 200 lb. range of the Heavyweight (not to be confused with Olympic Super Heavyweight) limit.  Wilder possesses solid speed, power, coordination and an excellent jab.  If he can keep the speed with an extra twenty pounds or so, and is managed wisely, Wilder’s professional upside could be impressive. 

The Olympics itself is not something everyone happily anticipates but they always produce stories in Boxing to get excited about going forward.  This year was no different for Team USA no matter the end results produced.

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Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com