2 Networks, 1 Marquez, The Six: Pre-Fight Report Card
By Cliff Rold
With turkey certain to still be digesting for some, boxing readies a full plate of action for the weekend. There are big fights just about everywhere in the world this weekend. Fight fans in the U.S. get to be the most gluttonous.
Showtime goes off first (9:00 PM EST) and the impatient will already have a clue as to what lies ahead there. The results will be somewhere online for what some anticipate as a potential Fight of the Year, followed by live action from, arguably, the best Super Middleweight in the world. Four of that division’s top ten will be on display as the preliminary rounds of the “Super Six” tournament come to a close.
Having the best fight (potentially) does not mean the most significant. HBO (9:45 PM EST), on paper, can claim that nod. Fights don’t happen on paper of course.
Predictions do.
Let’s go the report card.
The Ledgers
Juan Manuel Marquez
Age: 37
Title: World/WBA/WBO Lightweight (2009-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Titles: IBF Featherweight (2003, 1 Defense); WBA/IBF Featherweight (2003-06, 3 Defenses); WBC Jr. Lightweight (2007-08, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’7
Weight: 134 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 135 lbs.
Hails from: Mexico City, Mexico
Record: 51-5-1, 37 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 9-3-1, 3 KO
(11-3-1, 5 KO including interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 10 (Agapito Sanchez, Alfred Kotey, Daniel Jimenez, Robbie Peden, Manuel Medina, Derrick Gainer, Orlando Salido, Marco Antonio Barrera, Joel Casamayor, Juan Diaz)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 4 (Freddie Norwood, Chris John, Manny Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather)
Vs.
Michael Katsidis
Age: 30
Title/Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 134.75 lbs.
Hails from: Queensland, Australia
Record: 27-2, 22 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #1 at Lightweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 0-1, 1 KOBY (4-1, 2 KO, 1 KOBY including interim title fights)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Jesus Chavez)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Joel Casamayor, Juan Diaz)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Marquez B; Katsidis B
Pre-Fight: Power – Marquez B+; Katsidis A
Pre-Fight: Defense – Marquez B+; Katsidis D+
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Marquez A; Katsidis B+
Based on the stakes, this HBO main event stands as the most important fight of the weekend. How it all comes together between the strands remains to be seen. A legitimate World Champion facing his leading contender is never a bad thing; Katsidis being the leading contender might be indicative of a Lightweight class needing rebuilding.
That doesn’t mean the Aussie-based brawler doesn’t have a chance. With youth on his side, and proven power, Katsidis’s aggression could wear on the aging legs of Marquez if he can get into the second half of the fight. Of course, the prescription was the same when Katsidis faced Joel Casamayor for the title. Age favored him even more; there was less wear on him. Katsidis turned out to be Casamayor’s last great win.
Marquez’s counter-punching and able jab should allow him to touch Katsidis whenever he wants. The Mexican’s chin is firmer and he gets hit less than his challenger. The big question, the intrigue, comes from a place all Marquez fights will find those elements from here out. It comes from the question of whether this Saturday will be the night Marquez gets old?
Age is no factor in the most anticipated fight of the week. Could anticipation be a bit too high though? Might fans be setting themselves up for a disappointment?
Carl Froch
Age: 33
Titles: None
Previous Titles: WBC Super Middleweight (2008-10, 2 Defenses)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 167.05 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 166.75 lbs.
Hails from: Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom
Record: 26-1, 20 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #4 at Super Middleweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 3-1, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 3 (Robin Reid, Jean Pascal, Jermain Taylor)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Mikkel Kessler)
Vs.
Arthur Abraham
Age: 30
Current Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF Middleweight (2005-09, 10 Defenses)
Height: 5’10
Weight: 167.2 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 162.9 lbs.
Hails from: Berlin, Germany (Born in Armenia)
Record: 31-1, 25 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #6 at Super Middleweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 11-0, 7 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 2 (Raul Marquez, Jermain Taylor)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Froch B; Abraham B
Pre-Fight: Power – Froch B+; Abraham A+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Froch B-; Abraham B+
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Froch A; Abraham B
This battle of punchers, both coming off their first loss, screams war on paper. Defense could prove the difference in the contest, could make this shockingly one sided to the surprise of many.
Or not.
Abraham gets hit far less than Froch, and appears to hit harder when he opens up, but the taller and longer Froch could make that work to his advantage. Froch is a better boxer than he is credited for, and not a bad body puncher. If he can keep close enough to land the left under the high guard of Abraham, ripping to the body, and then bring the right over the top, Abraham may not have the room he needs for his left.
It works in Froch’s favor that fans have seen him confronted with, and weathering, adversity. While Froch lost to Kessler last time out, it was nip/tuck all the way. Abraham saw real adversity for the first time in years against Dirrell and got himself disqualified out of frustration and desperation. Can Froch, whose style is both physical and awkward, frustrate Abraham again? Might a war of words and bad blood between the two feed into that?
The answers will be known by the time the American half of this doubleheader kicks off.
Andre Ward
Age: 26
Title: WBA Super Middleweight (2009-Present, 1 Defense)
Height: 6’1
Weight: 168 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 167.85 lbs.
Hails from: Oakland, California
Record: 22-0, 13 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #1 at Super Middleweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 2-0
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 1 (Mikkel Kessler)
Vs.
Sakio Bika
Age: 31
Title/Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’0
Weight: 168 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 167.65 lbs.
Hails From: Sydney, Australia (Born in Cameroon)
Record: 28-4-2, 19 KO
BoxingScene Rank: #10 at Super Middleweight
Record in Major Title Fights: 0-1-1
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat/Draw: 3 (Markus Beyer, Joe Calzaghe, Lucian Bute)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Ward A; Bika B
Pre-Fight: Power – Ward B; Bika B+
Pre-Fight: Defense – Ward A; Bika C
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Ward A; Bika B
While this one was not high on anyone’s must-see list, it is commendable for its happening. As a fight outside the tournament, Ward is guaranteed to advance in the “Super Six” as the lead seed win or lose. All he can do here is enter the final four wounded, and without his belt.
That’s what Bika will hope for anyways.
Bika will have to bring more game than he has in previous contests with the elite. The awkward puncher made a title shot at Calzaghe competitive but never really challenged. Bute boxed him silly. Ward will enter knowing what has come before. Some fighters might feel pressure to outperform the previous notable foes of a guy like Bika.
Ward is notable because he’s not that type of fighter. His maturity, from the amateurs to the pros, is what stands out. That and the ability to adapt to every style, to game plan efficiently, to behave in the ring as a professional.
All of those things are positive not only for the Bika fight but as the “Super Six” roars towards the elimination rounds.
The Picks
This is a weekend where favoring the favorite is the wisest choice. Marquez should carve Katsidis up en route to a decision or late stoppage. Ward should win about nine rounds of a decision over Bika. Stranger things than upsets have happened in fights like these, but strange is unlikely this weekend.
The nail biter is Froch-Abraham. The vacant WBC belt is going to end up on someone’s waist and, given their most recent performances, Froch is seen as more live here than he would have been a year ago. That’s a sucker bet.
Here’s the problem.
Froch isn’t particularly mobile and Froch gets hit. He gets hit quite a lot. Fighters who get hit are in big, big trouble against Abraham. Abraham will start slow, as he usually does, and Froch will throw at what is available. Sometime around the fourth round, a wide open Froch is going to start eating Abraham’s left hook. The fight should be over shortly after that.
Abraham by stoppage inside five rounds.
Cliff’s Notes…
The Marquez-Katsidis undercard on HBO is going to be fun but the favorites are prohibitive for a reason…Celestino Caballero (34-2, 23 KO) shouldn’t have much trouble with Jason Litzau (27-2, 21 KO), despite moving up to Jr. Lightweight for the fight…The Panamanian’s biggest problem might be if he looks good winning. The best of the Featherweights don’t need more reasons to duck him in 2011, do they?...If there is going to be an upset this weekend, it will come in the WBC Welterweight title tilt…Andre Berto (26-0, 20 KO) is the pick to retain his belt but challenger Freddy Hernandez (29-1, 20 KO), despite a gap in skills and speed, can crack…Berto’s chin remains suspect…One last pick for the week: far from U.S. TV, look for rising Filipino Flyweight Milan Melindo (22-0, 7 KO) to pick up his best win to date by decisioning former Jr. Flyweight titlist Carlos Tamara (21-1, 5 KO). Melindo is one to watch among the littlest men.
Report Card Picks 2010: 31-12
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com