by Cliff Rold

Win and we all have something to look forward to.

The first is the task for former super middleweight champion Andre Ward: win. The latter is the prize for fans looking for the sort of showdown that 2016 so far lacks. Recently some very good fights were added to the slate, but the best of them just sounds very good.

We’re talking the sort of showdown that feels special; the sort of showdown that might seal the winner’s place one day in the Hall of Fame.

That might not be the same as exciting. Ward fights don’t tend to remind folks of rock ‘em, sock ‘em robots. Matched well though and his fights can have drama. Showdowns with Carl Froch and Chad Dawson, going in, had boxing fans talking.

A showdown with unified light heavyweight titlist Sergey Kovalev will have them taking sides. Ward, largely inactive due to outside the ring issues since the Dawson win in 2013, is nearing what appears the toughest fight of his career. He was a favorite heading into Froch and Dawson. Against the former he looked too skilled. Against the latter, skill and weight were issues.

It played out to the chalk.

Against Kovalev, no matter who the odds eventually make a favorite if any, it will be as pick ‘em a fight at the elite level as can be made in the sport.

Standing in Ward’s way: Cuba’s Sullivan Barrera.

A product of that nations rich amateur history, Barrera defected to the US and reaches the opportunity to make the most of that risk after nearly seven years as a professional. Can Barrera derail what might become, for at least hardcore fans, the most anticipated clash of the year?     

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Andre Ward
Age: 32
?Current Title: None
Previous Titles: WBA Super Middleweight (2009-15, 6 Defenses); WBC Super Middleweight (2011-13, 1 Defense); TBRB/Ring/Lineal Super Middleweight (2011-15, 2 Defenses)
Height: 6’0
Weight: 174 ¾ lbs.
?Hails from: Oakland, California
Record: 28-0, 15 KO
Rankings: #3 (BoxRec)
Record in Major Title Fights: 7-0, 1 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 4 (Mikkel Kessler TD11; Sakio Bika UD12; Arthur Abraham UD12; Carl Froch UD12; Chad Dawson TKO10)

Vs.

Sullivan Barrera
?Age: 34
Current/Previous Titles: None
Height: 6’2
Weight: 174 ½ lbs.
?Hails from: Miami, Florida (Born in Cuba)
Record: 17-0, 12 KO
Rankings: #7 (ESPN)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 1 (Jeff Lacy TKO4)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Ward A; Barrera B
Pre-Fight: Power – Ward B; Barrera B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Ward A; Barrera B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Ward A; Barrera B

Ward’s inactivity raises question marks but little else does. He’s seen live fire only once since a 2013 win over Edwin Rodriguez. That live fire didn’t count for much. Opponent Paul Smith didn’t come in his best shape and didn’t have offense to offer.

Barrera will be coming to win.

Barrera doesn’t score a lot of early stoppages but his punches have had a heavy, wearing affect on several opponents to date. Karo Murat had been stopped only once before facing Barrera last year, that late by volume punching Nathan Cleverly. Barrera ground him down in five.

On tape, Barrera appears both slower and more hittable than Ward. He’s faced nowhere near the level of professional foe, though he has several quality amateur wins. For most he is a decided underdog.

Decided is not hopeless.

Barrera does a lot of things well. He isn’t a punch and pose fighter. Barrera looks to put them together. He goes to the body, works well off the jab, and uses both hands upstairs. Barrera isn’t uncomfortable bringing the fight and is a sneaky counter puncher at close range. Less positive, he often loops and pushes punches, putting himself in range to be countered. He has a modest edge in height over Ward; he can easily give that up.

Ward has proven quite effective at slowing down fighters who bring the fight to him. Against Smith, Ward boxed well for long stretches on the outside, jabbing and simply outboxing him. Smith wasn’t giving him much reason to do anything else.

When faced with someone who does, Ward is more than happy to use a variety of tactics to shut another man down. An occasional pressuring elbows to the back of the neck and extended clinches are not uncommon in a Ward fight. He knows all the tricks.

Increasing the frustration for foes, he’s also an accurate puncher who is very good at estimating the geography he needs. His timing is impeccable. Ward’s left hand might not produce highlight reel trips to an early shower, but it’s a steady and stinging weapon. Head, upper body, and foot movement make him a difficult target as he accentuates the notion of hitting without being hit.

Fighters like Ward, and a Bernard Hopkins who he sometimes evokes, have a way of sucking the offense out of the other man. Barrera may be coming to punch. The question for him will be whether he will keep punching once he starts missing and getting hit back? Can he blow off moments of frustration?

The Pick

Not many people think Barrera can. It says here his chances are better than predicted. Ward may have been in the gym, he may have been sparring, but one fight in two and a half years is going to produce some rust. Barrera, since Ward-Rodriguez, has fought eight times. If this were only a ten round fight, Barrera might be spry enough to steal a win.

Over the twelve scheduled rounds, it gets less likely. Even if Barrera gets off to a good start, Ward has more experience to know what to do with rounds. Barrera has never been past eight. Ward went nine in his last fight and hasn’t gone less than that since a walkover stoppage in 2009 prior to the Super Six tournament.

Barrera will acquit himself well but he doesn’t appear to have the power to stop Ward or the speed to beat him to the punch for seven of twelve rounds. Eventually, Ward takes over, takes away Barrera’s offense, and takes a big step towards something potentially special to look forward to.  

The pick is Ward by decision.

Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 8-5

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com