By Cliff Rold
HBO Commentary in the wake of Wladimir Klitschko’s Second Round TKO Loss to Corrie Sanders, March 8, 2003
Larry Merchant: Nevertheless, this is a SHOCK to the boxing world, and once again…
George Foreman: Nah, I think it’s a shock to your world Larry. I don’t think the boxing world is all that surprised.
HBO commentary following Lamon Brewster’s off the floor Fifth Round stoppage of Wladimir Klitschko, April 10, 2004
Jim Lampley: Wladimir’s chin makes Lennox Lewis look like granite.
Roy Jones Jr.: UhHahahaha.
Lampley: I didn’t think I’d ever see that.
Jones: It’s not so much of his chin as it is his heart though. He’s like a dog that can’t fight from the bottom.
HBO commentary after Wladimir Klitschko came off the deck twice in Round Five and once in Round Ten to decision then-undefeated Samuel Peter, September 24, 2005
Foreman: I didn’t know Klitschko could. Tonight he proved not only could he give it, he could take it.
Forget the belts.
The Heavyweight Championship of the World, the real one, the one that matters, belongs to one man. That man enters this Saturday’s massive title fight at the Imtech Arena in Hamburg, Germany, on the best run of his career. He has won 13 in a row, ten of them title fights, partially unified the class, picked up the Ring Magazine belt, and still the question remains:
Who is Wladimir Klitschko?
Until he is deposed, he remains the center of the story. His reign grows longer in years and fights and there are those beginning to wonder where he might shake out in the grad scheme of fistic history. Is he the fighter many in the boxing world still think can’t fight from the bottom? Or is he, given the experience of the first Peter fight and the momentum gathered in the run since, a matured, battle tested veteran ready to have his signature moment with a heated rival?
But is the rival really good enough in the ring to ask the question? After all, it is just as fair to ask:
Who is David Haye?
Emanuel Steward: What I like about David (Haye) is he comes with the winning mindset. Not like a lot of the opponents we have fought recently. We go back to the first Sam Peter fight, he was a tough guy. He came to win. And maybe one or two since then. But no one came in since Sam Peter with the mindset of David. - Wladimir Klitschko’s trainer, Emanuel Steward, speaking at the final pre-fight press conference, June 27, 2011
The former lineal World Cruiserweight Champion and current WBA beltholder at Heavyweight, like Klitschko, enters with momentum. In fifteen straight wins, he has been forced to go the route only twice. However, with a stoppage in his only defeat and some bad spills to the deck on the road to Klitschko, many wonder if the smaller man can match the strength of his boasting. Haye can talk the talk for sure, but what happens when Klitschko literally tries to close his mouth?
For the first time since Lennox Lewis-Mike Tyson in 2002, boxing has a Heavyweight championship fight that has been built to a fever pitch. Fans and pundits on both sides will surely say they know who the better man will be but, really, no one knows.
That we want to, need to, find out for sure is what makes the anticipation for Saturday so electric. Damn it all, we’ve got a real Heavyweight Championship fight.
Let’s go to the report card.
The Ledgers
Wladimir Klitschko
Age: 35
Title: Lineal/Ring World Heavyweight (2009-Present, 2 Defenses); IBF (2006-Present, 9 Defenses); WBO (2008-Present, 5 Defenses)
Previous Titles: WBO (2000-03, 5 Defenses)
Height: 6’6 ½
Weight: 242.6 lbs.
Average Weight – Last Five Fights: 243.55 lbs.
Hails from: Kiev, Ukraine
Record: 55-3, 49 KO, 3 KOBY
BoxingScene Rank: World Champion
Record in Title Fights: 16-2, 14 KO, 2 KOBY
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 7 (Chris Byrd, Ray Mercer, Sam Peter, Lamon Brewster, Sultan Ibragimov, Hasim Rahman, Ruslan Chagaev)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 2 (Corrie Sanders, Lamon Brewster)
Vs.
David Haye
Age: 30
Current Title: WBA Heavyweight (2009-Present, 2 Defenses)
Previous Title: Lineal World/Ring Magazine/WBC/WBA Cruiserweight (2007-08, 1 Defense); WBO Cruiserweight (2008)
Height: 6’3
Weight: 212.8 lbs.
Average Weight - Five Most Recent Fights: 212.5 lbs.
Hails from: London, United Kingdom
Record: 25-1, 23 KO, 1 KOBY
BoxingScene Rank: #2 at Heavyweight
Record in Title Fights: 5-0, 4 KO
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Defeated: 6 (Arthur Williams, Giacobbe Fragomeni, Jean Marc Mormeck, Enzo Maccarinelli, Nicolay Valuev, John Ruiz)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced in Defeat: 1 (Carl Thompson)
Grades
Pre-Fight: Speed – Klitschko B+; Haye A
Pre-Fight: Power – Klitschko A; Haye A-
Pre-Fight: Defense – Klitschko B+; Haye B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Klitschko B+; Haye B+
The weigh-in Friday was yet another indication of why this fight is anticipated. As both men stepped to the scale, ripped and ready, it was clear that both had paid the price in the gym on the way to the ring. That such a thing is commendable in the Heavyweight division in 2011 says a lot about the state of things. Haye’s weight disadvantage plays into his biggest overall advantage in the contest: speed.
How big is that physical advantage in the fight? Haye is faster than Klitschko for sure, but is he enough faster to make it count? The answer could mean everything.
No one in the current Heavyweight division combines hand and foot speed to explode through a target better than Haye right now. However, one aspect making Klitschko so lethal is how quick he can get to an opponent.
Klitschko’s jab might be the best in the sport, at any weight, and he can fire the right hand behind it with accuracy, and before an opponent sees it. His arms are so long that he can close gaps against men with greater raw speed through timing and the reality of superior reach.
If Klitschko can pin Haye under the jab, controlling his man at ring center, he negates his speed and wins. Haye must, and in a 24-foot ring will have room to, use lateral movement and risk some hard lead left hooks to make his speed count.
Reviewing an assortment of both men’s fights for this piece, it is noted that many of Klitschko’s foes make his work easier, make his jab more effective, because they stay right in front of him all night. No one really gave him angles. Byrd and Eddie Chambers tried a little, but they were so lacking in power their only hope was to outland Klitschko and steal rounds. They had to stay close, meaning they were hopeless. Klitschko’s use of learned clinching made their nights even longer.
Haye does not need to stay close. He can pick spots and looks for chances to explode and keep Klitschko from getting into rhythm. Then he must step to the side. His wisest choice will be to keep thing moving to Klitschko’s right.
Wait, some might say, isn’t that Klitschko’s money shot? It is, but he has to be set to throw it. If Haye is trailing to the right, Klitschko won’t be able to gauge the blow off chasing jabs. Alternately, if Haye moves to the left, he risks a lead left hook that can take him out in an instant. The risk is greater to the left.
The challenges for Klitschko are different. He has to deal with danger. Re-read what Steward said on Monday. It’s a bit unsettling on the eve of such a big fight. Even as he has spent most of the week touting his man, when is the last time the trainer of a notable champion was so candid about how bad his man’s foes have been (and they’ve been, too often, a sea of forgettable in a forgettable era).
That’s one of the biggest criticisms of Klitschko after all, the notion too many of Klitschko’s foes don’t show up, or were hapless in the first place. It goes hand in hand with the criticism that Klitschko is too timid even when a foe is ready to go. Nightmarish garbage like Sultan Ibragimov running like hell and Klitschko letting him, or being berated into going for the finish against Chambers, hover over the champion.
Haye, in his torrent of trash talk, has made issues of those things all along. They resonate because there is truth in the taunting.
However, even if Haye does it all right for most of the fight, a single mistake could mean the end and he can never relax. That’s because Klitschko can end his night with a single shot. Haye may have an edge in speed. Klitschko, for a single shot, is the more dangerous man. And he can do it with either hand. The right is the money punch but Klitschko’s left hook is nuclear when he releases it. Ray Austin and Chambers were out on contact when the left landed flush. Plenty of others, Calvin Brock and Chagaev among them, ate canvas at the end of a right hand.
Haye doesn’t have much in the way of similar highlights at Heavyweight and Klitschko is right to say Haye talked his way into the fight as much as fought his way in. That doesn’t mean Haye’s shown nothing at Heavyweight. Quite the opposite. He dropped sturdy John Ruiz hard and off the back foot with a right. Haye had the never before seriously hurt giant Valuev reeling with a left hook. He doesn’t hit harder than Klitschko.
Haye just hits hard enough to hurt Klitschko.
That gets to the real x-factor, the thing that makes this less the promise of a great fight and more about the chance to see a great ending.
Chins?
Both guys would fall far short on any list of great ones.
In four losses between the two of them, Klitschko has been stopped three times and Haye once. To each man’s credit, neither has ever finished on their back, never heard the referee toll ten. Still, they’ve seen their share of floor.
Which chin is worse?
Klitschko has been down more times but, to be fair, has also had many more fights. Haye has been the most hurt on any single shot. Early in his career, Super Middleweight/Light Heavyweight Lolenga Mock caught Haye on the temple with a shot and had him all sorts of rubbery legged. Haye recovered to score the stop but the chink in his armor was exposed.
Can anything be concluded from the fact that Klitschko has not been down since the first Peter fight while Haye has been down against Mormeck (en route to winning the Cruiserweight crown) and, unofficially, Monte Barrett?
Maybe, but probably not. Haye’s chin and legs have been sturdier as he aged and on both those occasions the knockdowns came after he slipped on ring paint. Barrett following up with a shot while Haye was on the deck, far more hurtful than the shot to the temple that initially sent Haye down.
Haye hasn’t been caught with a dead shot in a while.
Klitschko hasn’t been caught with much of anything in years. He’s mastered distance in the ring and, at least against the varying level of foes he’s had, has been able to control the incoming. Haye has improved his head movement and rides shots well. Klitschko is better defensively, but he hasn’t had his defense tested the way Haye is capable of since the Sanders fight.
And what of the trash talk? Will it have an impact on the fight? It remains to be seen but, so far, it is Klitschko more than Haye who has appeared angry and annoyed in public, Klitschko who has acted out of public character. We wait to find out whether a sleeping giant is awakened or just rattled.
Haye has won the war of words.
Heavyweight title fights are not rhetoric contests.
The Pick
To the benefit of those tuning in Saturday, Haye has more than words.
Even with his flaws and vulnerabilities, he is everything Klitschko has not been facing at Heavyweight. He is fast, he can smack, and he wants to win. Sure, he could rush in and get taken out, but it’s fair to recall Corrie Sanders didn’t take much of a shot either. He had more the fighter’s mentality; so did Brewster (the first time, before a detached retina and too many wars made him a shell in their rematch).
That counted.
Again, as he almost always is, the former Olympic Gold Medalist Klitschko is the better boxer. Haye is the better, or at least more natural, fighter. He is also a better counter puncher.
One caveat: Haye is not just a threat to score a knockout.
He is also a threat to be disqualified.
Haye has a bad habit of hitting behind the head and he also has scored a lot of shots while foes were on the floor (see his win over Giacobbe Fragomeni for instance). Against Klitschko, he cannot allow the bigger man to comfortably clinch and may flirt with infractions early. This fight isn’t going the route either way so, tactically, losing a point, even two, on the cards would be okay if it kept Klitschko uncomfortable. Haye would be wiser to use his slamming, free hand right to the face in the clinches to avoid turning the ref against him.
He’d also be wise to go to the body. Both men have underrated lefts to the face. Haye’s body attack is lethal and doesn’t get enough respect. Brewster undid Klitschko by staying to the ribs. Haye can’t go to the flanks for too long but he can make a point.
Ultimately, this is not quite a 50-50 fight. Wladimirs’s longer tenure at Heavyweight and the skill he brings with an obvious size advantage make it more like 70-30. Wladimir is favored to win and can do so at any time, with any one shot.
The thinking here is that he’ll be gone before he gets that shot off.
Look for a measured first round with both guys trying in spots to explode, and missing, before some rough stuff…then it’s a race to the finish. In a tough fight to call, where the first serious bomb probably wins, go with the fighter who possesses superior speed, lateral movement, and the ability to improvise angles.
The choice is Haye by stoppage sometime between the third and fifth rounds.
Report Card Picks 2011: 21-6
Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America. He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com
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