Is Gennady Golovkin's Future Only Now Emerging?

By Cliff Rold

Welterweight Errol Spence had the sort of break out performance last Saturday night that leads to both to instant excitement and trepidation. There is a fine line between a fighter who is genuinely the goods and one who looks it only to be bought into before the proof is fully in.

In this corner that means for every five thoughts matching Spence favorably with the full range of top welterweights, there is also that part of the brain that said, ‘don’t get carried away. That was a nice win over Chris Algieri but if you scored the Provodnikov fight against him he’s now 1-4 in his last five.’

Boxing and cynicism.

Bacon and eggs.

Ultimately the scale tipped heavily to just embracing the performance. Spence will have bigger fights but his upside has been apparent since he had to be robbed twice at the 2012 Olympics to send him packing. If one were betting on the future at welterweight, he’d be the best wager.

At only 26, boxing being what it is these days, welterweight is unlikely to be Spence’s final destination. A new wave of talent is emerging in the welterweight and Jr. middleweight divisions. As that talent matures, many of them will eventually make their way up the scale. It’s the way things work.

Barring a move up the scale that seems less likely with each passing fight, they will probably find Gennady Golovkin (34-0, 31 KO) waiting for them.

The WBA, IBO and IBF middleweight titlist is viewed, by overwhelming consensus, as the best 160 lb. fighter in the world. It’s a steep drop to number two in terms of public regard. He’s not, in a purely historical sense, the lineal kingpin of the division but that feels like so much formality. The last three men to hold that distinction (Sergio Martinez, Miguel Cotto, Saul Alvarez) haven’t appeared in any hurry to face him.

Most other titlists in the class haven’t been either.

For a while, Golovkin could be avoided in a purely economic risk/reward ratio. Strong ticket sales, improved television ratings, and public demand have eroded the argument. His pay-per-view numbers versus David Lemieux are the last line of business defense and one that Alvarez’s team is likely to make the final nudge past.

If it doesn’t happen this year, it probably will next.

Should we get to Alvarez-Golovkin, the Kazakh bomber will finally have the sort of big name that has eluded him to this point. Golovkin’s long stay at middleweight has made clear that his career accomplishments will largely be measured against that division. He’s in a position similar to Marvin Hagler when he was waiting for Hearns and Leonard or Bernard Hopkins when he was slotted in the 2001 middleweight tournament with a chance to face Felix Trinidad. Like Hagler and Hopkins, the dragons to be slain before the big names arrived were held in mixed regard.

For now, that makes Alvarez his equivalent to those names. Is that good enough?

It’s not clear yet whether it would be the sort of win that could truly cement Golovkin’s place in middleweight lore. The red headed icon of Mexico has yet to look great. His best wins are just barely nods over Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout and last year’s physical win over a Cotto who never had any business (or real intentions) of fighting at middleweight.

Alvarez is over the hurdle in terms of proving to be a very good fighter but he doesn’t have a win at middleweight, over a natural middleweight, to show off what his ceiling really is in that class.

Defending against welterweight Amir Khan next month doesn’t do anything to answer that either.

He has yet to show the sort of form in any class that makes him a commensurate challenge to a Hearns or Trinidad.

We may find ourselves after an Alvarez-Golovkin fight not far from where we are now: recognizing Golovkin as the master of his domain and wondering when the talent will arrive to truly test him. Of the current crop of middleweights intent on fighting at 160 lbs., Daniel Jacobs is probably the best fighter Golovkin could face and even that probably wouldn’t satisfy.

This Saturday’s IBF mandated match with Dominic Wade (18-0, 12 KO) would be a bit of an upset if it rose to more than mere formality. Those who love just seeing the Golovkin show won’t care but seeing great talent tested is always better than seeing it appear.

Alvarez might be the test but if he’s not then who is?

Maybe a look to the future finds something over the horizon. With all the talk of Alvarez-Golovkin, it might well be that that what we’re really waiting for is what few are thinking about just yet. Spence has yet to win a welterweight title but if he meets the hype at welterweight, how long would it be before more minds started to wander…and wonder.

It’s not to say Spence is going to one day emerge as the big threat to a middleweight Golovkin we’ve been waiting for. He’s just a possibility whose last performance is a fresh enough spur to question what could emerge. If not Spence, there is other young talent seemingly on the verge. Demetrius Andrade is getting active again at 154 lbs. and could quickly establish himself. Julian Williams is waiting for his first title shot and has the sort of quiet soundness that could make him a player for the long haul.

A reader offered, via Twitter, the name Erickson Lubin. The talented 20-year old is fighting at Jr. middleweight but he was born with the frame of a middleweight and his body will grow with age. He could be a candidate as well.

Maybe it’s moot to think ahead. Golovkin may finally get Alvarez and elect to pursue bigger men in higher weight classes should he win (and he will be a heavy favorite to do so whenever they face off). He’s stated a willingness for the ‘right’ fight in the past (i.e. not Andre Ward) but those proposals never seemed like more than one off’s.

There’s certainly nothing wrong with being the king of the middleweights. Carlos Monzon and Hagler never moved up. Hopkins didn’t until he was 40 and Jermain Taylor had got the middleweight title off him. Already 34, if Golovkin were going to grow out of the division, it would have happened by now. It might be fair to think of Golovkin in middleweight terms for good.

Based on his current form, and the field beneath him, the idea that Golovkin could still be reigning and waiting for opponents a couple years from now isn’t far fetched. If he is, the opponent that matters most might not be anyone under consideration right now.

It’s something to think about. It might be something to look forward to.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com