How Canelo Alvarez has evolved – and what it means for Christian Mbilli

After 21 years as a professional, and with Christian Mbilli in his sights, it would defy logic if Canelo Alvarez's best days were still to come.

Those days likely came at middleweight – the second Gennady Golovkin fight in particular – or during the subsequent run that saw him claim all four super middleweight belts.

Canelo, however, has evolved.

It could even be argued that he has evolved as well as almost any fighter in history. His defense has improved, his footwork remains among the best in the sport and his accuracy – if not his volume – has increased.

None of that guarantees Canelo will beat Christian Mbilli in Saudi Arabia on Saturday night, of course.

But there are noticeable trends in the Mexican superstar's work as he matures.

Throwing fewer punches

Canelo was a high-energy box-puncher when he made his name at junior middleweight and was perhaps at his most effective at 160lbs. His rematch victory over Golovkin is arguably the most complete performance of his career.

Back then, according to CompuBox statistics, he would regularly throw 45 to 50 punches per round.

His output dipped during his excursions to light heavyweight and, even in his most explosive performances at 168lbs, Canelo was averaging around 35 punches per round.

His accuracy has improved

Though his output has steadily declined, Canelo is enjoying greater success with the punches he does throw.

His accuracy at middleweight, again according to CompuBox, was regularly below 40 percent. In recent years at super middleweight, however, he has boasted a connect rate of 50 percent.

Though he may have stopped chasing opponents, he has learned to take his time and land punches where they hurt and where they slow his opponents down. Since moving up in weight, 83 percent of the power punches he has landed have been body shots.

He takes fewer punches

Canelo has become a master at disrupting his opponents' rhythm. Yes, he lost to Terence Crawford, but given "Bud's" brilliance, perhaps that defeat can be considered an outlier.

Across his last five bouts, his opponents have averaged an 18 percent connect rate. Compared to the 25 percent his rivals enjoyed at middleweight, there is an argument that Alvarez has improved defensively.

What can we conclude

Well, nothing definitive until we see how he performs against Mbilli in his first outing since the loss to Crawford.

Though the numbers suggest Canelo is taking fewer punches and landing with greater accuracy, we should also consider the level of opposition he has faced recently at 168lbs.

Take Crawford out of the equation and compare opponents such as Edgar Berlanga and John Ryder with Golovkin and Daniel Jacobs; there may be reasons beyond Canelo simply growing cuter for his elusiveness.

But there have unquestionably been adjustments to his style. Look back at his performances at 154 and 160lbs, for example, and the differences become more pronounced. Even the Canelo of 2021 – advancing behind a high guard and expertly cutting off the ring – was different from the fighter we have seen more recently.

His counters, particularly downstairs, take the wind from his rivals to such a degree they suddenly start thinking twice about whether to throw at all.  

Mbilli, who is a threat but yet to prove he's elite, will have his work cut out to prove that the Canelo of 2026 is no longer a master operator.