Miguel Cotto-Saul Alvarez: Pre-Fight Report Card

By Cliff Rold

There is some debate about how successful the promotion will be. There is no debate about fan hopes for what it will be in the ring.

This is the fight the most people wanted to see after Floyd Mayweather-Manny Pacquiao. They’re going to get it.

Both men looked cut and ready at the weigh-in, achieving the goal of coming at or below the catchweight of 155 lbs. That’s not to be confused with the actual middleweight limit of 160 or that both men say they don’t really care to be middleweights while fighting for the division’s historical crown.

Plenty has been said about that aspect of the affair. None of it is likely to detract from the actual match in the ring. Once the bell rings, we’re left with two of boxing’s bigger stars punching it out to see who the better man will be.

When that occurs, all the rest can be put aside until the final bell sounds on the night. It’s Puerto Rico versus Mexico, aging fighter versus ascending hopeful, Cotto versus Alvarez. 

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Miguel Cotto

Age: 35

Titles: Lineal/TBRB/Ring World Middleweight (2014-Present, 1 Defense)

Previous Titles: WBO Light Welterweight (2004-06, 5 Defenses); WBA Welterweight (2006-08, 4 Defenses); WBO Welterweight (2009, 1 Defense); WBA Super Welterweight (2010-12, 2 Defenses); WBC Middleweight (2014-15, 1 Defense)

Height: 5’7  


Weight: 153.5 lbs.

Hails from: Caguas, Puerto Rico



Record: 40-4, 33 KO, 2 KOBY



Record in Major Title Fights: 19-4, 16 KO, 2 KOBY


Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 19 (Cesar Bazan TKO11; Carlos Maussa TKO8; Lovemore N’Dou UD12; Randall Bailey TKO6; DeMarcus Corley TKO5; Ricardo Torres KO7; Paulie Malignaggi UD12; Carlos Quintana RTD5; Zab Judah TKO11; Shane Mosley UD12; Antonio Margarito TKO by 11, RTD9; Joshua Clottey SD12; Manny Pacquiao TKO by 12; Yuri Foreman TKO9; Ricardo Mayorga TKO12; Floyd Mayweather L12; Austin Trout L12; Sergio Martinez RTD10; Daniel Geale TKO4)

Vs.

Saul Alvarez

Age: 25

Title: None

Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); WBA/Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013)

Height: 5’9

Weight: 155 lbs.

Hails from: Juanacatlán, Sinaloa, Mexico

Record: 45-1-1, 32 KO


Record in Major Title Fights: 7-1, 4 KO

Rankings: All at 154 lbs. - #1 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring, ESPN, BoxRec)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 8 (Miguel Vazquez SD4, UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; Lovemore N’dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather L12; Erislandy Lara SD12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Cotto B; Alvarez B

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Cotto B+; Alvarez B+

In terms of speed and power, the bout appears close to even. Delivery is the biggest difference. Cotto is the more fluid of the two while Alvarez delivers his shots with deliberate authority. Working with Freddie Roach, we’ve seen Cotto appear as destructive as he has since his best career run between 2006-07. After surviving some scary moments against Ricardo Torres and DeMarcus Corley, Cotto went on a punishing run that saw him nearly scale the mountain at 147 lbs.

A loss to Antonio Margarito started a period of inconsistency for Cotto. He easily could have lost the fight to Joshua Clottey and there was plenty of debate about the outcome. He did lose to Manny Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather, and Austin Trout and got a surprisingly tough fight from Ricardo Mayorga.

Since the Trout loss in 2012, he’s won three straight but there is still a feeling we don’t know how good that run has been. Delvin Rodriguez was an opponent, Sergio Martinez was shot, and Daniel Geale was forced to his lowest weight in eight years. Is the Cotto resurgence for real?

Alvarez is the best opponent he’s had since Trout. Alvarez in fact beat Trout one fight removed from Trout-Cotto. Last year, Alvarez also eeked by the difficult Erislandy Lara, a superior test in the ring to anything Cotto has seen in years. What Alvarez didn’t do was offer much competition to Mayweather, a place where Cotto has one up on him. These common opponents might tell us a little about how each man does against tricky styles, but none of them presented the same style test at hand this weekend.

Defensively, both have shown decent head movement. Alvarez is a little better as a counter puncher but neither has ever seemed entirely comfortable in their transitions from offense to defense. Cotto, under Roach, has been better in that regard after years of being a fighter who was often either on defense or offense. Against Geale, he used his legs and head movement to set up shots. Of the two, Cotto may have the better footwork but he’s also be the easier man to hit over the course of a career.

In terms of intangibles, both have shown strong positives. Cotto has shown a vulnerable chin, but also resiliency when hurt several times. Alvarez, against Trout and Lara, had the maturity to stick to his game plan and not get frustrated. The judges favored his style even if plenty thought his foes had done enough to edge him out. The same wasn’t true against Mayweather and he never seemed to go for broke in that one. Cotto has the pop and experience to ask big questions of Alvarez. Is he ready to sell out to answer them? If he is, does the body of Cotto stand up to serious two-way action? He hasn’t been fought back seriously in years. We find out what happens when he is on Saturday night.

The Pick

In a fight between a 34-year old and 25-year old who appear somewhat equally matched, history says it comes down to this: if the younger man is really that good, he should win. If he’s suspect, he doesn’t. Losing to Mayweather doesn’t make anyone suspect. Losing to Cotto might raise some real questions. To date, Alvarez has shown a commendable willingness to fight the tough outs. Cotto (sans his avoidance of Gennady Golovkin) has usually been the same way. He doesn’t have a genuine statement win yet.

He’s not going to have a better chance to get one than this. 

Saturday we find out if Alvarez just another good fighter whose marketability exceeds his talent. He’s younger, bigger, and has nowhere near the miles on him that Cotto does. He’s had a solid beard outside of a bad buzzing against, ironically, Cotto’s brother many years ago. He’s never been hit by anything like this Cotto’s left hook.

If Cotto can catch Alvarez early, he could force the younger man to make mistakes and walk into more bombs. That’s where the veteran’s best chances will come; make Alvarez think and Cotto’s experience can work for him.

The thinking here is Alvarez can handle the hook if it lands and avoid enough of them to neutralize the weapon. His stiff jab, straight right, and wicked uppercut will slowly take over the fight and remind Cotto of his age. Sometime in the second half of the fight, it will be enough to earn a stoppage for Alvarez.   

Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 81-22

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com