By Dr. Peter Edwards

Every few months, a fighter comes along to capture the imagination of a starving boxing public.

Unfortunately for the sport of boxing, the next big thing usually becomes the next big bust. Or at least that's the usual trend over the last couple of years.

Every now and then, a fighter comes along to break "the next big bust" theory. Could Kelly Pavlik become that fighter? Maybe, or maybe not.

The next big thing is usually a fighter being pushed hard by one of the cable networks like HBO or Showtime. Remember heavyweight "Baby" Joe Mesi? Yeah that guy. After knocking out amateur standout DaVarryl Williamson in a single round in 2003, Mesi was hyped to the moon by HBO. He was dubbed the next heavyweight to make an impact. On the opposite end of the corner was Dominick Guinn. Another heavyweight HBO was pushing big in 2003. The network was showcasing both fighters in order to maneuver them towards an inevitable showdown.

In less than six months, heavyweight contender Monte Barrett exposed both fighters. He nearly derailed the unbeaten record of Joe Mesi by knocking him down and almost taking him out before losing a close ten round majority decision. Several months later, Barrett would not be denied by outhustling Guinn down the stretch of a ten round contest and winning a split decision.

Guinn was never the same fighter, and neither was Mesi. Guinn has lost four times since the Barrett meeting and is now viewed by many as nothing more than a capable journeyman. While Mesi is still undefeated to this day, he took bad beating in 2004 at the hands of cruiserweight turned heavyweight, Vassiliy Jirov. Mesi was knocked down three times in the final two rounds of the bout, barely making it out of the final round to win a close decision. Following the Jirov win, MRI tests revealed a subdural hematoma (bleeding on the surface of his brain). He was put on a medical suspension that kept him away from the ring for two years. He returned in 2006, winning six uninspiring straight bouts against no-hopers in the last 13 months.

In 2002, Vernon Forrest won back-to-back bouts over the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport, Shane Mosley. He was handsomely rewarded with a big HBO contract and viewed as a tricky boxer-puncher that possessed the tools to beat the best in the business. In 2003, he entered the ring in his first bout as an HBO fighter, against Ricardo Mayorga, and was knocked out in three rounds. An immediate rematch was put together and once again he lost to Mayorga, this time by decision. Like Mesi, he stayed on the sidelines while nursing a handful of injuries for almost two years. He returned in 2005, winning three straight bouts, including a decision win over Ike Quartey last August - who many felt was robbed of the win.

After his first win over Mosley, Forrest told HBO commentator Larry Merchant, "Shane Mosley was number one. I beat Shane Mosley so that makes me pound-for-pound number one." Merchant quickly quipped back, "just because you beat Tiger Woods, doesn’t make you Tiger Woods."

Merchant was right on the money in that classic exchange.

Mayorga, didn’t necessarily do any better in his career, but his unorthodox style and trash talking abilities certainly made him a lot of money, even in defeat. Following the wins over Forrest, he was being pushed as the "crazy power puncher" whom the entire welterweight division should fear. Light punching Cory Spinks beat him by a close majority decision only five months after the Forest rematch. Even with the loss to Spinks, he was still able to land huge paydays in his knockout losses to Felix Trinidad and Oscar De La Hoya. And another big payday is around the corner, if he ever comes to terms with Fernando Vargas for a September bout at a contract weight of 162-pounds.

Spinks received a lot of praise for the Mayorga win, but was knocked out a few fights later by Zab Judah. You know the rest and obviously can see the point I'm trying to make here. In the current era of boxing, fighters are badly overhyped. The hype is usually based on a single impressive win.

Edison Miranda reminds me of a much larger version of Ricardo Mayorga. A lot of mouth, a lot of punch, but very little technical skill or defense. He puts punches together a little better than Mayorga, but not by much. Like Mayorga, he can not fight going backwards, and Pavlik exploited his deficiencies before he stepped a single foot in the ring.

When they met last weekend, Pavlik immediately took the fight Miranda with close range combinations of power punches.  He pushed forward until Miranda was backed against the ropes and then he really let his hands go.

As they entered the sixth round, Miranda was already gassed. A hard right hand against the ropes almost took Miranda’s head off as another combination sent him down. If not for Miranda spitting out his mouthpiece to buy some extra seconds of time, Pavlik would likely ended things right there. Instead, Miranda was dropped for a second time and was able to make it to the next round. Pavlik saw that Miranda was never able to recover from the punishment in the sixth round and quickly put him away with missile-like combinations to close the show.

Let’s not take anything away from the kid. The win was very impressive. But, as usual, the media is getting carried away on a single win.  The same way they got carried away with Miranda’s first round knockout of middleweight Willie Gibbs on HBO.

Pavlik says that Miranda was nothing more than fighter who was overhyped by the media and to a significant degree he’s right. The same thing seems to be happening with Pavlik, who is a much better boxer-puncher than Miranda, but also has some serious defensive loopholes of his own. The kid could hit and take a hit, but also gets hit too much for his own well being. If not for his sturdy chin, he could have been the fighter to taste defeat because Miranda landed plenty of leather as well.

The Pavlik PR machine is moving full steam now. Promoter Bob Arum of Top Rank says Pavlik will be bigger than Oscar De La Hoya ever was. Pavlik has the potential to be big, but he doesn’t have the charisma or the looks to ever be as big as someone like De La Hoya. De La Hoya was one of the few fighters in the history of the sport to create a following among a demographic of fans who barely followed boxing.  Pavlik is not the kind of fighter to cross that line.

The boxing media is getting too carried away with this one. We all have high hopes for the kid, but to automatically peg him as a fighter to destroy Jermain Taylor is ridiculous.  Think Jeff Lacy. He punched and dominated his way through the super middleweight division until he ran into a roadblock called Joe Calzaghe, who badly dominated him for twelve rounds in their 2006 UK clash. Not only was Calzaghe labeled as a serious underdog, few gave him a prayer of lasting the distance. Nobody could have predicted such a domination of Lacy, but the media built him up as an unstoppable monster.  Prior to the bout with Lacy, Calzaghe was not necessarily impressive in the ring with his slap-punching style, but he decisively won his fights.

As history has shown, the public falls in love with punchers like Lacy. Pavlik has the perfect style to feed that love. Sometimes that love gets overblown and blinds many of us from the truth.