by David P. Greisman

Hope is a hot bath that has just had its stopper pulled. It is comforting but fleeting, draining away until the inevitable emptiness.

There is no more hope that Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr. will fight, not in 2010, at least. That plug was pulled weeks ago, hope edging closer each day to the abyss, struggling against the current but ultimately succumbing. The fight has gone down those proverbial tubes.

“I’m not really thinking about boxing right now,” Mayweather, coaching a charity basketball game Sunday, told the Associated Press. “I’m just relaxing. I fought about 60 days ago, so I’m just enjoying myself, enjoying life, enjoying my family and enjoying my vacation.”

That would have to suffice for the reason why Mayweather will not fight Pacquiao. It was an explanation that failed to explain, just as Mayweather turned down a Pacquiao fight without ever officially turning it down.

There had been subtle signs that this would be so.

Three weeks ago we were told negotiations for a fight between Pacquiao and Mayweather were over, that the hard part was done.

On the surface, this was progress.

Half a year ago the negotiations had sputtered out spectacularly. They had agreed on the money (a 50-50 split), a weight limit (welterweight), and the size of the gloves (8 ounces). They could not agree on drug testing. They would not agree on drug testing. It was a matter of ego that masqueraded as a matter of principle. Pacquiao went on to defeat Joshua Clottey. Mayweather went on to beat Shane Mosley.

Talk again turned to Pacquiao-Mayweather. This time, discussions would have to be different if the fight were to be made – THE fight, a bout pitting not only the two best welterweights in the world, but the two best fighters, pound-for-pound, of the past decade. Something would have to change. Strong stances would have to weaken. Egos would have to be put aside.

There was hope. How can you miss out on a chance to be in the biggest fight of your career? Of your generation? Of your sport? How can you miss out on a chance to make tens of millions?

They chose against it once. How could anyone make the same mistake twice?

Some reports came out a few weeks ago that this most recent round of negotiations had concluded successfully. All that remained now was Mayweather’s signature on the contract. The easiest element. The most essential element.

Those reports didn’t come from Mayweather’s camp, but from Pacquiao’s promoter, Bob Arum. Another report, however, warned that not everything had been agreed to. That kind of news wouldn’t have come from Arum, but from other sources close to the negotiations. That report portended trouble, and even if you weren’t inclined to believe it over those originating from Arum, there was still a simple but important issue:

Mayweather had not yet signed a contract.

Why announce that the fate of the fight was now in Mayweather’s hands unless Arum was waiting – keyword: waiting – for Mayweather to sign? It was but a public relations ploy, one designed not only to spotlight that Mayweather hadn’t yet put his signature on the contract, but to convince observers that Mayweather was the only obstacle remaining.

And so Arum waited. So did we. Hope took the form of cautious optimism: Mayweather will sign. He has to. Doesn’t he?

Arum’s company, Top Rank, soon placed a countdown clock on its website, ticking away the days, hours, minutes and seconds under the heading of “ ‘Money’ Time: Mayweather’s Decision.” The deadline: Saturday, July 17, 3 a.m. Eastern Time, midnight Pacific Time for those, like Top Rank and Mayweather, based out of Las Vegas.

Hope still floated, but there was a sinking feeling. Mayweather hadn’t signed in the past couple weeks. Why would he sign now?

Top Rank scheduled a stunt of a conference call for the moment the deadline passed.

The deadline, Arum explained, was merely when the exclusive negotiating period would end. The promoter would pursue matches pitting Pacquiao with other members of the Top Rank roster, perhaps a rematch with Miguel Cotto, perhaps a fight with Antonio Margarito. Those fighters would have 10 days to accept a bout with Pacquiao, which would be scheduled for Nov. 13.

If Mayweather were suddenly to accept the Pacquiao fight, that would take precedence. But only if a deal had not already been made for Pacquiao to face Cotto or Margarito.

Sliver of hope.

Mayweather was silent through all of this. He had essentially turned down the fight without saying yes or no. He had essentially turned down the fight without explaining why. And then the Associated Press asked.

“I’m not interested in rushing to do anything,” Mayweather told the AP.

Hopeless.

This second negotiating process had been set up to avoid making the same mistakes as the first time, when too many combustible elements involved caused the fight to implode. According to Arum, Top Rank spoke this second time to Pacquiao and then communicated with Mayweather through what amounted to a 21st century game of telephone. Top Rank spoke with a mediator – HBO Sports executive Ross Greenburg – who in turn talked to Mayweather’s adviser, Al Haymon, who then would speak with Mayweather.

Arum has not been shy in the past about communicating his separate displeasures with Greenburg, Haymon and Mayweather. This time he had no ill will toward the first two and no ire for Mayweather.

“Obviously the problem was that Floyd, for whatever reason, and I’m sure he has a valid reason, didn’t want to commit,” Arum said. Perhaps, Arum speculated, Mayweather was uncertain about fighting without his trainer and uncle, Roger Mayweather, whose criminal trial on assault charges is scheduled to begin in August. Such concerns on Mayweather’s end would be understandable, Arum said.

It was not a surprise that Arum played nice. He had already proven with Pacquiao-Clottey in March that Pacquiao could star in a large event and a successful pay-per-view without Mayweather. There was no need to underscore that point a second time. Such provocation could prevent Mayweather from ever stepping in the ring with Pacquiao. Arum could move on to Plan B without shutting the door completely on Plan A.

PR takes finesse. Arum was attempting to thread a needle.

Mayweather also knows how to play the game.

Keep your words spare. Don’t over-explain. People will ask questions, but you still choose what to answer – and when, and how.

Within the subtext of what little he told the Associated Press, Mayweather essentially said he would not fight Pacquiao in 2010 but did not take away the possibility of fighting him again later. Increasing the suspense. Increasing the desire. And also increasing the discontent.

If Mayweather didn’t want to fight Pacquiao in November, why not say so earlier? Why let your adviser continue to negotiate if your end of the negotiations isn’t being conducted in good faith?

For all the improvements in the negotiating process, this remained a PR war. Top Rank wanted to put the pressure on Mayweather, and Mayweather didn’t want to be pressured into giving Top Rank what it wanted.

Never mind what the fans wanted. Never mind what it would add to the fighters’ already historic legacies. Never mind what it would add to the fighters’ already sizable bank accounts.

Top Rank will go on to put Pacquiao in against Cotto or Margarito, its proceeds smaller but its profits kept in-house. Mayweather will go on to face whomever he decides to face, whenever he decides to face them. As with Pacquiao-Clottey and Mayweather-Mosley, neither fight will be the fight fans had hoped for.

Hope, after all, is a hot bath that cannot overcome a cold business.

The 10 Count

1.  And we still don’t have a rematch between Nonito Donaire and Vic Darchinyan.

And we still don’t have a collision between Juan Manuel Lopez and Yuriorkis Gamboa.

And we still don’t have a fight signed between Devon Alexander and Timothy Bradley.

And we still don’t have a rematch between Sergio Martinez and Paul Williams.

And we still don’t have David Haye taking on one of the Klitschkos.

2.  But we had a rematch between Roy Jones Jr. and Bernard Hopkins on pay-per-view.

But we will have Shane Mosley against Sergio Mora on pay-per-view.

But. But. But.

There always seem to be buts when it comes to why fights aren’t being made.

But promoter Gary Shaw didn’t want to work with Nonito Donaire ever again.

But Juan Manuel Lopez and Yuriorkis Gamboa should wait to fight each other.

But Devon Alexander and Timothy Bradley should do the same.

But Paul Williams is looking into options other than Sergio Martinez.

But David Haye will not sign to face Wladimir or Vitali Klitschko.

3.  All these buts are only serving to make asses of boxing’s big names.

4.  Love the potential of the junior-welterweight division. It has had periods of exciting depth and it has had times when all the talent seemed to be at lightweight and welterweight. Now is a time when the 140-pound weight class is chock full of good matches that could be made.

Could.

The division has Devon Alexander, Timothy Bradley, Amir Khan and Marcos Maidana as beltholders, and then a solid list of challengers in Zab Judah, Andreas Kotelnik, Kaizer Mabuza, Victor Ortiz, Lamont Peterson and Juan Urango.

The demand is for Alexander-Bradley and Khan-Maidana. The demand will not be satisfied, however, so long as the stars either hold out hope for the big money – a fight with Manny Pacquiao that Timothy Bradley wants but will not happen – or sit on their positions by taking fights fewer people want to see, such as Amir Khan potentially facing the winner of the rematch between Juan Manuel Marquez and Juan Diaz.

5.  This is why I love the idea of the Super Six super middleweight tournament. How many of those fights would we have actually seen if not for the tournament being set up?

6.  Did David Tua’s comeback really begin five years ago? Dude, what’s taking you so long?

Two fights in 2005. Two fights in 2006. Three fights in 2007. No fights in 2008. One fight in 2009. Two fights in 2010, including a draw this past Saturday with Monte Barrett.

Tua is 37 years old. I think it’s safe to say that his chances of regaining heavyweight prominence are about the same as Evander Holyfield’s.

Uh-oh. I hope I didn’t just give someone an idea: Tua-Holyfield… coming soon to a heavily papered arena near you? Seen by hundreds on an independent pay-per-view?

Tua-Barrett was on pay-per-view. So was Holyfield’s bout with Frans Botha. It could happen.

Sadly.

7.  Boxers Behaving Badly update: Get found guilty of assault? Get sentenced to house arrest, but only between the hours of 8 p.m. and 6 a.m.

It’s the kind of punishment Lindsay Lohan only wishes she could have. The only sentence that could’ve been lighter for undefeated welterweight prospect Kell Brook would’ve been the 84 minutes Lohan spent behind bars in the past.

Brook, 24, was found guilty last month of punching a nightclub manager who told him he couldn’t go into the women’s restroom. The house arrest comes instead of community service, which Brook’s promoter argued would’ve gotten in the way of the fighter’s training.

Brook, who is 21-0 with 14 knockouts, is scheduled to face Michael Jennings in September in a welterweight title elimination bout.

8.  Boxing Promoters Behaving Badly: Barry Hughes, who once managed former featherweight titlist Scott Harrison, has been arrested and charged with three counts of mortgage fraud and two counts of obtaining money unlawfully, according to British newspapers The Sun and The Scotsman.

I wish I could tell you more, but the articles are either written poorly or the prosecutors across the pond just haven’t provided reporters with the right information. Nothing I’ve read actually spells out the specific narrative of what Hughes is accused of doing.

Last year, Hughes, 31, was sentenced to community service after a December 2008 nightclub incident. That case could’ve been far worse – Hughes and two others arrested then had originally been charged with attempted murder.

9.  A Boxers Behaving Badly lightning round:

– British lightweight Henry Castle (20-5, 11 knockouts) has been sentenced to five-and-a-half years in prison for assaulting a 17-year-old girl on New Year’s Day, according to the Romsey Advertiser. The 31-year-old had initially been charged with sexual assault, but prosecutors dropped that and a count of kidnapping in exchange for Castle pleading guilty to wounding with intent.

– Michael Morris, a retired British 130-pounder who fought as Michael Armstrong, will spend four years in prison for charges relating to being a loan shark: blackmail, criminal damage, affray, and illegal money lending, according to BBC News. The 41-year-old was 18-7-1 as a pro, with 9 knockout wins.

– Shane Walford, who boxed under the name Shane Junior, has been sentenced to four-and-a-half years in prison for manslaughter, according to the Coventry Telegraph. The 34-year-old former British soldier punched a man in a bar. The man fell to the floor and died in the hospital a day later. Walford fought three times in 1999 and once in 2007, giving him a record of 3-1 (3 knockouts).

– British featherweight prospect Samir Mouneimne was found guilty of assaulting two women last year, according to the Hull Daily Mail. Though he has not been sentenced yet, he likely must also serve an additional 12 months for a suspended sentence relating to a separate assault. The 22-year-old is 4-0-1 with 1 knockout.

10.  In a perfect world, every wedding would have the woman walk to the altar to the tune of Richard Wagner’s “Bridal Chorus” and every man would step forward to the tune of HBO’s “Boxing After Dark” theme song.

Hey, a boy can dream…

David P. Greisman is a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. His weekly column, “Fighting Words,” appears every Monday on BoxingScene.com. He may be reached for questions and comments at fightingwords1@gmail.com