are people seriously giving cotto a chance?

[-Kev-]

Cotto will look tiny in there against Martinez. Martinez is like 5' 10" 170lbs on fight night. He's faster, more powerful, better mover, substantially longer reach, way longer, which is important for Martinez's pot shotting early in the fight as he waits 'til Cotto runs out of stamina, which being as heavy as he is for his frame, will happen.

The reach disparity is 73 to 67, that is huge. It wouldn't matter if Martinez was a bum. But that is a very big advantage for a guy who's faster, more powerful, has more stamina, is bigger, has fought bigger fighters/punchers.

TBF, what people giving Cotto a chance are banking on, is simply Martinez injuries and age catching up to him. The fight should look competitive at times, because Cotto is a competitive guy, even when he's getting pounded. I think Cotto should be at his best in the middle rounds, 5, 6, 7, 8 when Martinez notoriously takes these rounds off. What ever rounds is that Martinez decides to take off, that's when Cotto needs to capitalize and to hurt Martinez and get a couple of KD's. It's MSG so anything he does will be cheered like crazy and he can get an otherwise 8-4 win for Martinez, turn to 7-5 for him if he just stays active and avoids getting stopped.

[sdcluser]

healthy sergio cotto loses

sergio fights tall and fights well on back foot.

in addition, cotto is a converted southpaw without a good straight right and relies on left hooks. Cotto is underdawg based on a healthy sergio and could get knock out.

On the other hand, if Cotto can get inside if sergio's leg is gone......well....

A LOT depends on the health condition of sergio's leg/foot work.

[p4p-champ]

I always had Martinez wining this match-up bu after his really poor showing in his last fight, gotta lean towards Cotto. Martinez looked, old, slow, shopworn in his last fight; like he was ready to retire. If that same Martinez show up, Cotto takes it.

[sugarsmosley]

if cotto takes a bad beating from maravilla, than goes to canelo could be bad news. canelo isn't that much smaller than sergio.

everyone here is right, if maravilla is healthy cotto will be stopped. that's like if sergio went up to light heavy. cotto will always have the skills and smarts to compete at 154, but will never beat the elite at 154. fighting the champion at 160 is very dangerous for cotto

[sugarsmosley]

I always had Martinez wining this match-up bu after his really poor showing in his last fight, gotta lean towards Cotto. Martinez looked, old, slow, shopworn in his last fight; like he was ready to retire. If that same Martinez show up, Cotto takes it.

he dominated chavez jr for 11 rounds. the murray fight i will admit he looked like crap. but now people are underrating murray as if he's a bum and calling sergio a bum because the fight was close between the two. i think martin murray beats anyone not named golovkin and martinez at 160.

[bojangles1987]

he dominated chavez jr for 11 rounds. the murray fight i will admit he looked like crap. but now people are underrating murray as if he's a bum and calling sergio a bum because the fight was close between the two. i think martin murray beats anyone not named golovkin and martinez at 160.

Murray didn't even beat Sturm. He's not a beast, he's no better than any of the round robin of second tier fighters at middleweight.

[-MAKAVELLI-]

sergio's slippage is that of a running back in the NFL when their shelf life is up...cotto has a great shot

[10COUNT]

Agree with OP. Big Cotto fan bit this is a bad match up for him. Sergio will wear him down. Sergio is a 12 round fighter. What will cotto do in the second half where he usually fatigues?

[Porter's Dad]

Love both fighters, I'll be rooting for Miguel but honestly, anything other than a Martinez win will surprise me. I think they're placing too much stock in Serg's injuries.

[Young Money]

Sergio has had time to heal - could be better off after taking the break.

Also if I'm not mistaken I remember his last fight against Murray was in an outdoor stadium where it started raining and making the ring slippery. He wouldn't have been as elusive.