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The first post from the new blog I'm trying to start, majoritydraw.wordpress.com
Mayweather appears to be in the final stretch of his career and this six-fight thirty month television deal is clearly an attempt to solidify his legacy as an all-time great. Inactivity and controversial decisions have largely quelled that talk despite his consensus number one ranking on the pound for pound lists. One record in particular Mayweather may be going after is the great Marciano’s unblemished 49-0 mark before retirement. Several champions have hung it up (or in the case of Salvador Sanchez or more recently Edwin Valero, died) without ever seeing their opponent’s hand raised after a fight. If Mayweather gets six more victories, he ties the Brockton Blockbuster with a dazzling 49-0 record. One has to think Mayweather has this record in mind when he made a six-fight deal.
Since he moved up to 147 in 2006 and chose to fight Zab Judah coming off a loss to Carlos Baldomir, detractors have asserted he takes soft-touches and chooses to avoid fighting the best fighters at 147. There is much truth to this, but since choosing to fight Marquez instead of Pacquiao in 2009, his opponents have been largely deserving: Mosley was coming off one of the best wins of his career against Margarito, Victor Ortiz had just won a fight of the year and took the WBC strap from Andre Berto. And Cotto remained performing at a high level including avenging defeat to Margarito. Simply put, yes there are guys out there that Mayweather has chosen not to fight, but he fought a lot of these guys eventually and the guys he did fight were far from soft touches. I look for Mayweather, the most cerebral fighter AND matchmaker in the sport (by proxy Al Haymon) to minimize his chances of dropping his zero, while still taking on fighters who on paper still pose considerable threats. If he’s concerned with his legacy, as it appears he now is, he’s not going to wind his career down fighting the likes of Devon Alexander. Always susceptible to bouts of unproductive speculation, I’ve compiled a list and accompanying rationale of the six fights I believe Mayweather will take as he attempts to go down in the history books.
For starters, let’s talk about the guys Mayweather will most definitely NOT fight:
— Sergio Martinez
Sergio’s just too damn big and talented for Mayweather to try his luck with. Floyd might even be an underdog should this fight ever happen, and after spending the last couple years campaigning as a middleweight, I doubt the 38 year old Martinez could get down to 154. Too much of a size mismatch working against Mayweather here.
— Juan Manuel Marquez
Some casual fight fans started asking about the possibility of this fight after Marquez’s destruction of Pacquiao. Here’s the real possibility: zero. Mayweather has been there and outboxed that. No need for this fight to happen again and Marquez has said as much in interviews.
— Adrien Broner
Unless something changes it appears as if Adrien Broner is prime to rule the roost at 135 + 140 for at least the next few years.
My best guess is they’ll be looking for a Danny Garcia-Adrien Broner match soon. If Broner can beat Garcia, and I believe he’d be a heavy favorite, they’d eventually try to match him up with Matthysse. Mayweather believes as many do that he is the natural successor to His pound for pound hegemony. Since Broner described Mayweather as a brother, and they are both members of the same fighting stable, Haymon and Mayweather have the good sense to let Broner develop into a bona fide star without standing in his way.
— Any fighter signed to a Top Rank contract.
This almost goes without saying for diehard boxing fans long frustrated by Top Rank not working with Golden Boy or Al Haymon fighters so as to keep all profits in house. That means for the time being, matchups with TR fighters are off the table. If one of these fighters jumps ship, that’s a different story and I’ll explain who I think may breach contract soon.
Ok now let’s go into my projected match-ups. This is all contingent on the assumption that Mayweather wins all of these fights and doesn’t need to retire/have rematches.
Fight #1: vs. Robert Guerrero
This fight is already signed. Despite mainstream boxing pundits’ complaints that this doesn’t have the draw of a Manny Pacquiao fight, it’s clear to real boxing fans that Guerrero is no joke. He practically blinded Berto last year and looked very impressive beating a guy with fast hands to the punch. He’s got a tremendous chin, solid pop that he’s carried up the weight divisions over the years, and a pretty respectable punch output. I ultimately think May has too much class for him, however and will be very defensive-oriented, sticking with the shoulder roll technique that Berto quickly abandoned in their fight last year.
Fight #2: vs. Canelo Alvarez/Austin Trout winner
No excuses. If the Alvarez-Trout fight is going to be on the undercard of Mayweather’s first showtime PPV, the clear expectation is for him to box the winner in a fight in the fall. Naturally, Mayweather knows the biggest money fight to be made right now is against Alvarez, but Trout certainly has the skills to pull off the upset as he demonstrated against Cotto last year. If Trout wins, that fight will still be huge, and an all-American showdown might help infuse interest back into the sport domestically. Whoever wins is next up, no question.
Fight #3: Kell Brook
As exhibited by the enormous buzz generated for his fight with Hatton, Mayweather understands that the Brits love their boxing. Before getting derailed against Lamont Peterson in 2011, Amir Khan was unquestionably being groomed for a showdown with the pound for pound king. Khan’s chances are far from finished if he can avenge a loss to Danny Garcia or beat whoever holds the lineal 140 belt by that time. My guess however is that Broner will have a stronghold over that and Khan will be on the outside looking in. The Brit I think who has the biggest shot of meeting Mayweather on Showtime/CBS is Kell Brook. If he can beat Devon Alexander in their fight in a few months, which I expect him to do, although it’s no sure thing, he’ll have a belt and a firm foothold in what has been, in recent history, boxing’s best division. One more win over a guy like Paulie Malignaggi in 2013 and he’s in a good position to fight Mayweather in 2014 in a US/UK battle.
Fight #4: vs. a Top Rank defector — Brandon Rios or Timothy Bradley
A fight with Pacman looks doubtful as he seems to want Marquez or nobody at all. Marquez looks like doesn’t want to fight either of these talented guys in the twilight of his career. Arum doesn’t seem to know what to do with them now. Match them against each other maybe, but then what? Golden Boy is gradually becoming more a powerful promotional entity, and fighters realize this What are the odds Rios or Bradley don’t jump ship and sign on with either GBP or Al Haymon? If this happens, I think Floyd’s more likely to take a fight with Rios, as his lack of defense can be easily exploited and make for a more entertaining and comparably easier fight.
Fight #5: vs. Keith Thurman
This dude looks like the real deal. By this time, if he stays on the track he’s on, the 2012 ESPN and boxingscene.com prospect of the year should be well on his way to a fight with the bell-cow of the sport. Starting with Ortiz and now Guerrero, Mayweather seems lately seems to be trying to fight these young hungry fighters in their prime, on the conditions that they’re of relatively similar size and that he will get the lion’s share of the purse. Look for this fight to happen in the spring of 2015.
Fight #6: vs. a B-level 160-pounder for a paper title
What better way to go out than with championships at 130, 135, 140, 147, 154, and then 160! that’s not quite Pacquiao’s 8 (though let’s be honest, a 150 pound catchweight fight with Margarito for a vacant belt shouldn’t count) but it’s still pretty damn impressive. It’s not clear who will be a champion around this time, but like Roy jones going after the weakest of heavyweight champions in John Ruiz, don’t look for Mayweather to test himself too much and go after a supremely skilled Martinez-caliber fighter. The sheer fact Floyd moved up in weight yet again will be impressive enough. Calling the Daniel Geales of the world: you might have the distinction of being the opponent in Mayweather’s final professional fight, or potentially penultimate if he wants to top Marciano.
Mayweather appears to be in the final stretch of his career and this six-fight thirty month television deal is clearly an attempt to solidify his legacy as an all-time great. Inactivity and controversial decisions have largely quelled that talk despite his consensus number one ranking on the pound for pound lists. One record in particular Mayweather may be going after is the great Marciano’s unblemished 49-0 mark before retirement. Several champions have hung it up (or in the case of Salvador Sanchez or more recently Edwin Valero, died) without ever seeing their opponent’s hand raised after a fight. If Mayweather gets six more victories, he ties the Brockton Blockbuster with a dazzling 49-0 record. One has to think Mayweather has this record in mind when he made a six-fight deal.
Since he moved up to 147 in 2006 and chose to fight Zab Judah coming off a loss to Carlos Baldomir, detractors have asserted he takes soft-touches and chooses to avoid fighting the best fighters at 147. There is much truth to this, but since choosing to fight Marquez instead of Pacquiao in 2009, his opponents have been largely deserving: Mosley was coming off one of the best wins of his career against Margarito, Victor Ortiz had just won a fight of the year and took the WBC strap from Andre Berto. And Cotto remained performing at a high level including avenging defeat to Margarito. Simply put, yes there are guys out there that Mayweather has chosen not to fight, but he fought a lot of these guys eventually and the guys he did fight were far from soft touches. I look for Mayweather, the most cerebral fighter AND matchmaker in the sport (by proxy Al Haymon) to minimize his chances of dropping his zero, while still taking on fighters who on paper still pose considerable threats. If he’s concerned with his legacy, as it appears he now is, he’s not going to wind his career down fighting the likes of Devon Alexander. Always susceptible to bouts of unproductive speculation, I’ve compiled a list and accompanying rationale of the six fights I believe Mayweather will take as he attempts to go down in the history books.
For starters, let’s talk about the guys Mayweather will most definitely NOT fight:
— Sergio Martinez
Sergio’s just too damn big and talented for Mayweather to try his luck with. Floyd might even be an underdog should this fight ever happen, and after spending the last couple years campaigning as a middleweight, I doubt the 38 year old Martinez could get down to 154. Too much of a size mismatch working against Mayweather here.
— Juan Manuel Marquez
Some casual fight fans started asking about the possibility of this fight after Marquez’s destruction of Pacquiao. Here’s the real possibility: zero. Mayweather has been there and outboxed that. No need for this fight to happen again and Marquez has said as much in interviews.
— Adrien Broner
Unless something changes it appears as if Adrien Broner is prime to rule the roost at 135 + 140 for at least the next few years.
My best guess is they’ll be looking for a Danny Garcia-Adrien Broner match soon. If Broner can beat Garcia, and I believe he’d be a heavy favorite, they’d eventually try to match him up with Matthysse. Mayweather believes as many do that he is the natural successor to His pound for pound hegemony. Since Broner described Mayweather as a brother, and they are both members of the same fighting stable, Haymon and Mayweather have the good sense to let Broner develop into a bona fide star without standing in his way.
— Any fighter signed to a Top Rank contract.
This almost goes without saying for diehard boxing fans long frustrated by Top Rank not working with Golden Boy or Al Haymon fighters so as to keep all profits in house. That means for the time being, matchups with TR fighters are off the table. If one of these fighters jumps ship, that’s a different story and I’ll explain who I think may breach contract soon.
Ok now let’s go into my projected match-ups. This is all contingent on the assumption that Mayweather wins all of these fights and doesn’t need to retire/have rematches.
Fight #1: vs. Robert Guerrero
This fight is already signed. Despite mainstream boxing pundits’ complaints that this doesn’t have the draw of a Manny Pacquiao fight, it’s clear to real boxing fans that Guerrero is no joke. He practically blinded Berto last year and looked very impressive beating a guy with fast hands to the punch. He’s got a tremendous chin, solid pop that he’s carried up the weight divisions over the years, and a pretty respectable punch output. I ultimately think May has too much class for him, however and will be very defensive-oriented, sticking with the shoulder roll technique that Berto quickly abandoned in their fight last year.
Fight #2: vs. Canelo Alvarez/Austin Trout winner
No excuses. If the Alvarez-Trout fight is going to be on the undercard of Mayweather’s first showtime PPV, the clear expectation is for him to box the winner in a fight in the fall. Naturally, Mayweather knows the biggest money fight to be made right now is against Alvarez, but Trout certainly has the skills to pull off the upset as he demonstrated against Cotto last year. If Trout wins, that fight will still be huge, and an all-American showdown might help infuse interest back into the sport domestically. Whoever wins is next up, no question.
Fight #3: Kell Brook
As exhibited by the enormous buzz generated for his fight with Hatton, Mayweather understands that the Brits love their boxing. Before getting derailed against Lamont Peterson in 2011, Amir Khan was unquestionably being groomed for a showdown with the pound for pound king. Khan’s chances are far from finished if he can avenge a loss to Danny Garcia or beat whoever holds the lineal 140 belt by that time. My guess however is that Broner will have a stronghold over that and Khan will be on the outside looking in. The Brit I think who has the biggest shot of meeting Mayweather on Showtime/CBS is Kell Brook. If he can beat Devon Alexander in their fight in a few months, which I expect him to do, although it’s no sure thing, he’ll have a belt and a firm foothold in what has been, in recent history, boxing’s best division. One more win over a guy like Paulie Malignaggi in 2013 and he’s in a good position to fight Mayweather in 2014 in a US/UK battle.
Fight #4: vs. a Top Rank defector — Brandon Rios or Timothy Bradley
A fight with Pacman looks doubtful as he seems to want Marquez or nobody at all. Marquez looks like doesn’t want to fight either of these talented guys in the twilight of his career. Arum doesn’t seem to know what to do with them now. Match them against each other maybe, but then what? Golden Boy is gradually becoming more a powerful promotional entity, and fighters realize this What are the odds Rios or Bradley don’t jump ship and sign on with either GBP or Al Haymon? If this happens, I think Floyd’s more likely to take a fight with Rios, as his lack of defense can be easily exploited and make for a more entertaining and comparably easier fight.
Fight #5: vs. Keith Thurman
This dude looks like the real deal. By this time, if he stays on the track he’s on, the 2012 ESPN and boxingscene.com prospect of the year should be well on his way to a fight with the bell-cow of the sport. Starting with Ortiz and now Guerrero, Mayweather seems lately seems to be trying to fight these young hungry fighters in their prime, on the conditions that they’re of relatively similar size and that he will get the lion’s share of the purse. Look for this fight to happen in the spring of 2015.
Fight #6: vs. a B-level 160-pounder for a paper title
What better way to go out than with championships at 130, 135, 140, 147, 154, and then 160! that’s not quite Pacquiao’s 8 (though let’s be honest, a 150 pound catchweight fight with Margarito for a vacant belt shouldn’t count) but it’s still pretty damn impressive. It’s not clear who will be a champion around this time, but like Roy jones going after the weakest of heavyweight champions in John Ruiz, don’t look for Mayweather to test himself too much and go after a supremely skilled Martinez-caliber fighter. The sheer fact Floyd moved up in weight yet again will be impressive enough. Calling the Daniel Geales of the world: you might have the distinction of being the opponent in Mayweather’s final professional fight, or potentially penultimate if he wants to top Marciano.
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