Cotto vs Martinez: Keys to the Fight

[JmH Reborn]

After months of bull***** between the camps - all the trash talk - all the whining - all the facade, the moment of truth is here. In four excruciating long days, these two proud and aging warriors will enter the ring and hopefully give us, the fans a true war.

With that said - lets talk some actual boxing - which I know is hard to do lately with all the turds infesting this site with nothing to actually say. This thread is geared for those who are actually interested in analyzing the fight. Now - the keys to the fight [according to me]

Miguel Cotto

- Establish the jab -- Cotto's jab, coming from his power hand has long been on the sport's most punishing weapons. Every opponent Cotto has faced have had to contend with a jab that not only sets up Cotto's body attack, but has been used as a psuedo power punch. Sergio fights in an unorthodox manner in which he baits his opponents into counter range. Cotto will need his jab to be at full force in order to persuade Martinez to abandon the hand's down approach. If Cotto can get Martinez's respect with his jab and force Martinez to keep the guard up - it gives Cotto lots of opportunities

- Left Hook to the body -- Cotto's bread and butter and what made him a force to reckon with up until 2008. He abandoned the left hook as other trainer's attempted to switch up his style. Against Trout, Cotto was unable to get inside against his foe, due to an ineffective jab and poor strategy. With his inability to throw his vaunted power punch - it allowed Trout to maintain his energy and get a deserved win. Against Martinez, Cotto cannot allow the Champ the opportunity to have the energy for a championship round burst. Cotto must get inside with the jab and to evoke Teddy Atlas, put money in the bank in the form of left hooks that'll pay dividends later as Sergio will have limited stamina to rally in his patented style that he has the last 5 years.

- Turn the aging Champ -- In the Margarito rematch; Cotto used a strategy that he failed to do the first time around - he punched with Margarito and then effectively turned Margarito around, forcing him to reset before he could throw. It allowed free shots from Cotto and took away Margarito's momentum. A similar strategy could work well on a champion who uses movement to confound his foes. If Cotto could get inside and force Martinez to turn, it'll put pressure on a Champ who will be forced to use his knees in a manner he most likely will try to avoid. This will be the ring generalship Cotto must employ to take Martinez out of his comfort zone and force him to use his legs in a manner he will likely try to avoid.

Sergio Martinez

- Use the reach -- Martinez will hold a significant reach advantage over Cotto that he must use to prevent what will most likely be a Cotto who will be gunning for a fast start. I suspect Cotto will use that jab to get inside and disallow Martinez to shoot off those fast straight lefts. To prevent that, Martinez must jab over Cotto's jab with his superior reach. With Martinez's jab remaining a force - he could follow it up with a straight left that would end Cotto's ambition to get inside.

- Hit the pit -- The smartest thing Trout did in his affair with Cotto was throw straight shots to the pit of Cotto's stomach. Both of these fighters are in my opinion 8 round fighters - severely gassed. However Martinez has shown in the past, as has Cotto the ability to get the championship rounds to earn a win. As I suspect - this fight will go the whole 12 and the winner will be determined in the 10-12 rounds. Whoever has that last bit of energy will win it. With Martinez's advancing age and knee injuries - whatever manner he can to preserve his energy, he must take - so to help his cause, he should focus landing those mean straight lefts into Cotto's midsection - which will allow him [Cotto] to be ripe for the taking in the championship rounds.

- The uppercut -- Cotto is going to get on the inside. He was able to get inside against Mayweather, who had a similar reach advantage that Martinez has. In a battle of hooks - Cotto will win, so Martinez will need to employ what I consider his less used and less impressive arsenal in his punch game, which has also proven to be Cotto's bane - the uppercut. In recent years, Cotto has shored up some of that defensive flaw, but in the end - Cotto still has a tendency to spread open his elbows as he prepares to throw his punches and at that moment, Martinez must fire off meaningful uppercuts. If he cannot do it - he'll have a long day in office found in the trenches - where Cotto is most at home.

Anyways - those are my keys to the fight - DISCUSS

[Beercules]

Very good points. Cotto needs to land that left hook early to take whatever he can out of Sergio as the fight goes on.

But to be honest I think Sergio's jab is going to cause Cotto major problems.

[JmH Reborn]

Very good points. Cotto needs to land that left hook early to take whatever he can out of Sergio as the fight goes on.

But to be honest I think Sergio's jab is going to cause Cotto major problems.

Yeah I agree - it's no coincidence that I think that each fighter's respective jab is each of their most critical key to the fight

Whomever comes on Saturday with the best jab, IMO will win the fight.

[j.one]

First, I believe Cotto has one chance, box him 12 rounds and be a defensive wizard. Cotto IMO will have to find a way to not get hit while landing enough to win the fight. By this I mean Cotto cannot take chances punishment or allow himself to gas.

Maybe Sergio is as shot and defenseless as Roach claims, even so I don't think Cotto should test the power if he doesn't have to.

The jab is key for both men...Cotto to win IMO and Sergio to frustrate Cotto and wear him down.

Despite thinking Cotto is outgunned here im still watching.

[jas]

Sergio's straight left to the body

[Sugar Adam Ali]

The thing about this fight is that cotto is by far the most skilled fighter serg has ever met, not the biggest or strongest but def the most skilled, and by a wide margin.. And cotto has been in with higher caliber of fighters than an old serg...

If the serg that fought Murray shows up, cotto breaks him down, and beats him up for a decision win

[Njord777]

I agree with your tactical points, and despite their age I'm honestly as excited for this fight as any in a good, long while. Cotto has been a true champion, fighting the best at welterweight and having solid wins even after falling short against the top dogs (mainly Pacquiao and Mayweather).

Sergio, as of a few years ago, looked just too sharp with his size for Miguel to really challenge him. With a punch as decent as Martinez's, and with the size advantage to stay on the outside until he's ready, Maravilla seemed a solid middleweight champion that no bloated welterweight or junior middleweight could really handle.

Now this fight has lost a bit of appeal because Sergio isn't fresh off his one punch destruction of Paul Williams, and Miguel wasn't up to task against Trout.

Martinez had to box 12 with Chavez and Murray, and going back almost went the distance with Barker and Macklin, too.

Now I know these were bigger men, and styles make fights, but Sergio almost got put down in the last round by Chavez and even tasted canvas against Macklin - and I think regardless of size Cotto is still a better fighter than most of Sergio's competition.

That said, Miguel IS a much smaller man and even going back to 140, his chin while solid, has given way before; so Sergio's power comes into play.

Cotto, I think, might have more in the tank that Martinez and is a better technical boxer in many ways. If he can follow a gameplan and the larger man's size doesn't bother him, I give Miguel a genuine shot.

Sergio IS coming off surgery, and older, but if looks better with his movement and stamina than he has recently, Miguel could win many rounds that still see him taking too many decent shots; that culminate with a late stoppage.

I like both fighters and, being at a later stage of their career, I have a hard time picking a clear favorite.

I'd have said Maravilla would walk through Cotto a few years ago, but Martinez is also clearly now fighting age as well as his opponent.

If you pressed me, I'd say Sergio will still take this, but I really don't feel confident I'll know what the fight will look like until a I've seen a few rounds.

[Jloro]

A left hook is a hard punch to land to Maravillas body, and he has been practicing countering the jab a lot, I don't think this looks good for ol' Cotto

[Njord777]

First, I believe Cotto has one chance, box him 12 rounds and be a defensive wizard. Cotto IMO will have to find a way to not get hit while landing enough to win the fight. By this I mean Cotto cannot take chances punishment or allow himself to gas.

Maybe Sergio is as shot and defenseless as Roach claims, even so I don't think Cotto should test the power if he doesn't have to.

The jab is key for both men...Cotto to win IMO and Sergio to frustrate Cotto and wear him down.

Despite thinking Cotto is outgunned here im still watching.

If Sergio DOES stick to his jab and work off it, I think Cotto will have a very rough night. He'd need to be willing to get hit to get inside the bigger man's reach, otherwise Martinez can box and move - and being the bigger guy he can actually do this while he waits to land a big punch.

Cotto, on the other hand, probably can't hope to hurt Martinez or stun him with any one shot, so his night is all about getting rounds in the bank. He needs to use that vicious body attack he once displayed, and really fire on all cylinders to have a shot.

If we see a jab fest, I think Sergio will either win a wide decision or break Cotto's will late fight. This is why I still favor Martinez, despite thinking Cotto is a better fighter at this stage.

[Cuauhtémoc1520]

[QUOTE=JmH Reborn;14618813]

Miguel Cotto

- Establish the jab -- Cotto's jab, coming from his power hand has long been on the sport's most punishing weapons. Every opponent Cotto has faced have had to contend with a jab that not only sets up Cotto's body attack, but has been used as a psuedo power punch. Sergio fights in an unorthodox manner in which he baits his opponents into counter range. Cotto will need his jab to be at full force in order to persuade Martinez to abandon the hand's down approach. If Cotto can get Martinez's respect with his jab and force Martinez to keep the guard up - it gives Cotto lots of opportunities

I agree, best weapon Cotto has by far IMO. He has a masterful jab, that is also a power shot. He needs to use it to get inside, and keep Martinez off rhythm.

- Left Hook to the body

-- Cotto's bread and butter and what made him a force to reckon with up until 2008. He abandoned the left hook as other trainer's attempted to switch up his style. Against Trout, Cotto was unable to get inside against his foe, due to an ineffective jab and poor strategy. With his inability to throw his vaunted power punch - it allowed Trout to maintain his energy and get a deserved win. Against Martinez, Cotto cannot allow the Champ the opportunity to have the energy for a championship round burst. Cotto must get inside with the jab and to evoke Teddy Atlas, put money in the bank in the form of left hooks that'll pay dividends later as Sergio will have limited stamina to rally in his patented style that he has the last 5 years.

I will be surprised if this is a weapon for Cotto. In order to work the body, you have to get inside, Martinez will do everything for that not to happen. Sergio is a great mover in the ring, he steps in and out of distance, and comes back with combo's. Martinez is not only the bigger man, he's the quicker man on his feet.

- Turn the aging Champ -- In the Margarito rematch; Cotto used a strategy that he failed to do the first time around - he punched with Margarito and then effectively turned Margarito around, forcing him to reset before he could throw. It allowed free shots from Cotto and took away Margarito's momentum. A similar strategy could work well on a champion who uses movement to confound his foes. If Cotto could get inside and force Martinez to turn, it'll put pressure on a Champ who will be forced to use his knees in a manner he most likely will try to avoid. This will be the ring generalship Cotto must employ to take Martinez out of his comfort zone and force him to use his legs in a manner he will likely try to avoid.

Margarito is a flat footed fighter, it was easy for Cotto to turn him and take angles after punching, I don't think that will work on Martinez. I believe the biggest problem Cotto faces is Sergio's movement. Cotto IMO has to become the pressure fighter, even though he's the smaller man. He will have a tough time getting inside and delivering the body shots needed.

Sergio Martinez

- Use the reach -- Martinez will hold a significant reach advantage over Cotto that he must use to prevent what will most likely be a Cotto who will be gunning for a fast start. I suspect Cotto will use that jab to get inside and disallow Martinez to shoot off those fast straight lefts. To prevent that, Martinez must jab over Cotto's jab with his superior reach. With Martinez's jab remaining a force - he could follow it up with a straight left that would end Cotto's ambition to get inside.

Agreed, reach and the inside out countering he does so well.

- Hit the pit -- The smartest thing Trout did in his affair with Cotto was throw straight shots to the pit of Cotto's stomach. Both of these fighters are in my opinion 8 round fighters - severely gassed. However Martinez has shown in the past, as has Cotto the ability to get the championship rounds to earn a win. As I suspect - this fight will go the whole 12 and the winner will be determined in the 10-12 rounds. Whoever has that last bit of energy will win it. With Martinez's advancing age and knee injuries - whatever manner he can to preserve his energy, he must take - so to help his cause, he should focus landing those mean straight lefts into Cotto's midsection - which will allow him [Cotto] to be ripe for the taking in the championship rounds.

I believe Martinez' body work will come later in the fight.

- The uppercut -- Cotto is going to get on the inside. He was able to get inside against Mayweather, who had a similar reach advantage that Martinez has. In a battle of hooks - Cotto will win, so Martinez will need to employ what I consider his less used and less impressive arsenal in his punch game, which has also proven to be Cotto's bane - the uppercut. In recent years, Cotto has shored up some of that defensive flaw, but in the end - Cotto still has a tendency to spread open his elbows as he prepares to throw his punches and at that moment, Martinez must fire off meaningful uppercuts. If he cannot do it - he'll have a long day in office found in the trenches - where Cotto is most at home.

It will be interesting to see if Martinez uses the upper cut which he's not really known for. Reasons being because he's really not an inside fighter and you don't see it that often.

I believe if Cotto manages to get inside, then we will see it but I don't think it will be a major punch in this fight. I believe Martinez left hand and right hook will be the money punches for him.

Of course I could be wrong about everything...lol I just see a boxing performance by Martinez. Using movement and counter shots to frustrate Cotto.