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As a future Hall of Fame trainer, I would like to start a keys to victory thread before significant fights, you dont have to agree and all comments and critiques are welcome because I am trying to become the best so I need to hear it. But with that said here are the do's and dont's I think each fighter would have to do to come out victorious:
Challenger Saul "Canelo" Alvarez: Despite Canelo being the bigger/longer fighter, Canelo will have to fight as if he is the shorter man. Boxrec has Cotto having a 67" reach while Canelo listed at 70" but Cotto extends his jab better making him the rangier fighter. Head movement will be key to Alvarez timing Cottos jab. Cotto IMO, will also be the quicker (not by much) handed boxer but Canelo being the younger fighter will have the better reflexes of the 2 so timing will be key, slipping and countering the jab with a looping overhand right (which I never see canelo throw) will make Cotto skeptical about throwing that jab and circling to his left. Canelo will have to start fast and throw that overhand from the second Cotto flicks his first jab, because the more hesitant Canelo makes Cotto to circle, the more open Cotto is to the body. Which comes to my second Key, for that split second Canelo gets Cotto to stop circling, Canelo needs to get off at least 2 punches to the mid section. Canelo being the younger man should not be throwing anything less than 3 punch combos, and for the first 5-6rds they should always end to the body. Once Canelo gets Cotto to become more stationary he can work upstairs and if done right, I see it stopping around rd 10.
Champion Miguel Angel Cotto: Range is key for Cotto, luckily for Cotto his jab is one of the best in boxing today. Cotto needs to establish the range early but vary his foot movement by moving side to side to confuse the lesser experienced fighter. It would be smart if Cotto favored movement to his right to take away Canelo right cross which will also help set up the counter left to the body. Which leads to key#2, For the first 5rds, Cotto shouldnt be throwing any more than 2 punches at a time unless a great opportunity presents itself. Cotto downfall in some fights is he has chosen to try to get off first but at his age he should be focused on counter punching, Canelos body will present itself considering Canelo likes to admire his punch after he throws it, so it best for Cotto to be less proactive and more reactive, but dont get caught in a brawl, stick and move to the body but throw with authority and get out. This will take away the younger mans confidence and power. If Cotto can do this for the first 5-6rds, Canelo will be broken mentally and drop his hands, than Cotto can start throwing his deadly 3-4punch combos and probably win a wide UD or late TKO.
Well folks, thats my keys to victory in a nutshell, I respect both fighters and I know its easier said than done, and I know it doesnt necessarily have to happen this way but its the only way I picture either fighter winning. If it goes 12, I will be surprised.
Challenger Saul "Canelo" Alvarez: Despite Canelo being the bigger/longer fighter, Canelo will have to fight as if he is the shorter man. Boxrec has Cotto having a 67" reach while Canelo listed at 70" but Cotto extends his jab better making him the rangier fighter. Head movement will be key to Alvarez timing Cottos jab. Cotto IMO, will also be the quicker (not by much) handed boxer but Canelo being the younger fighter will have the better reflexes of the 2 so timing will be key, slipping and countering the jab with a looping overhand right (which I never see canelo throw) will make Cotto skeptical about throwing that jab and circling to his left. Canelo will have to start fast and throw that overhand from the second Cotto flicks his first jab, because the more hesitant Canelo makes Cotto to circle, the more open Cotto is to the body. Which comes to my second Key, for that split second Canelo gets Cotto to stop circling, Canelo needs to get off at least 2 punches to the mid section. Canelo being the younger man should not be throwing anything less than 3 punch combos, and for the first 5-6rds they should always end to the body. Once Canelo gets Cotto to become more stationary he can work upstairs and if done right, I see it stopping around rd 10.
Champion Miguel Angel Cotto: Range is key for Cotto, luckily for Cotto his jab is one of the best in boxing today. Cotto needs to establish the range early but vary his foot movement by moving side to side to confuse the lesser experienced fighter. It would be smart if Cotto favored movement to his right to take away Canelo right cross which will also help set up the counter left to the body. Which leads to key#2, For the first 5rds, Cotto shouldnt be throwing any more than 2 punches at a time unless a great opportunity presents itself. Cotto downfall in some fights is he has chosen to try to get off first but at his age he should be focused on counter punching, Canelos body will present itself considering Canelo likes to admire his punch after he throws it, so it best for Cotto to be less proactive and more reactive, but dont get caught in a brawl, stick and move to the body but throw with authority and get out. This will take away the younger mans confidence and power. If Cotto can do this for the first 5-6rds, Canelo will be broken mentally and drop his hands, than Cotto can start throwing his deadly 3-4punch combos and probably win a wide UD or late TKO.
Well folks, thats my keys to victory in a nutshell, I respect both fighters and I know its easier said than done, and I know it doesnt necessarily have to happen this way but its the only way I picture either fighter winning. If it goes 12, I will be surprised.
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