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Old 09-15-2017, 08:34 AM #31
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Golovkin took some big punches from Rosado aswell
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:38 AM #32
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Originally Posted by Sparked_26 View Post
Professional gamblers bet on who they think will win regardless of value and just lump on, surely.
Professional gamblers LIVE off of finding edges & value. Very few gamblers can just pick winners all the time. Most of the guys who claim they can are usually just degen bettors. A good % of professional gamblers are computer dorks who've come up with programs to find exploitable betting lines in a specific sport or sports.

There is actually a sports betting investment fund (12% ROI) that just got legalized to invest in thats ran by a long time sports bettor Chris Connelly thats based upon a computer program using betting trends to find edges. Live betting when there are typically more extreme edges to find in betting lines is one of the holes they exploit often from hearing Chris talk about his strategy a few times.
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using professional insight coupled with advanced computer modeling to bet against market fluctuations caused by the public perception of novice bettors’ overreactions to trends and recent events. The ability to identify these fluctuations creates value for Contrarian Investments LLC, generating an edge over the house and potentially long run positive returns in the sportsbetting market.
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
canelo ko is a bad bet at those odds, I would even say its even a bad bet at 15/1
I always like breaking down the odds into %'s & +800 says Canelo KO's GGG 1 time outta 9 fights. I think Canelo would KO GGG at least once in 9 fights if we could simulate this fight multiple times.

Canelo has better one punch power. GGG has garbage defense for an elite caliber fighter. And GGG has only been 12 rounds 2 or 3 times iirc. I think Canelo by a late KO is very possible & while it'd probably be the least probable way for the fight to go (GGG W12, Canelo W12, GGG KO before it) I think those are sexy profitable odds for the least probable outcome.
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Old 09-15-2017, 08:45 AM #33
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ggg controls the space better than canelo

ggg has underrated defence

I honestly think canelo ko at those odds is a terrible bet

good thing is we get to see in a day
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Old 09-15-2017, 03:28 PM #34
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Originally Posted by Hype Job View Post
He's more elusive than u and other people think tbh. But I get you're point.
They dont call Golovkin "the mexican" because he is a defensive wizard
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Old 09-15-2017, 03:54 PM #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Eff Pandas View Post
Professional gamblers LIVE off of finding edges & value. Very few gamblers can just pick winners all the time. Most of the guys who claim they can are usually just degen bettors. A good % of professional gamblers are computer dorks who've come up with programs to find exploitable betting lines in a specific sport or sports.

There is actually a sports betting investment fund (12% ROI) that just got legalized to invest in thats ran by a long time sports bettor Chris Connelly thats based upon a computer program using betting trends to find edges. Live betting when there are typically more extreme edges to find in betting lines is one of the holes they exploit often from hearing Chris talk about his strategy a few times.

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I always like breaking down the odds into %'s & +800 says Canelo KO's GGG 1 time outta 9 fights. I think Canelo would KO GGG at least once in 9 fights if we could simulate this fight multiple times.

Canelo has better one punch power. GGG has garbage defense for an elite caliber fighter. And GGG has only been 12 rounds 2 or 3 times iirc. I think Canelo by a late KO is very possible & while it'd probably be the least probable way for the fight to go (GGG W12, Canelo W12, GGG KO before it) I think those are sexy profitable odds for the least probable outcome.
Good points and GGG has actually only been 12 rounds once against Jacobs all his other decision wins were 8 rounds or less so it's hard to say how he will perform down the stretch especially if it's a rough, brutal fight. Like you say it's not really likely (Canelo by decision is most likely) but 8/1 is very good odds all things considered. I mean GGG by stoppage is almost even money and if he does go for the knockout which he will he's going to put himself in significant danger of getting knocked out. Canelo is a very good counter-puncher with good timing so he could catch him with a hard shot coming in. If I was betting i'd just bet on Canelo straight up or maybe by decision at 2-1 but this is definitely where the value is.
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Old 09-15-2017, 04:49 PM #36
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There is also a wildcard. The referee is Probably handpicked by GBP. If Golovkin gets into trouble we might see a premature stoppage
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Old 09-17-2017, 08:20 PM #37
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There is also a wildcard. The referee is Probably handpicked by GBP. If Golovkin gets into trouble we might see a premature stoppage
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